absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[The Other Castro]

Idk how much the overall popular voting total is supposed to rise, but if it stayed the same total as 2012 (hypothetically), Latino vote share would rise from 8.7% to a range between 10.1%-11.4%.

[StatesPoll]

wow

Republican surge in Nevada. Early Voting 2nd week (11/2 9AM)
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555
In Person: DEM 39.89%  REP 37.79% Other 22.32%

Now Nevada=Likely TRUMP

Statespoll, Thank you for your contributions!! All we ever see is Liberals posting on this forum and posting whatever someone is stating in their favor. They tell you to go away because your posting facts they dont like, I LOVE IT. Please keep me up to date with these EV states! I appreciate your efforts!

Plus, I'd recommend to read this Thread
Red Avatars are happy because Hillary ahead +3% in YouGov National Poll, with D +21% skewed samples lol
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250666.0

[swf541]

Jeremy Bird ‏@jeremybird 24m24 minutes ago
More NC EV: Over past 3 days, 110K African Americans have voted in-person. 10% more than equivalent period in '12. #TurnNCBlue

So AA turnout is increasing....

[Maxwell]

maybe African Americans were just aiming to give white liberals a scare - good job guys!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Even Latino Decisions shows a 40-ish point margin for Clinton. What is the basis for your claim?

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/clinton-dominating-trump-among-florida-hispanics-in-new-poll-106082

This.

http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/8714/7689/5921/NALEO_Latino_Battleground_States_Toplines.pdf

63 - 23 Clinton, but with a relatively long time in the field.

I suppose you can pick whichever in this case, but LD has been pretty accurate in the past and the TargetSmart poll would lend credence to this defection.

Reading these posts online here of all liberals you would think trump was down with hispanics by 40-50% in FLorida, not the case obviously.

I'd say there is plenty of evidence to support both conclusions. You can assert that "no way he's down by 40 with FL latinos" if you want, but you are by no means on solid ground when you say that, and you should at least acknowledge that.

LD overestimated Obama's margin both times IIRC. (Not 100% sure)

TargetSmart, well...

[Speed of Sound]

Even Latino Decisions shows a 40-ish point margin for Clinton. What is the basis for your claim?

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/clinton-dominating-trump-among-florida-hispanics-in-new-poll-106082

This.

http://www.latinodecisions.com/files/8714/7689/5921/NALEO_Latino_Battleground_States_Toplines.pdf

63 - 23 Clinton, but with a relatively long time in the field.

I suppose you can pick whichever in this case, but LD has been pretty accurate in the past and the TargetSmart poll would lend credence to this defection.

Reading these posts online here of all liberals you would think trump was down with hispanics by 40-50% in FLorida, not the case obviously.

I'd say there is plenty of evidence to support both conclusions. You can assert that "no way he's down by 40 with FL latinos" if you want, but you are by no means on solid ground when you say that, and you should at least acknowledge that.

LD overestimated Obama's margin both times IIRC. (Not 100% sure)

TargetSmart, well...

Looks like they were a little bit Obama-friendly in '12. Couldn't find '08, though I didn't look hard.

LD 2012 final proj: 75-23
2012 Exit poll final: 71-27

[bilaps]

4k swing for R-s in a day in Colorado is a good news. I don't buy Mcdonald's theory on 7pt lead needed. Let's see what happens there. NV however still looks solid D. And good luck to all of you beleiving all is well for Ds in NC and FL. Just be a little objective. Black turnout in NC is dropping and you know it. You can think U category will vote for D but no evidence for that.

[swf541]

4k swing for R-s in a day in Colorado is a good news. I don't buy Mcdonald's theory on 7pt lead needed. Let's see what happens there. NV however still looks solid D. And good luck to all of you beleiving all is well for Ds in NC and FL. Just be a little objective. Black turnout in NC is dropping and you know it. You can think U category will vote for D but no evidence for that.

