PA: Harper - TIE
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Author Topic: PA: Harper - TIE  (Read 10015 times)
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #25 on: November 04, 2016, 01:56:41 PM »

Just some fun cross tabs:

Trump wins 18-39 year olds
Trump wins 40-54 year olds

The black vote breaks down 73/18 for Clinton - really?

Clinton only wins 77% of Democrats - really?

They are tied using the most strict voter screen (extremely likely): 46-46, but when you look open it up to very likely, Clinton 50-37 and somewhat likely, Clinton 50-16.

Trump winning college graduates 54-39



What kind of bullsh**t LV screen is this?

How is the difference that big between "extremely likely" and "very likely"?

No, in the sample, extremely likely voters are 46-46 - I think that's what they are reporting. But the very likely sample is Hillary 50-37, and somewhat likely sample is 50-16 Clinton...I think they excluded very likely and somewhat likely and just used the extremely likely sample

May that gives you an inkling about how the undecideds may split.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #26 on: November 04, 2016, 01:57:26 PM »

SAD!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #27 on: November 04, 2016, 01:59:16 PM »

Just some fun cross tabs:

Trump wins 18-39 year olds
Trump wins 40-54 year olds

The black vote breaks down 73/18 for Clinton - really?

Clinton only wins 77% of Democrats - really?

They are tied using the most strict voter screen (extremely likely): 46-46, but when you look open it up to very likely, Clinton 50-37 and somewhat likely, Clinton 50-16.

Trump winning college graduates 54-39



What kind of bullsh**t LV screen is this?

How is the difference that big between "extremely likely" and "very likely"?

No, in the sample, extremely likely voters are 46-46 - I think that's what they are reporting. But the very likely sample is Hillary 50-37, and somewhat likely sample is 50-16 Clinton...I think they excluded very likely and somewhat likely and just used the extremely likely sample

It's obvious that the "extremely likely" voters are, well, more likely to vote than the other two categories.  But it's ridiculous to think that nobody in the lower categories will vote.  Perhaps they should weight the results by likelihood, e.g. 1.0 for extremely likely, 0.7 for very likely, 0.3 for somewhat likely, etc.  (Don't quibble about the specific weights; I just picked them for example purposes.)
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #28 on: November 04, 2016, 01:59:41 PM »


It sounds like, to me, anything below a B+ rating is dogsh**t, considering Gravis and this are both rated B.

Probably, but a lot of Red hacks seems enjoing dogsh*t, when it shows a good numbers. Wounder why Roll Eyes
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #29 on: November 04, 2016, 02:00:00 PM »

Trash poll. Please next.
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Mallow
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« Reply #30 on: November 04, 2016, 02:01:19 PM »

Just some fun cross tabs:

Trump wins 18-39 year olds
Trump wins 40-54 year olds

The black vote breaks down 73/18 for Clinton - really?

Clinton only wins 77% of Democrats - really?

They are tied using the most strict voter screen (extremely likely): 46-46, but when you look open it up to very likely, Clinton 50-37 and somewhat likely, Clinton 50-16.

Trump winning college graduates 54-39



What kind of bullsh**t LV screen is this?

How is the difference that big between "extremely likely" and "very likely"?

No, in the sample, extremely likely voters are 46-46 - I think that's what they are reporting. But the very likely sample is Hillary 50-37, and somewhat likely sample is 50-16 Clinton...I think they excluded very likely and somewhat likely and just used the extremely likely sample

Gotcha. What are the total number of people in each of those subsamples?
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #31 on: November 04, 2016, 02:02:30 PM »

Just some fun cross tabs:

Trump wins 18-39 year olds
Trump wins 40-54 year olds

The black vote breaks down 73/18 for Clinton - really?

Clinton only wins 77% of Democrats - really?

They are tied using the most strict voter screen (extremely likely): 46-46, but when you look open it up to very likely, Clinton 50-37 and somewhat likely, Clinton 50-16.

Trump winning college graduates 54-39

What kind of bullsh**t LV screen is this?

