absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[GeorgiaModerate]

Specifically, in Michigan you can vote early (absentee) only if you meet one of the following qualifications:

You’re physically disabled and as a result, you cannot vote on Election Day without another person’s assistance
You can’t vote on Election Day because of the tenets of your religion
You can’t vote on Election Day in the precinct where you reside because you are an election precinct inspector in another precinct
You’re 60 years of age or older
You’re absent or expect to be absent from the township or city in which you reside during the entire time the polls are open for voting on Election Day
You’re confined in jail awaiting arraignment or trial

The largest of these groups is people over 60 years of age, a Republican-heavy demographic.  So the Michigan early vote will naturally have a Republican lean.

[BoAtlantis]

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict  7m7 minutes ago
Horrific new voter registration data for GOP in CA: since '12, Ds have added 754,000 voters, Rs have lost 308,000.

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict  2m2 minutes ago
In GOP Rep. Darrell Issa's #CA49, Dems have cut GOP voter registration lead from 48.3k in '12 to 25.5k now. Big reason why he's in danger.

Horrific is right! This is my Assembly district since '12:

Democrat: 38.6% (+3.1)
Republican: 35.5% (-5.4)
NPP: 21.4% (+2.5)

[JimSharp]

This is why ALL states should just go all-mail. It increases turnout. It's efficient and reduces wait times.

There is no plausible argument against it.

It makes the ballot less secret. There are many women who say they are voting republican in front of their husbands to avoid conflict, but in the privacy of a booth vote differently.

Since mail-in periods are long enough, I can't imagine why that would be so problematic. They can find their own private time to mail it.

Voting is very easy. There are ridiculous numbers of polling places, and early and absentee voting in most states, etc. If someone can't handle putting in the thought on how to vote, they probably also haven't put enough thought into who they are going to vote for. I'm not sure I want that person voting for the leader of the free world.

Of course, it is not equally easy in all parts of the country. Duke students claim, for instance (dunno if true or not) that nearest polling site is 20 min bus ride from campus. If so, that is really messed up and probably part of intentional voter suppression.

And the bigger question is why should it be any more difficult that absolutely necessary? Again, if effort = quality vote, let's put the ballot box at the end of a maze, or only open it after the voter solves a riddle... There is 0 reason to make it harder than it has to be in any situation.

[dspNY]

Democrats win Pinellas County (St. Petersburg) by 250. GOP lead narrowed to 1,249 votes. If there's one major swing county I'm worried about in FL, this is it

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats win Pinellas County (St. Petersburg) by 250. GOP lead narrowed to 1,249 votes. If there's one major swing county I'm worried about in FL, this is it

How did Pinellas vote in 2008 and 2012?

[alomas]

I'm sure Clinton will win North Carolina by 6 points haha.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Democrats win Pinellas County (St. Petersburg) by 250. GOP lead narrowed to 1,249 votes. If there's one major swing county I'm worried about in FL, this is it

How did Pinellas vote in 2008 and 2012?

Obama won it twice.

[dspNY]

Democrats win Pinellas County (St. Petersburg) by 250. GOP lead narrowed to 1,249 votes. If there's one major swing county I'm worried about in FL, this is it

How did Pinellas vote in 2008 and 2012?

Obama +5.6 in 2012
Obama +8.2 in 2008
Bush won it by 226 votes in 2004 when he won the state by 5
Gore won it by 4% in 2000

[Erich Maria Remarque]

No, as I said many times (more then >3 times, for sure), this model is based on one poll only, but is using EV data as some kind of LV screen. So it is alread brought from +7 to +6. By 1%, which is (oh the irony) is a house effect of Sienna poll according to Nate Silver's model. And if the race have tightened (and it is indeed true), the estimation are wrong as well. But sigh...

#EducationInAmericaSucks
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/794694744303632385

It burns every part of my soul to say this, but LBP and me have indeed had to have this convo a few too many times. The entire projection is pegged to a single self run and oldish poll, which actually showed her one higher than voting is showing so far. Think of her as one back on polling....only if their poll hit their electorate and rates right. If that poll failed....this model is literally meaningless.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i think the daily comments of cohn regarding this matter have been VERY confusing.

[Ebsy]

i think the daily comments of cohn regarding this matter have been VERY confusing.

Cohn tried to have it both ways a lot of the time.

[swf541]

i think the daily comments of cohn regarding this matter have been VERY confusing.

I agree

[mark_twain]

More good news for Clinton in NC:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/04/politics/north-carolina-naacp-voter-registration/index.html


This could explain why black early voting started slow in NC.

It looks like NC blacks were handicapped through cancelled voter registrations.

They will be coming back to vote with a vengeance!

[Speed of Sound]

i think the daily comments of cohn regarding this matter have been VERY confusing.

Cohn tried to have it both ways a lot of the time.

For sure. He hasn't done it justice at all.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

i think the daily comments of cohn regarding this matter have been VERY confusing.

Cohn tried to have it both ways a lot of the time.

For sure. He hasn't done it justice at all.

I haven't liked his confidence in bitching at others, then when it comes to his own, he gets cagey AF.

[dspNY]

Clark turnout is crazy. expected to be over 50K now

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794708214264668160

[Speed of Sound]

Clark turnout is crazy. expected to be over 50K now

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794708214264668160

<33333

[ApatheticAustrian]

we are now trapped between dodgy cohn and perma-"EVERYTHINGCOULDHAPPEN!!!!!"-silver.

since NC isn't a monster state, there should be someone local at least half as capable as ralston to make sense of it.

[Classic Conservative]

Mark Preston of CNN was just saying that Republicans have a 17% percent advantage amongst whites in Florida.

[Yank2133]

Thus far, Democrats have about 40% of the Nevada early vote to about 36% for Republicans with 23% Indy.

Unfotunately, for the independents, a late CNN poll has them breaking 54 to 27 for Trump. In fact, every poll in NV I have found have had Indys breaking for Trump.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relnv3.pdf
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_Research_Nevada_October_31_2016.pdf

Many are looking at the 4 point lead in D to R voters and drawing early conclusions that N is going to go D. The truth is, if the polling of Indys is correct, the race is exteremly close.

Lol, Trumpkins still think he has a chance in NV based on a crappy CNN poll?

Dog sweat.....can smell all the way from VA.

[dspNY]

Mark Preston of CNN was just saying that Republicans have a 17% percent advantage amongst whites in Florida.

If Clinton is winning 41.5% of whites in Florida she wins FL going away. Obama only won 39% of Florida whites and Clinton's margin among a burgeoning Latino electorate will be larger than Obama's margin over Romney

Correction: Obama won only 37% of Florida whites, Romney won 61. So that's even WORSE for Trump if he is underperforming Romney by 6-7 points among whites. That would equal a Clinton +5 or Clinton +6 margin

[swf541]

Mark Preston of CNN was just saying that Republicans have a 17% percent advantage amongst whites in Florida.

Could be wrong, but that doesnt sound the best for Trump?  Thought Romney did better among whites in Florida than that?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

i think the daily comments of cohn regarding this matter have been VERY confusing.

No, he has always been consistent.

Mark Preston of CNN was just saying that Republicans have a 17% percent advantage amongst whites in Florida.

Poll? Or early voting so far?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Mark Preston of CNN was just saying that Republicans have a 17% percent advantage amongst whites in Florida.

Could be wrong, but that doesnt sound the best for Trump?  Thought Romney did better among whites in Florida than that?

If that's the case, then yes, that's a lethal under-performance.