absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

You are in for a very rough election night if you think Trump has states like NC in the bag.

This isn't D v R, it's D v R v UnAf and that last category is what will decide this. I'd much rather be Clinton than Trump in NC right now.

[Speed of Sound]

I don't think Clinton is up by that much. It's lean D to be sure, but to say that Clinton already has it in the bag is just a little much, dux.

you got it wrong
trump has it in the bags

Lets it play it this way:

2012 D 893
2016 D 887

2012 R 585
2016 R 644

Clinton is underperforming Obama in 2012 at this point in early voting by some 70,000 votes. FYI Obama lost NC.

(i'm trolling you mate)

[Mehmentum]

I don't think Clinton is up by that much. It's lean D to be sure, but to say that Clinton already has it in the bag is just a little much, dux.

you got it wrong
trump has it in the bags

Lets it play it this way:

2012 D 893
2016 D 887

2012 R 585
2016 R 644

Clinton is underperforming Obama in 2012 at this point in early voting by some 70,000 votes. FYI Obama lost NC.

There's been a surge of dixiecrats finally switching their party registrations in the past 4 years.  This has led to Democrats losing registrations, but not actual voters.  In addition, the increase in unaffiliated early voters should be worrying to Republicans.  This group has demographics that are very strong for Democrats.

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale on FL

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

[Dr. Arch]

Steve Schale on FL

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

Holy moly (!!!!)

[Xing]

Steve Schale on FL

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

Are those statewide statistics?

[Ebsy]

Crazy.

[Fusionmunster]

Pollsters may be in for a rude awakening come Tuesday.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Steve Schale on FL

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

What's even better news is compared to 2012 hispanics voted republican like 39/60 in Florida, but this year it will be much lower. I've seen polls showing Trump in the mid 20's in hispanic support in this state.

Higher turn out(larger share of the electorate) + more favorable for the democratic candidate = winning.

[BoAtlantis]

Steve Schale on FL

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

Are those statewide statistics?

He didn't mention any counties so I assume so.

[dspNY]

Steve Schale on FL

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

Angry Puerto Ricans!

[Speed of Sound]

Steve Schale on FL

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

Angry Puerto Ricans!

oh waow

[Mike88]

Isn't it ironic, that after that former Arizona governor said that Trump would win because Hispanics don't vote, we are seeing a wave of Hispanics flocking to the polls? Karma is a bitch.

[BoAtlantis]

FL voters no one talking about---> "other/mixed race"

284K voted early
5.5% share
40D-36NPA-24R
31.2% no voting history
57% low propensity

[Lief 🗽]

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

What does this mean?

[dspNY]

Steve Schale on FL

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

Angry Puerto Ricans!

oh waow

And they could vote like their New York brothers and sisters...then Targetsmart guy might be on to something...

[dspNY]

Few more late night stats. This through Thurs.

34.5% of Dem
51.2% of NPA
27.8% of GOP
Dems have ~141k advantage

What does this mean?

Hillary Clinton is one big step closer to being President. Dems have turned out 141K more low propensity voters in FL

[dspNY]

Additionally, Catherine-Cortez Masto is likely to be the next senator from Nevada the way things are going there

[Fargobison]

On Thurs alone, 82.5% of Hispanic early voters were considered low propensity voters.
That's literally nuts.

But only Trump is supposed to have hidden voters. This can't be happening!

[BoAtlantis]

Orange County FL just came in.

24609 early votes. Dems with a +3100 margin. GOP outvotes indies by about 700. Dems win VBM by about 700 to make a +3800 margin today

He adds

"One more. Orange County Florida is now at 73% of its entire 2012 POTUS turnout.
Roughly 467K 2012 votes.
Over 343K have voted so far in 2016"

[Xing]

We won't be getting Clark numbers tonight, per Ralston. Wonder if we'll get anything from Washoe.

[BoAtlantis]

We won't be getting Clark numbers tonight, per Ralston. Wonder if we'll get anything from Washoe.

That's the bad news but the good news is below.

[dspNY]

Washoe:

Dems 6,058
GOP 5,820

If that's a simulation of E-Day turnout in swing or even Lean GOP counties, Trump is gonna get smoked. Dems go into E-Day with a larger advantage in Washoe than 2012

[Ebsy]

Game changer right there.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Yeah, don't piss off Latinos and Nev-ah-da voters:

https://twitter.com/LatinoDecisions/status/794753441750872064