That is insane. What kind of crap are they trying to pull ?
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dspNY
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« Reply #32 on: November 04, 2016, 02:03:42 PM »

Junk Republcan pollsters are popping up like weeds this election cycle
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #33 on: November 04, 2016, 02:11:36 PM »

Junk Republcan pollsters are popping up like weeds this election cycle

The purpose is for when we lose, Trump can call it rigged and use the rationale that all the polls were calling it for us last week. Highly respected Gravis. Harper - a firm who called it perfectly for a Democrat in 2014. Strategic Vision 3200. Even the up-and-coming Wainwright Analytics had us closing in in Oregon. Pick your poison. They all were calling it for us. #Rigged #Revolution
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Ebsy
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« Reply #34 on: November 04, 2016, 02:18:41 PM »

lol
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JJC
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« Reply #35 on: November 04, 2016, 02:31:47 PM »

Even if Clinton wins it, I think it's possible that PA will be more Republican the nation as a whole for the first time since... ?

Depends on Philly turnout but I agree it could happen. The demographics are very favorable to Trump.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #36 on: November 04, 2016, 02:32:22 PM »

Junk Republcan pollsters are popping up like weeds this election cycle

The purpose is for when we lose, Trump can call it rigged and use the rationale that all the polls were calling it for us last week. Highly respected Gravis. Harper - a firm who called it perfectly for a Democrat in 2014. Strategic Vision 3200. Even the up-and-coming Wainwright Analytics had us closing in in Oregon. Pick your poison. They all were calling it for us. #Rigged #Revolution

AHahahaahahahahahaahahahahahahahahahhaahahahahahahahahaah.

It DOES sound reasonble and this strategi MIGHT come from Trump. #MakePollsRiggedAgain
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Ebsy
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« Reply #37 on: November 04, 2016, 02:32:40 PM »

lol you idiots believing that Pennsylvania will have an R PVI. This is too good.
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alomas
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« Reply #38 on: November 04, 2016, 03:00:45 PM »

It might be a bit favourable to Trump but I wouldn't say it is rubbish. Clinton was 3 up in PA coming into today according to RCP and the previous poll was taken just before the debate when Trump was strongest.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #39 on: November 04, 2016, 03:53:33 PM »

was just a matter of time

http://www.latlmes.com/nation/breaking-pa-poll-trump-47-hillary-42-1
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #40 on: November 04, 2016, 03:56:53 PM »


Bless you!
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #41 on: November 04, 2016, 03:57:06 PM »


LOL
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #42 on: November 04, 2016, 04:03:03 PM »


It is big!

"A-" pollster Trump+5. Trump is taking more votes from Johnson and undecided.

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dirks
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« Reply #43 on: November 05, 2016, 04:48:07 PM »

Hey you can cling to PeePeePee and we'll stick to Harper. Who knows really. P.A. is a tossup now but trending trump.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #44 on: November 05, 2016, 04:50:30 PM »


It is big!

"A-" pollster Trump+5. Trump is taking more votes from Johnson and undecided.

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I laughed out loud for two minutes straight at this post. LittleBigGullible is going to get a shock on Tuesday...
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Ebsy
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« Reply #45 on: November 05, 2016, 04:52:32 PM »

Hey you can cling to PeePeePee and we'll stick to Harper. Who knows really. P.A. is a tossup now but trending trump.
PPP 2012 final poll: Obama +6
2012 Actual Result: Obama +5.4

Harper didn't open until after the 2012 election but has been singularly terrible in almost every race they have polled, including showing a tied race in Michigan in 2014.
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Sbane
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« Reply #46 on: November 05, 2016, 04:58:43 PM »


It is big!

"A-" pollster Trump+5. Trump is taking more votes from Johnson and undecided.

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Click the link bro.
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Lachi
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« Reply #47 on: November 05, 2016, 05:39:34 PM »

"B-" pollster.

They had Clinton +2 SEP. 21-22.


Nov 2-3:

Clinton 46 (+1)
Trump 46  (+3)
Johnson 2  (-6) 


Johnson is collapsing towards Trump. Plausible.
Ratings don't mean anything anymore.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #48 on: November 05, 2016, 05:47:09 PM »


It is big!

"A-" pollster Trump+5. Trump is taking more votes from Johnson and undecided.

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Click the link bro.
Eh.. what?

I'll give you a change to explain before judging you Undecided
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #49 on: November 05, 2016, 05:49:20 PM »


It is big!

"A-" pollster Trump+5. Trump is taking more votes from Johnson and undecided.

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Click the link bro.
Eh.. what?

I'll give you a change to explain before judging you Undecided

If you're talking about the LA Times, that link above is a joke; they have no such poll that shows T+5.
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