UT - Monmouth: Trump +6
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Author Topic: UT - Monmouth: Trump +6  (Read 4082 times)
Speed of Sound
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« on: November 03, 2016, 12:02:25 PM »
« edited: November 03, 2016, 12:05:40 PM by Speed of Sound »

Among 402 LVs, Oct. 30-Nov. 2:

Trump 37 (+3 since early October)
Clinton 31 (+3)
McMullin 24 (+4)
Johnson 4
Stein 1

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_UT_110316/
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2016, 12:02:34 PM »

New Utah poll from Monmouth:

Trump: 37%
Clinton: 31%
McMullin: 24%
Johnson: 4%

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/794222617377046528
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2016, 12:03:08 PM »

2nd poll in a row to show McMullin in 3rd in UT, RIP :/
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2016, 12:03:27 PM »

RIP MCMUFFIN Cry
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Buzz
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2016, 12:03:54 PM »

Thank you Utah!
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2016, 12:03:59 PM »

2nd poll in a row to show McMullin in 3rd in UT, RIP Sad
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2016, 12:06:57 PM »

clinton over 30?

madness.
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adrac
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2016, 12:09:35 PM »

Tumbling down, tumbling down...
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2016, 12:11:36 PM »

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Senator Cris
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2016, 12:12:10 PM »

Sad
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2016, 12:46:34 PM »

Support by party:

Dems
Clinton 86%
Johnson 6%
McMullin 5%
Trump 2%
Stein 0%

GOP
Trump 56%
McMullin 34%
Clinton 4%
Johnson 2%
Stein 0%

Indies
Trump 34%
Clinton 32%
McMullin 24%
Johnson 5%
Stein 1%

By religion:

Mormon:
Trump 43%
McMullin 37%
Clinton 14%
Johnson 2%
Stein 0%

non-Mormon:
Clinton 54%
Trump 29%
Johnson 7%
McMullin 7%
Stein 1%

other demos:
men: Trump +12 over Clinton
women: Clinton +1 over Trump
age 18-49: Trump +3 over McMullin
age 50+: Trump +3 over Clinton
no college degree: Trump +14 over Clinton
college degree: Clinton +1 over McMullin/Trump

McMullin’s base seems to be Mormons under 50 with a college degree.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2016, 12:49:18 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2016, 12:51:00 PM by Mr. Morden »

fav/unfav %:
McMullin 36/16% for +20%
Clinton 23/66% for -43%
Trump 22/67% for -45%

So we still have a whopping 48% of Utah voters with no opinion of McMullin.  He does have net positive favorable %s among every demographic group though.  Even Democrats.
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Cashew
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2016, 01:00:29 PM »

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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2016, 02:40:08 PM »

New Poll: Utah President by Monmouth University on 2016-11-02

Summary: D: 31%, R: 37%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Zioneer
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2016, 03:34:39 PM »

I'm waiting on local pollsters like Dan Jones to release a poll before I mourn McMullin's McMomentuem falling away.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2016, 03:46:22 PM »

Seems like the robocalls really did a number to McMullin. Sad
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The Hunt for the Red October Surprise
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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2016, 05:29:38 PM »

Isn't Monmouth the one that hid third parties under "other" the last time they pulled Utah?

Edit: Regardless, they didn't this time. That's good of them.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2016, 05:31:16 PM »

So, no President McMullin then.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2016, 05:40:22 PM »


Well Obama did get 34% of the vote in 2008, so not totally shocked to see Clinton bringing many of those voters back.... Obviously we can't compare 2012 to either 2008 or 2016, because of the historic nature of the Romney candidacy with a community that has faced long and deep-standing religious discrimination in America, so I would look at 2008 as more of a potential Clinton ceiling in Utah.

If Clinton can hold that number and McMullen adds a few more points from Trump, then suddenly Utah numbers look really interesting.

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NUPES Enjoyer
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« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2016, 12:21:06 AM »

Seems like McMuffin's chances are slipping away. Shame. Sad
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2016, 12:35:53 AM »

Seems like McMuffin's chances are slipping away. Shame. Sad

This was inevitable as soon as it was discovered that just maybe Hillary would get the state if McMullin was given more slack.
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NUPES Enjoyer
Antonio V
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« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2016, 12:52:06 AM »

Seems like McMuffin's chances are slipping away. Shame. Sad

This was inevitable as soon as it was discovered that just maybe Hillary would get the state if McMullin was given more slack.


That's a pretty ridiculous assumption for people to make, since she actually was polling in third in the polls that had McMuffin competitive. There are quite a few McMuffin voters who will actually come back to her if he collapses.
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