PA - F&M College: Clinton +11 (4-way)

[psychprofessor]

PA should be an easy state to call for Clinton at closing on election night.

[psychprofessor]

College educated white crosstab is insane: 66-24 Clinton

One caveat: About 3/4 of the interviews were done before Comeygate. However, I don't think Comey really helped Trump in this sample because Clinton would have to be up like 20 points on the pre-Comey days and that would be tough to pull off, even in PA

Another caveat: Party ID is 53-39 D, when actual party ID in the state is about D+9, so adjust it to Clinton +6 or +7 (still a solid lead) and that makes the poll look right

I'm seeing the partisan breakdown as D +8.

[psychprofessor]

Michigan significantly to the right of Pennsylvania? I don't buy it.

Well yeah, this poll is an obvious outlier. Average it and the pro-GOP outlier Remington and you likely have the true margin.

Agreed... it is a Uni Poll, and likely based off the backs of working college students, in order to add street cred to the Professor, with typical shoddy methodology.

Still, no reason not to through it into the hopper and average mix, and it seems to indicate the Clinton has a relatively decent lead in PA.

Clinton's led this whole cycle, except for one Q poll months ago. I'm not counting R or D partisan polls...just reputable, live callers - only one Q poll showed Trump ahead. I think it is safe to say Trump isn't winning PA. He is not going to be able to off-set his abysmal showing in Philly and the surrounding counties.