PA: Harper - TIE (user search)
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psychprofessor
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,293


« on: November 04, 2016, 01:47:50 PM »

Just some fun cross tabs:

Trump wins 18-39 year olds
Trump wins 40-54 year olds

The black vote breaks down 73/18 for Clinton - really?

Clinton only wins 77% of Democrats - really?

They are tied using the most strict voter screen (extremely likely): 46-46, but when you look open it up to very likely, Clinton 50-37 and somewhat likely, Clinton 50-16.

Trump winning college graduates 54-39

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psychprofessor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,293


« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2016, 01:54:42 PM »

Just some fun cross tabs:

Trump wins 18-39 year olds
Trump wins 40-54 year olds

The black vote breaks down 73/18 for Clinton - really?

Clinton only wins 77% of Democrats - really?

They are tied using the most strict voter screen (extremely likely): 46-46, but when you look open it up to very likely, Clinton 50-37 and somewhat likely, Clinton 50-16.

Trump winning college graduates 54-39



What kind of bullsh**t LV screen is this?

How is the difference that big between "extremely likely" and "very likely"?

No, in the sample, extremely likely voters are 46-46 - I think that's what they are reporting. But the very likely sample is Hillary 50-37, and somewhat likely sample is 50-16 Clinton...I think they excluded very likely and somewhat likely and just used the extremely likely sample
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psychprofessor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,293


« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2016, 01:56:09 PM »

Just some fun cross tabs:

Trump wins 18-39 year olds
Trump wins 40-54 year olds

The black vote breaks down 73/18 for Clinton - really?

Clinton only wins 77% of Democrats - really?

They are tied using the most strict voter screen (extremely likely): 46-46, but when you look open it up to very likely, Clinton 50-37 and somewhat likely, Clinton 50-16.

Trump winning college graduates 54-39



What kind of bullsh**t LV screen is this?

How is the difference that big between "extremely likely" and "very likely"?

No, in the sample, extremely likely voters are 46-46 - I think that's what they are reporting. But the very likely sample is Hillary 50-37, and somewhat likely sample is 50-16 Clinton...I think they excluded very likely and somewhat likely and just used the extremely likely sample

But I mean, this is all MOE movement...they only had HRC up by 2 in Sept when she was up by 8-10, so this trendline isn't surprising.
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psychprofessor
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,293


« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2016, 03:57:06 PM »


LOL
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