FL: Opinion Savvy- Clinton +4

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Now that's more like it!

[mark_twain]

These results are pro-Clinton, for one good reason--early (and absentee) votes.

The FL polls that favor Trump tend not to consider early voting, but so far, the two FL polls taking early voting into account have resulted in favor of Clinton by +8 and +4 (this poll).

Because early voting in FL strongly favors Clinton and makes up a good percentage of total votes, it makes a significant difference.

[Dutch Conservative]

Small sample, not a very good pollster. But still, I think neither Trump nor Clinton can feel confident about Florida. Ultimate swingstate.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

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It's right there, folks.  Republican Cubans are swinging to Clinton.  

So....You make fun of the A- WMUR poll, but the C- Opinion Savvy poll must be right....right?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

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It's right there, folks.  Republican Cubans are swinging to Clinton.  

So....You make fun of the A- WMUR poll, but the C- Opinion Savvy poll must be right....right?

I don't care what dopey hack Nate Silver has to say about pollsters and their quality.  I've got far too much experience to be swayed by whatever nonsense models he is coming up with to get clicks.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

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It's right there, folks.  Republican Cubans are swinging to Clinton.  

So....You make fun of the A- WMUR poll, but the C- Opinion Savvy poll must be right....right?

I don't care what dopey hack Nate Silver has to say about pollsters and their quality.  I've got far too much experience to be swayed by whatever nonsense models he is coming up with to get clicks.

You sound like a Romney 2012 supporter....

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's right there, folks.  Republican Cubans are swinging to Clinton.  

So....You make fun of the A- WMUR poll, but the C- Opinion Savvy poll must be right....right?

I don't care what dopey hack Nate Silver has to say about pollsters and their quality.  I've got far too much experience to be swayed by whatever nonsense models he is coming up with to get clicks.

You sound like a Romney 2012 supporter....

How?  All he did was average polls in 2012.  Now he's playing around with unskewing them and other nonsense and assigning house effects based on almost nothing.  He's clearly jumped the shark.  I've moved onto Nate Cohn for anaylsis who clearly has a clue.

And it's not like I'm claiming a clearly losing candidate is actually winning because of Party ID and other fluid factors.  I'm just looking at the demographics. 

[Terry the Fat Shark]

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It's right there, folks.  Republican Cubans are swinging to Clinton.  

So....You make fun of the A- WMUR poll, but the C- Opinion Savvy poll must be right....right?

I don't care what dopey hack Nate Silver has to say about pollsters and their quality.  I've got far too much experience to be swayed by whatever nonsense models he is coming up with to get clicks.

You sound like a Romney 2012 supporter....

How?  All he did was average polls in 2012.  Now he's playing around with unskewing them and other nonsense and assigning house effects based on almost nothing.  He's clearly jumped the shark.  I've moved onto Nate Cohn who clearly has a clue.

Romney 2012 supporters (including myself, hate to admit) dismissed Silver in 2012 for showing an "unrealistic" outcome and thought the race was much closer, in this case I assume you think Clinton leads by a lot more than 538 does

[Devout Centrist]

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It's right there, folks.  Republican Cubans are swinging to Clinton.  

So....You make fun of the A- WMUR poll, but the C- Opinion Savvy poll must be right....right?

I don't care what dopey hack Nate Silver has to say about pollsters and their quality.  I've got far too much experience to be swayed by whatever nonsense models he is coming up with to get clicks.

You sound like a Romney 2012 supporter....

Nate's taken Marist polls and 'adjusted' them by five points. I can understand with partisan outfits like Greenberg Quinlan or Remington, but with a pollster he rates so highly?

[bilaps]

EV numbers could be true. Still, i think if Clinton wins it it's 1 or 2 points.

[ProudModerate2]

the 4% is back

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's right there, folks.  Republican Cubans are swinging to Clinton.  

So....You make fun of the A- WMUR poll, but the C- Opinion Savvy poll must be right....right?

I don't care what dopey hack Nate Silver has to say about pollsters and their quality.  I've got far too much experience to be swayed by whatever nonsense models he is coming up with to get clicks.

You sound like a Romney 2012 supporter....

How?  All he did was average polls in 2012.  Now he's playing around with unskewing them and other nonsense and assigning house effects based on almost nothing.  He's clearly jumped the shark.  I've moved onto Nate Cohn who clearly has a clue.

Romney 2012 supporters (including myself, hate to admit) dismissed Silver in 2012 for showing an "unrealistic" outcome and thought the race was much closer, in this case I assume you think Clinton leads by a lot more than 538 does

Yes, because he's pissing around with the polls WAY too much.  He wasn't doing this nearly as much in 2012.  And, not to say you did this personally, the general GOP unskew in 2012 had everything to do with Party ID and making broad assumptions that Democrats HAVE to be over-sampled.  Well, that's a fluid number.  If you asked me in April what I was I would've said Independent.  Today, I'd ID as a Dem.  Demographics are not fluid, and I still think they point to Clinton leading by 5-6 and winning by 8-9 in the end.

[BoAtlantis]

This makes me feel better about the tightening in NH and CO.

[Pyro]

Florida would be quite the prize for Clinton.
Trump could pick up OH, NV, WI, MI, NH, NC and ME-2 and still lose.

[Senator Cris]

Regardless of the candidate each one of us support, the reactions of democratic hacks are strange.
A good pollster (in terms of record) that shows good results for Trump is a "junk poll", a C- pollster like OpinionSavvy is a "tremendous poll", "great news".

What makes you think I care what sweaty dog and confirmed Republican hack Nate Silver grades a pollster?  I know ARG sucks because I've watched ARG suck for almost 20 years, not because he gave them a C+.  

And it's obvious that Cubans are swinging hard to Clinton.  These are not difficult concepts and you should get your doggy shampoo ready for Tuesday.

First: I'm not speaking of ARG polls. We all know that it's garbage.
Second: "you should get your doggy shampoo ready for Tuesday.". I'm not giving any confidence to you, so please do the same.
Third: If Clinton wins on Tuesday, I'll be more than happy. I am and was against Trump from the first day of his campaign, even when some democratic hacks that now are supporting Clinton were on the Trump train (ironically or not) and made this board even more so low-quality than now with their way of posting.

[Wiz in Wis]

Ugh... can we add this one, and the Univ Colorado poll and Magellan Strategies polls in CO, to the database. Please. I feel like we're only entering the Trump ones now.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Great Honer! Thank you Florida!!

The Orange Clown is COLLAPSING folks, its over.

[Hammy]

Normally I'd be skeptical here, but this is close in line with CNN's poll a day or so ago.

[Crumpets]

Trump is running out of time to pull ahead in Florida. So many votes have already been cast, that even if it is actually Clinton +1 or dead even, Trump needs another bombshell.

[Rand]

#GoHillary ... put Pussygrabber McBrankruptcy away in five days.

[IceSpear]

Why do people bring up Nate "Discredited Fraud" Silver in every thread? It's getting old. We have a 538 thread for a reason.

Stupendous poll!