VA/ME/IL-Emerson: Clinton +4 in VA and ME, +12 in IL

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Coming from Emerson, these numbers look right. If VA isn't shaking even with landline only, it isn't shaking at all. How on earth did these dummies not think to break ME down into CDs?

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This would, likely, have Trump gaining a vote in ME.

This is getting to be very bad.

Emerson is landline only and they didn't poll CDs.

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According to 538, this poll does have Clinton +1 in ME-02, but just +6 in ME-01.

Thanks. I'm not sure where those numbers come from, I can't find them in the presser. But yeah, with the current early voting numbers out of ME-02, tilt-D is more the story than tilt-R, but it should be tightish.

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According to 538, this poll does have Clinton +1 in ME-02, but just +6 in ME-01.

Correct. Here is the detail :

ME-01
-Clinton  49
-trump  43
-Johnson  4

ME-02 (Rounding makes it actually Clinton +1)
-Clinton  44
-trump  42
-Johnson  6

Undecided/refused in ME-02 are shy Trump.

Undecided/refused in ME-02 are shy Clinton.


Hooray! We broke even and learned nothing.