FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8

[IceSpear]

LOL, about as believable as the NC poll.

[IceSpear]

Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Both are outliers, but at least these cross tabs are some what believable.

Hillary winning 28% of Republicans is not believable. Literally no other poll shows anything even remotely similar to this.

[IceSpear]

Hillary winning 28% of Republicans is not believable. Literally no other poll shows anything even remotely similar to this.

Actually, they do-- NBC/Marist and Emerson both also show Clinton up among early voter by 15-18 points, and given Republican early voting numbers, that could only have happened with significant Republican crossover...

And do their early voting samples actually match the real life demographics?

[IceSpear]

538 just adjusted this to Clinton +6. They also give it relatively little weight.

How did this poll push Trump's odds UP from 30.3 to 30.5% in their Nowcast?  I don't believe this poll, but I also don't see how the data point actually *helps* Trump.

Because Nate Silver is a joke. Nothing will surprise me coming from the guy who thought Rhode Island was a swing state based off a junky Emerson poll.

[IceSpear]

Two things:
- This is partially pre-Comey. I'd like to see the swing between the two periods if they have it.
- Even pre-Comey, this would have looked like an outlier. Outliers aren't worthless, though - especially in a State with lots of polls, throw them in the average and you'll tend to get a more accurate result.

Well, your reaction to this outlier was certainly more sane and measured than your reaction to the other one, LOL.

[IceSpear]

Those... actually look reasonable

I'll film myself drinking from a toilet bowl if Hillary wins 20% of Republicans in FL. It's not gonna happen.