PA: Harper - TIE
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 06:11:22 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  PA: Harper - TIE
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3
Author Topic: PA: Harper - TIE  (Read 10016 times)
Terry the Fat Shark
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,502
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 04, 2016, 01:33:19 PM »

http://harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-statewide-poll--11-2-3
Trump - 46
Clinton - 46
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,603
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2016, 01:34:32 PM »

time for panic again Cheesy
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,166
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2016, 01:35:00 PM »

Before everyone wets themselves, this is an (R). They had Clinton+2 in late September. Same kind of small slide, then, that everyone else showed from Comey.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2016, 01:35:46 PM »

Considering that this is Harper, I'm not too worried.
Logged
BoAtlantis
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 791


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2016, 01:36:29 PM »

No need for panic. Hillary will take PA.
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,603
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2016, 01:36:39 PM »

Before everyone wets themselves, this is an (R). They had Clinton+2 in late September. Same kind of small slide, then, that everyone else showed from Comey.

interesting

B- according to 538 with a tiny pro-D-house effect.
Logged
Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,376
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2016, 01:36:43 PM »

So Clinton by 10.  NOICE!!!
Logged
Buzz
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,186


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2016, 01:37:12 PM »

This ain't over yet!
Logged
Terry the Fat Shark
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,502
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2016, 01:38:17 PM »

From wikipedia IIRC:
Harper Polling correctly polled the 2013 Senate special election in Massachusetts. Harper predicted the outcome of the New Jersey Senate special election to the exact margin of 11%. [7]

Harper has also polled the 2014 Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor race and the 2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.[8][9] Harper was the only Pennsylvania pollster to predict the size of Tom Wolf's landslide Democratic primary victory for Governor. [10]
Logged
Ozymandias
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 470


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2016, 01:38:54 PM »

SENATE: McGinty - 44, Toomey - 44
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2016, 01:39:23 PM »

Even if Clinton wins it, I think it's possible that PA will be more Republican the nation as a whole for the first time since... ?
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2016, 01:39:31 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2016, 01:41:42 PM by Happy Sad Trumpista »

"B-" pollster.

They had Clinton +2 SEP. 21-22.


Nov 2-3:

Clinton 46 (+1)
Trump 46  (+3)
Johnson 2  (-6)  


Johnson is collapsing towards Trump. Plausible.
Logged
Hammy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,711
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2016, 01:41:48 PM »

From wikipedia IIRC:
Harper Polling correctly polled the 2013 Senate special election in Massachusetts. Harper predicted the outcome of the New Jersey Senate special election to the exact margin of 11%. [7]

Harper has also polled the 2014 Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor race and the 2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election.[8][9] Harper was the only Pennsylvania pollster to predict the size of Tom Wolf's landslide Democratic primary victory for Governor. [10]

So essentially what you're saying is they'd be right if this wasn't a presidential year.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2016, 01:42:18 PM »

Junk Polls come out at... daytime?
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,603
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2016, 01:43:02 PM »

all depends on philly.

if philly and "the collar" get out the vote, western PA isn't a factor anymore.

since the PA subs have been quite pro-obama in 2012, i can't see them being more pro-trumo in 2016.
Logged
psychprofessor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,293


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2016, 01:47:50 PM »

Just some fun cross tabs:

Trump wins 18-39 year olds
Trump wins 40-54 year olds

The black vote breaks down 73/18 for Clinton - really?

Clinton only wins 77% of Democrats - really?

They are tied using the most strict voter screen (extremely likely): 46-46, but when you look open it up to very likely, Clinton 50-37 and somewhat likely, Clinton 50-16.

Trump winning college graduates 54-39

Logged
Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2016, 01:49:29 PM »

Just some fun cross tabs:

Trump wins 18-39 year olds
Trump wins 40-54 year olds

The black vote breaks down 73/18 for Clinton - really?

Clinton only wins 77% of Democrats - really?

They are tied using the most strict voter screen (extremely likely): 46-46, but when you look open it up to very likely, Clinton 50-37 and somewhat likely, Clinton 50-16.

Trump winning college graduates 54-39



What kind of bullsh**t LV screen is this?
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,166
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2016, 01:49:59 PM »

Just some fun cross tabs:

Trump wins 18-39 year olds
Trump wins 40-54 year olds

The black vote breaks down 73/18 for Clinton - really?

Clinton only wins 77% of Democrats - really?

They are tied using the most strict voter screen (extremely likely): 46-46, but when you look open it up to very likely, Clinton 50-37 and somewhat likely, Clinton 50-16.

Trump winning college graduates 54-39



What kind of bullsh**t LV screen is this?

Bahahaha these are AMAZING.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2016, 01:50:43 PM »

What kind of bullsh**t LV screen is this?

It is so good, that they earned "B-" Tongue
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,166
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2016, 01:51:30 PM »


You don't need to keep telling us how bad Nate Silver has been this cycle.
Logged
Mallow
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 737
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2016, 01:51:52 PM »

Just some fun cross tabs:

Trump wins 18-39 year olds
Trump wins 40-54 year olds

The black vote breaks down 73/18 for Clinton - really?

Clinton only wins 77% of Democrats - really?

They are tied using the most strict voter screen (extremely likely): 46-46, but when you look open it up to very likely, Clinton 50-37 and somewhat likely, Clinton 50-16.

Trump winning college graduates 54-39



What kind of bullsh**t LV screen is this?

How is the difference that big between "extremely likely" and "very likely"?
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2016, 01:52:22 PM »


It sounds like, to me, anything below a B+ rating is dogsh**t, considering Gravis and this are both rated B.
Logged
Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2016, 01:53:11 PM »

Clinton will win PA by +2.
Logged
psychprofessor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,293


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: November 04, 2016, 01:54:42 PM »

Just some fun cross tabs:

Trump wins 18-39 year olds
Trump wins 40-54 year olds

The black vote breaks down 73/18 for Clinton - really?

Clinton only wins 77% of Democrats - really?

They are tied using the most strict voter screen (extremely likely): 46-46, but when you look open it up to very likely, Clinton 50-37 and somewhat likely, Clinton 50-16.

Trump winning college graduates 54-39



What kind of bullsh**t LV screen is this?

How is the difference that big between "extremely likely" and "very likely"?

No, in the sample, extremely likely voters are 46-46 - I think that's what they are reporting. But the very likely sample is Hillary 50-37, and somewhat likely sample is 50-16 Clinton...I think they excluded very likely and somewhat likely and just used the extremely likely sample
Logged
psychprofessor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,293


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: November 04, 2016, 01:56:09 PM »

Just some fun cross tabs:

Trump wins 18-39 year olds
Trump wins 40-54 year olds

The black vote breaks down 73/18 for Clinton - really?

Clinton only wins 77% of Democrats - really?

They are tied using the most strict voter screen (extremely likely): 46-46, but when you look open it up to very likely, Clinton 50-37 and somewhat likely, Clinton 50-16.

Trump winning college graduates 54-39



What kind of bullsh**t LV screen is this?

How is the difference that big between "extremely likely" and "very likely"?

No, in the sample, extremely likely voters are 46-46 - I think that's what they are reporting. But the very likely sample is Hillary 50-37, and somewhat likely sample is 50-16 Clinton...I think they excluded very likely and somewhat likely and just used the extremely likely sample

But I mean, this is all MOE movement...they only had HRC up by 2 in Sept when she was up by 8-10, so this trendline isn't surprising.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.05 seconds with 13 queries.