PA - F&M College: Clinton +11 (4-way)
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  PA - F&M College: Clinton +11 (4-way)
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Author Topic: PA - F&M College: Clinton +11 (4-way)  (Read 6109 times)
Speed of Sound
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« on: October 31, 2016, 10:40:03 PM »
« edited: October 31, 2016, 10:44:10 PM by Speed of Sound »

Among 652 LVs, Oct 26-30 (3/4ths before Comey):

Clinton 49 (+2 from late Sept)
Trump 38 (nc)
Johnson 4 (-1)
Stein 2 (+2 lol)

http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/913809798323927231-f-m-poll-release-october-2016.pdf
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Ronnie
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2016, 10:40:32 PM »

DOMINATING!
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2016, 10:40:50 PM »

PA should be an easy state to call for Clinton at closing on election night.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2016, 10:40:58 PM »

Great honer!
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Ljube
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2016, 10:41:48 PM »

They are polling in a parallel universe.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2016, 10:41:52 PM »

WOW!!!!

Tremendous numbers! McGinty up by double digits!
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henster
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2016, 10:42:56 PM »

McGinty up 12 in this, trends have been good for her. Just need Hassan to pull out in NH and get lucky with Kander/Bayh and we don't have to worry about Kaine's seat.
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dspNY
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2016, 10:43:39 PM »

College educated white crosstab is insane: 66-24 Clinton

One caveat: About 3/4 of the interviews were done before Comeygate. However, I don't think Comey really helped Trump in this sample because Clinton would have to be up like 20 points on the pre-Comey days and that would be tough to pull off, even in PA

Another caveat: Party ID is 53-39 D, when actual party ID in the state is about D+9, so adjust it to Clinton +6 or +7 (still a solid lead) and that makes the poll look right
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2016, 10:44:07 PM »

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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2016, 10:44:14 PM »

Wow. Now we are talking. This one is first really bad news for Trump... Hope that new polls from NC would look much better.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2016, 10:44:24 PM »

Electric
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2016, 10:45:29 PM »

McGinty up 12 in this, trends have been good for her. Just need Hassan to pull out in NH and get lucky with Kander/Bayh and we don't have to worry about Kaine's seat.

No comment on the presidential portion? lol. I think that's a bit more relevant than Kander and Bayh...
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dspNY
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2016, 10:45:35 PM »

They are polling in a parallel universe.


Even if you move the party ID to D+9 (where it is right now) it is still a likely Dem state (Clinton +6 or +7)
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IceSpear
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2016, 10:46:26 PM »

College educated white crosstab is insane: 66-24 Clinton

One caveat: About 3/4 of the interviews were done before Comeygate. However, I don't think Comey really helped Trump in this sample because Clinton would have to be up like 20 points on the pre-Comey days and that would be tough to pull off, even in PA

Another caveat: Party ID is 53-39 D, when actual party ID in the state is about D+9, so adjust it to Clinton +6 or +7 (still a solid lead) and that makes the poll look right

No, the party ID is 50-42 D.
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Xing
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« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2016, 10:46:58 PM »

F&M has been very friendly to Hillary this cycle, but even given that, WOW!
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2016, 10:47:37 PM »

Safe D at this point.
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TC 25
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« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2016, 10:49:29 PM »

Garbage
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2016, 10:51:22 PM »

College educated white crosstab is insane: 66-24 Clinton

One caveat: About 3/4 of the interviews were done before Comeygate. However, I don't think Comey really helped Trump in this sample because Clinton would have to be up like 20 points on the pre-Comey days and that would be tough to pull off, even in PA

Another caveat: Party ID is 53-39 D, when actual party ID in the state is about D+9, so adjust it to Clinton +6 or +7 (still a solid lead) and that makes the poll look right


I'm seeing the partisan breakdown as D +8.
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Horus
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« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2016, 10:52:31 PM »

75% pre-Comey? Throw it out, it means nothing.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #19 on: October 31, 2016, 10:52:57 PM »
« Edited: October 31, 2016, 10:55:00 PM by Happy Sad Trumpista »

College educated white crosstab is insane: 66-24 Clinton

One caveat: About 3/4 of the interviews were done before Comeygate. However, I don't think Comey really helped Trump in this sample because Clinton would have to be up like 20 points on the pre-Comey days and that would be tough to pull off, even in PA

Another caveat: Party ID is 53-39 D, when actual party ID in the state is about D+9, so adjust it to Clinton +6 or +7 (still a solid lead) and that makes the poll look right

No, the party ID is 50-42 D.
You are talking about Self-Identification while he is about Registration.

Dems = 418/863 =48%
Reps  =  327/853 =38%

Ok. IDK, what you are talkin about
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #20 on: October 31, 2016, 10:56:24 PM »
« Edited: October 31, 2016, 11:01:12 PM by matthew27 »

Great news! And people are sick of those freaking emails. So I doubt the comey crap is going to hurt her.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #21 on: October 31, 2016, 10:57:49 PM »

Very, very nice !
8-)
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: October 31, 2016, 10:57:55 PM »

College educated white crosstab is insane: 66-24 Clinton

One caveat: About 3/4 of the interviews were done before Comeygate. However, I don't think Comey really helped Trump in this sample because Clinton would have to be up like 20 points on the pre-Comey days and that would be tough to pull off, even in PA

Another caveat: Party ID is 53-39 D, when actual party ID in the state is about D+9, so adjust it to Clinton +6 or +7 (still a solid lead) and that makes the poll look right

No, the party ID is 50-42 D.
You are talking about Self-Identification while he is about Registration.

Dems = 418/863 =48%
Reps  =  327/853 =38%

Ok. IDK, what you are talkin about

Page 12 of the PDF.

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2016, 11:16:21 PM »

Probably too good to be true, but nice to see we're still getting these kinds of polls.
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Absolution9
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« Reply #24 on: October 31, 2016, 11:23:40 PM »
« Edited: October 31, 2016, 11:29:04 PM by Absolution9 »

Not that it matters much but this poll has some strange regional results.  

1. It says Clinton wins Allegheny county by 40 points.  I grew up in the Pittsburgh area and I would bet everything I own that she wins it by 20 points or less.

2.  It says Trump is only up 15 points in central PA, Romney won this area by over 30 points and I cant see Trump doing worse.

Aside from that it looks remotely plausible although I don't really trust the 64-28 figure for SE PA either.  Romney lost what I consider SE PA outside of Philly by about 12-15 points, is Trump really going to loose it by 36 points?

It carries over to Toomey as well, he is doing almost as poorly in all of these places which makes no sense.
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