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March 05, 2021, 12:36:17 PM

  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA (search mode)
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Author Topic: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA  (Read 6128 times)
jaichind
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*****
Posts: 15,251
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« on: November 02, 2016, 11:06:47 AM »

CNN/ORC polls: AZ: Trump 49 Clinton 44 NV: Trump 49 Clinton 43 FL: Clinton 49 Trump 47 PA Clinton 48 Trump 44

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/index.html
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 15,251
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2016, 11:08:06 AM »

NV looks off given the other numbers.
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 15,251
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2016, 11:25:45 AM »


Yes, but I believe 538 make adjustments not just on its derived House effects of the pollster but also on how far off the poll result is from peer poll results. I know this methodology will lead to herding but that seems to be how 538 is doing it.
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