PA - F&M College: Clinton +11 (4-way)

[IceSpear]

McGinty up 12 in this, trends have been good for her. Just need Hassan to pull out in NH and get lucky with Kander/Bayh and we don't have to worry about Kaine's seat.

No comment on the presidential portion? lol. I think that's a bit more relevant than Kander and Bayh...

[IceSpear]

College educated white crosstab is insane: 66-24 Clinton

One caveat: About 3/4 of the interviews were done before Comeygate. However, I don't think Comey really helped Trump in this sample because Clinton would have to be up like 20 points on the pre-Comey days and that would be tough to pull off, even in PA

Another caveat: Party ID is 53-39 D, when actual party ID in the state is about D+9, so adjust it to Clinton +6 or +7 (still a solid lead) and that makes the poll look right

No, the party ID is 50-42 D.

[IceSpear]

College educated white crosstab is insane: 66-24 Clinton

One caveat: About 3/4 of the interviews were done before Comeygate. However, I don't think Comey really helped Trump in this sample because Clinton would have to be up like 20 points on the pre-Comey days and that would be tough to pull off, even in PA

Another caveat: Party ID is 53-39 D, when actual party ID in the state is about D+9, so adjust it to Clinton +6 or +7 (still a solid lead) and that makes the poll look right

No, the party ID is 50-42 D.

You are talking about Self-Identification while he is about Registration.

Dems = 418/863 =48%
Reps  =  327/853 =38%

Ok. IDK, what you are talkin about

Page 12 of the PDF.

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[IceSpear]

Michigan significantly to the right of Pennsylvania? I don't buy it.

Well yeah, this poll is an obvious outlier. Average it and the pro-GOP outlier Remington and you likely have the true margin.