WI-MU Law: Clinton +6

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Oh, thank God.

Halleluja

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Is there any solid evidence the Comey letter is having any impact at all?  Republicans and right-independents were breaking for Trump before the Comey news broke, and Friday didn't seem to change that trajectory.  Meanwhile Clinton is holding steady.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Is there any solid evidence the Comey letter is having any impact at all?  Republicans and right-independents were breaking for Trump before the Comey news broke, and Friday didn't seem to change that trajectory.  Meanwhile Clinton is holding steady.

Yeah, if anything, the more likely culprit is Obamacare news giving Republicans and Republican leaning indies an excuse to vote for Trump.

I agree.  If Comeygate were really an issue, we'd see Hillary's numbers dropping, but in national polling, Clinton continues to hover around 48-49% - plenty to win the PV, possibly a majority considering how many people voted early.

Hillary supporters at this point are pro-ACA, or at least fear what a GOP-controlled Washington could do to their insurance.  They aren't going to be swayed by fear-mongering over a rate increase that doesn't affect a lot of them.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).

I suspect for Trump to win BIGLY in WI-06 and WI-08, very blue collar, low income/education area. Overall he'll lose the state though.

oh I agree - I think the ceiling is just too low for a Trump win unless there was a competent Sanders-like third party training support from Clinton, and that's not happening obviously.

For eastern WI those are the only areas where you see Trump signs out there a LOT. Down here in the Milwaukee metro you see some, it has picked up somewhat but there are a lot more Johnson/Ryan/local signs and not nearly as many Trump ones. Up there in the country you drive down the highway and see 20 HUGE Trumper signs to 1 small Clinton. Obviously signs don't mean anything but polling shows it as well.

EDIT: Also why I have no idea why a lot of people think WI-08 will be a Dem pickup.

It will be close.  But WI-08 doesn't send non-celebrity Democrats to Washington.

Incidentally, sometime in Atlas After Dark I should tell you about the "incident" my friends and I had with Jay Johnson back in 1994.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Nothing surprising here, though the breakdown of the people worried about the emails was interesting--less care about it days later than before the Comey story.

Friday: Denial, Anger
Saturday: Bargaining
Sunday: Depression
Monday: Acceptance

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

She'll win the state by about 6-8%, probably on the low end of that. She already has my submitted vote too.

You're not the only WI-R to vote for her.  My parents are doing so as well (while holding their noses).

Bless all of you.