FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
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  FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
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Author Topic: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8  (Read 19126 times)
Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #125 on: November 01, 2016, 11:41:32 PM »

Two things:
- This is partially pre-Comey. I'd like to see the swing between the two periods if they have it.
- Even pre-Comey, this would have looked like an outlier. Outliers aren't worthless, though - especially in a State with lots of polls, throw them in the average and you'll tend to get a more accurate result.
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TC 25
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« Reply #126 on: November 01, 2016, 11:55:05 PM »

Go ahead and believe this poll at your own peril.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #127 on: November 01, 2016, 11:56:49 PM »

Two things:
- This is partially pre-Comey. I'd like to see the swing between the two periods if they have it.
- Even pre-Comey, this would have looked like an outlier. Outliers aren't worthless, though - especially in a State with lots of polls, throw them in the average and you'll tend to get a more accurate result.

Well, your reaction to this outlier was certainly more sane and measured than your reaction to the other one, LOL.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #128 on: November 02, 2016, 12:19:54 AM »

Two things:
- This is partially pre-Comey. I'd like to see the swing between the two periods if they have it.
- Even pre-Comey, this would have looked like an outlier. Outliers aren't worthless, though - especially in a State with lots of polls, throw them in the average and you'll tend to get a more accurate result.

Well, your reaction to this outlier was certainly more sane and measured than your reaction to the other one, LOL.

I tend to react calmly to good news and more anxiously to bad news. It's part of a "better safe than sorry" mentality.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #129 on: November 02, 2016, 12:58:42 AM »

They added the NC poll to RCP, but not this one. -eyeroll-
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Hammy
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« Reply #130 on: November 02, 2016, 01:18:07 AM »

They added the NC poll to RCP, but not this one. -eyeroll-

SurveyUSA is a better-known pollster so to me the move makes sense.
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JJC
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« Reply #131 on: November 02, 2016, 02:16:04 AM »

Two things:
- This is partially pre-Comey. I'd like to see the swing between the two periods if they have it.
- Even pre-Comey, this would have looked like an outlier. Outliers aren't worthless, though - especially in a State with lots of polls, throw them in the average and you'll tend to get a more accurate result.

Two things:
- It's a junk poll
- It's a junk poll
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #132 on: November 02, 2016, 04:00:59 AM »

Hmm, questionable to say the least.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #133 on: November 02, 2016, 04:19:59 AM »


I hate to be a realist 'concern troll', but a poll that shows a suspiciously good picture for Clinton is about as likely to be trash as one that shows a suspiciously good picture for Trump (as in SUSA's NC poll).

Although of course it's possible that, with her ground game, Clinton's suspiciously good polls may turn out to be more accurate than Trump's suspiciously good polls.
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Donnie
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« Reply #134 on: November 02, 2016, 04:40:17 AM »
« Edited: November 02, 2016, 04:58:24 AM by Donnie »

Clinton +8 in FL ? Rigging polls as last line of defence...this is pathetic.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #135 on: November 02, 2016, 04:57:32 AM »


I hate to be a realist 'concern troll', but a poll that shows a suspiciously good picture for Clinton is about as likely to be trash as one that shows a suspiciously good picture for Trump (as in SUSA's NC poll).

Although of course it's possible that, with her ground game, Clinton's suspiciously good polls may turn out to be more accurate than Trump's suspiciously good polls.

I tend to more or less trust SUSA because I'm familiar with their track record though.  What's W&M/TargetSmart's record look like?
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Kalimantan
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« Reply #136 on: November 02, 2016, 06:21:40 AM »

I must ask you, though, that R crossover #....there's just no way, is there? There aren't enough Latino Rs to make that a reality. FL educated white crossover just can't be that high, right?

The R crossover has been a defining feature of this election, though. Time after time we're hearing about R's who won't vote for Trump, because he's a sex pest / racist / unqualified / not a conservative / in bed with Russia  / whatever reason. The NeverTrump movement has been a thing, candidates for congress have been running away, parts of FoxNews have turned on him.

At some point this has to actually show up in the results, right? It can't just be minorities who are switching? Everyone right now on here is just assuming that R's are voting Trump, that early voting number showing strong R turnout has to be for Trump? Is this really all because of Comey?

28% is high, obviously. My theory, fwiw, is that some Independents who are basically solid Republican voters are self-identifying as registered Republicans so they can demonstrate that they are switching across the aisle to vote for Clinton this election.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #137 on: November 02, 2016, 06:23:12 AM »

Should it has (D) in the title, because it is a Democratic political data firm Smiley
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Lachi
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« Reply #138 on: November 02, 2016, 06:48:24 AM »

Should it has (D) in the title, because it is a Democratic political data firm Smiley
Source for the claim?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #139 on: November 02, 2016, 06:56:19 AM »

Should it has (D) in the title, because it is a Democratic political data firm Smiley
Source for the claim?

This isn't a controversial statement, they do consulting for Dems. It's googleable.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #140 on: November 02, 2016, 06:57:21 AM »

Should it has (D) in the title, because it is a Democratic political data firm Smiley
Source for the claim?
I thought, Dems here said it in poll-hype thread?

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/how-many-registered-voters-are-in-america-2016-229993
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http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-voting-irregularities-snap-story.html
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http://www.cbsnews.com/news/analysis-by-voter-group-finds-dead-people-likely-registered-in-indiana/
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http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37634526
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Lachi
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« Reply #141 on: November 02, 2016, 07:07:08 AM »


Well, I never saw it in the hype thread, but you only needed to show one source.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #142 on: November 02, 2016, 08:43:49 AM »

https://www.scribd.com/document/329698329/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Florida-Poll-of-Early-and-Likely-Voters

Crosstabs up.

Registered Republicans
Trump 74
Clinton 20

Registered Democrat
Trump 13
Clinton 84

Registered Unaffiliated
Trump 43
Clinton 44

White
Trump 54
Clinton 40

Hispanic
Trump 31
Clinton 62

Black
Trump 3
Clinton 96
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #143 on: November 02, 2016, 08:47:02 AM »

Well, I never saw it in the hype thread, but you only needed to show one source.

LBP is young, immature, and thinks he's clever. The quicker you learn to just siphon the occasional good out of his posts and just move on from him, the better for your health.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #144 on: November 02, 2016, 08:47:37 AM »

Those... actually look reasonable
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #145 on: November 02, 2016, 10:45:31 AM »


Yes!  Great news!  Longtime Cuban Pubbies are abandoning the Trumpster like a makeshift raft taking on water!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #146 on: November 03, 2016, 12:20:48 AM »


I'll film myself drinking from a toilet bowl if Hillary wins 20% of Republicans in FL. It's not gonna happen.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #147 on: November 03, 2016, 12:21:11 AM »


I'll film myself drinking from a toilet bowl if Hillary wins 20% of Republicans in FL. It's not gonna happen.

I'll hold you to this Tongue
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Kempros
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« Reply #148 on: November 03, 2016, 01:33:30 AM »

The RCP averages show a near 0 race in FL. If a poll showed T+8 here, there would be a freak show of comments about junk poll. Of course it shows C+8 and you see "omg, its happening".
-Logic
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #149 on: November 03, 2016, 01:34:14 AM »

The RCP averages show a near 0 race in FL. If a poll showed T+8 here, there would be a freak show of comments about junk poll. Of course it shows C+8 and you see "omg, its happening".
-Logic

RCP also didn't include this poll in their average, but did include the ones that had Trump ahead.
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