MI: New Strategic National Clinton +1

[JJC]

Not saying primary support is necessarily indicative of general performance in any way, but the GOP outvoting the dems in blue MI should be at least some cause for concern among democrats.

A reasonable analysis and part of me wants to be encouraged by what you say.

But since the MI primary, I've been bothered by that massive polling miss on the D side.  That was an out of this universe polling error.

My gut says there was a significant component of D crossover "meddling" voting for Trump.  (Remember, Michigan was an open primary.)  This could explain the D-side miss, however, the R-side relative accuracy doesn't back that up.  So I know it's a very debatable theory.

My point being, I'm not hanging my hat on the big R primary turnout.  Even without crossover/meddling effect, it's arguable D primary turnout was suppressed by the expectations that it wasn't at all competitive.

All of this is quite possible. We'll just have to wait and see.

One caveat - MI has a relatively high black population as compared to other northern sates (Trump's biggest obstacle there). However, if black turnout is falling 10-15% lower than 2012 (as it is in many swing states) Hillary may be in trouble. Because dems win blacks by 9-1 margins, even a marginal drop-off could have a large effect.

We will see.

[Hammy]

Part of me is wondering if they're putting these fake close/R-lead polls out so Trump can whine about vote rigging if he loses.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Remember when all polls used to be done by real polling companies that have existed for years/decades. What are these ing firms?

Strategic National is a consulting firm; they've been around for longer than 10 years, but I'm not sure how long they've done polling.

One thing that makes me worry about Michigan is the number of Trump yard signs I've seen in Wayne County--especially the blue collar suburbs (e.g., Lincoln Park, Wyandotte, Taylor, etc.) that have typically voted heavily Democratic.  I'm not to the point of saying Trump will win Michigan, but I definitely think he has a chance here.

Really...yard signs? Is that you Peggy Noonan?

I've sometimes seen more Sanders stuff than Hillary stuff in towns Hillary won by ~50 points. It means nothing.

I'm not saying it's a definitive indicator, but it is something that should concern the Clinton camp.  I'm not talking about just seeing Trump stuff in the cities overall... you have to ignore the yard signs placed in public places in order to get anything close to an accurate guess of support in the area; I'm talking about several Trump signs on streets where I've never seen a yard sign for a Republican candidate before.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

christ are we still talking about a huge outlier?

It's not really a huge outlier... It has Clinton below the average of other recent polls, but it's not that far off.