PA: Harper - TIE (user search)
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Author Topic: PA: Harper - TIE  (Read 10014 times)
Mallow
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 737
United States


« on: November 04, 2016, 01:51:52 PM »

Just some fun cross tabs:

Trump wins 18-39 year olds
Trump wins 40-54 year olds

The black vote breaks down 73/18 for Clinton - really?

Clinton only wins 77% of Democrats - really?

They are tied using the most strict voter screen (extremely likely): 46-46, but when you look open it up to very likely, Clinton 50-37 and somewhat likely, Clinton 50-16.

Trump winning college graduates 54-39



What kind of bullsh**t LV screen is this?

How is the difference that big between "extremely likely" and "very likely"?
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Mallow
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 737
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2016, 02:01:19 PM »

Just some fun cross tabs:

Trump wins 18-39 year olds
Trump wins 40-54 year olds

The black vote breaks down 73/18 for Clinton - really?

Clinton only wins 77% of Democrats - really?

They are tied using the most strict voter screen (extremely likely): 46-46, but when you look open it up to very likely, Clinton 50-37 and somewhat likely, Clinton 50-16.

Trump winning college graduates 54-39



What kind of bullsh**t LV screen is this?

How is the difference that big between "extremely likely" and "very likely"?

No, in the sample, extremely likely voters are 46-46 - I think that's what they are reporting. But the very likely sample is Hillary 50-37, and somewhat likely sample is 50-16 Clinton...I think they excluded very likely and somewhat likely and just used the extremely likely sample

Gotcha. What are the total number of people in each of those subsamples?
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