Its definitely not great in either, at the same time it isnt great for Trump.  And AA turnout is going up quite quickly with more voting places open. Its qutie clear a large chunk (though not all) of the turnout issue is the GOP slimy neo Jim Crow crackdown on voting

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

NC Status as of 10/28

                         Clinton       Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     686,000    462,000      56.7%     38.2% (18.5% gap)
Yet to vote        1,491,000   1,440,000    46.4%   44.8%
Total estimates   2,177,000   1,903,000   49.2%   43.0%

NC Status as of 10/30

                        Clinton      Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     878,000   653,000      54.9%    40.8% (14.1% gap)
Yet to vote        1,316,000   1,256,000   46.3%    44.2%
Total estimates   2,194,000   1,909,000   49.4%   43.0%   

NC Status as of 11/2

                      Clinton       Trump          Clinton   Trump
Already voted   1,110,000   897,000      52.9%   42.7% (10.2% gap)
Yet to vote        1,094,000   1,045,000    45.7%   43.7%
Total estimates   2,203,000   1,941,000   49.1%   43.2%

[Dr. Arch]

4k swing for R-s in a day in Colorado is a good news. I don't buy Mcdonald's theory on 7pt lead needed. Let's see what happens there. NV however still looks solid D. And good luck to all of you beleiving all is well for Ds in NC and FL. Just be a little objective. Black turnout in NC is dropping and you know it. You can think U category will vote for D but no evidence for that.

Its definitely not great in either, at the same time it isnt great for Trump.  And AA turnout is going up quite quickly with more voting places open. Its qutie clear a large chunk (though not all) of the turnout issue is the GOP slimy neo Jim Crow crackdown on voting

Note that Obama lost CO in the early vote by 2 and still scored a solid win.

[swf541]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

NC Status as of 10/28

                         Clinton       Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     686,000    462,000      56.7%     38.2% (18.5% gap)
Yet to vote        1,491,000   1,440,000    46.4%   44.8%
Total estimates   2,177,000   1,903,000   49.2%   43.0%

NC Status as of 10/30

                        Clinton      Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     878,000   653,000      54.9%    40.8% (14.1% gap)
Yet to vote        1,316,000   1,256,000   46.3%    44.2%
Total estimates   2,194,000   1,909,000   49.4%   43.0%   

NC Status as of 11/2

                      Clinton       Trump          Clinton   Trump
Already voted   1,110,000   897,000      52.9%   42.7% (10.2% gap)
Yet to vote        1,094,000   1,045,000    45.7%   43.7%
Total estimates   2,203,000   1,941,000   49.1%   43.2%

Looking pretty great there.  I hope their model is remotely accurate

[Xing]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

NC Status as of 10/28

                         Clinton       Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     686,000    462,000      56.7%     38.2% (18.5% gap)
Yet to vote        1,491,000   1,440,000    46.4%   44.8%
Total estimates   2,177,000   1,903,000   49.2%   43.0%

NC Status as of 10/30

                        Clinton      Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     878,000   653,000      54.9%    40.8% (14.1% gap)
Yet to vote        1,316,000   1,256,000   46.3%    44.2%
Total estimates   2,194,000   1,909,000   49.4%   43.0%   

NC Status as of 11/2

                      Clinton       Trump          Clinton   Trump
Already voted   1,110,000   897,000      52.9%   42.7% (10.2% gap)
Yet to vote        1,094,000   1,045,000    45.7%   43.7%
Total estimates   2,203,000   1,941,000   49.1%   43.2%

Looking pretty great there.  I hope their model is remotely accurate

I'm skeptical that NC will be a 6-point win for Hillary (unless the polls are off and we have a landslide on our hands), but the early vote is looking good so far.

[Frodo]

Looks like the black vote is returning to its pre-Obama norm:

Early voting update: Black vote declining with 24.4 million ballots cast

By Eric Bradner and Marshall Cohen, CNN
Updated 9:02 PM ET, Tue November 1, 2016

Washington (CNN)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

source

[BoAtlantis]

"Exclusive: Evidence that Democrats are Beginning to Ramp up GOTV in SE Florida (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach), where Clinton Needs to Turn out Democrats & NPAs"

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/02/exclusive-evidence-that-democrats-are-beginning-to-ramp-up-gotv-in-se-florida-miami-dade-broward-palm-beach-where-clinton-needs-to-turn-out-democrats-npas/

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

*insert Chicken Little meme here*

Kidding.

But really....

[StatesPoll]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

NC Status as of 10/28

                         Clinton       Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     686,000    462,000      56.7%     38.2% (18.5% gap)
Yet to vote        1,491,000   1,440,000    46.4%   44.8%
Total estimates   2,177,000   1,903,000   49.2%   43.0%

NC Status as of 10/30

                        Clinton      Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     878,000   653,000      54.9%    40.8% (14.1% gap)
Yet to vote        1,316,000   1,256,000   46.3%    44.2%
Total estimates   2,194,000   1,909,000   49.4%   43.0%   

NC Status as of 11/2

                      Clinton       Trump          Clinton   Trump
Already voted   1,110,000   897,000      52.9%   42.7% (10.2% gap)
Yet to vote        1,094,000   1,045,000    45.7%   43.7%
Total estimates   2,203,000   1,941,000   49.1%   43.2%

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html
NYT says
These aren’t official results. They’re just estimates. If our polling is wrong, then our conclusions could be wrong as well.
These aren’t official results. They’re just estimates. If our polling is wrong, then our conclusions could be wrong as well.
These aren’t official results. They’re just estimates. If our polling is wrong, then our conclusions could be wrong as well.

Plus, NYT enodrsed Hillary.

only Democrats would believe it

[Yank2133]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

NC Status as of 10/28

                         Clinton       Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     686,000    462,000      56.7%     38.2% (18.5% gap)
Yet to vote        1,491,000   1,440,000    46.4%   44.8%
Total estimates   2,177,000   1,903,000   49.2%   43.0%

NC Status as of 10/30

                        Clinton      Trump       Clinton     Trump
Already voted     878,000   653,000      54.9%    40.8% (14.1% gap)
Yet to vote        1,316,000   1,256,000   46.3%    44.2%
Total estimates   2,194,000   1,909,000   49.4%   43.0%   

NC Status as of 11/2

                      Clinton       Trump          Clinton   Trump
Already voted   1,110,000   897,000      52.9%   42.7% (10.2% gap)
Yet to vote        1,094,000   1,045,000    45.7%   43.7%
Total estimates   2,203,000   1,941,000   49.1%   43.2%

Looking pretty great there.  I hope their model is remotely accurate

I'm skeptical that NC will be a 6-point win for Hillary (unless the polls are off and we have a landslide on our hands), but the early vote is looking good so far.

Yeah, I think if she wins there it will be by 2-3 points. 6 point win means, she is winning by 8-9 nationally and I don't think that is the case.

[swf541]

Last week, I'd agree as of today I am much more conflicted as it seems to be increasing quite a bit atm. Will probably be somewhat lower but a major decline i do not think will occur as some on here are predicting.

[PresidentTRUMP]

How is this news?

People actually think AA will come out and vote 95-96% for HRC and with HUGE turnout like they did for Obama? Anyone who ever thought that would be the case is crazy.

[afleitch]

Returning to previous levels. If we take 2012 as a benchmark (using the 538 demographic calculator), a  10 point drop (which would be a recent historical low) in black turnout doesn't flip a state.

[Dr. Arch]

Last week, I'd agree as of today I am much more conflicted as it seems to be increasing quite a bit atm. Will probably be somewhat lower but a major decline i do not think will occur as some on here are predicting.

This

[Eraserhead]

Did anyone think that it wouldn't?

[PresidentTRUMP]

lol....come on now already....

Obama a SITTING president lost NC where the AA community came out in droves to vote for him still lost the state by close to 100,000 votes to Mitt Romney LOL. But yes HRC is going to flip a state Obama wasn't able too last cycle, literally comical.

AA accounted for 1,047,758 of the votes in NC, if Romney got 5% of that voting group he got 52,388 of the over 1,000,000 votes casted by AA and STILL lost the state 50% to 48%. Will AA turn out another 1MM plus vote tally in the state? I say NO CHANCE.

[Erc]

All the reports I'm seeing indicate a decline in the share of black vote among those voting early.

The actual numbers of black voters seem to be up, though clearly not up as much as hispanic (or white) voters.

Entirely possible this is just non-black voters discovering early voting is a thing, rather than any sort of real indication of enthusiasm among black voters.

[Ebsy]

lol....come on now already....

Obama a SITTING president lost NC where the AA community came out in droves to vote for him still lost the state by close to 100,000 votes to Mitt Romney LOL. But yes HRC is going to flip a state Obama wasn't able too last cycle, literally comical.

Clinton is not dependent on record turnout from African Americans to win North Carolina.