NBC/Survey Monkey: Clinton +6/+7

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Not consistent with A+/A- polls

the numbers not...the trendline (rock solid since last week) seems to be.

Ehm, no. 538 is sensitive to trendslines btw

Not consistent with A+/A- polls

You were confident enough in it to predict C+2 an hour ago.

(this is trumpbuddy's code word for trackers, btw)

Tracker is a regular polls that's updated daily. The same methodology. Just so you know.

Yeah, I was wrong. Do you really believe that Clinton went up during last week?

[bilaps]

Not consistent with A+/A- polls

Is the troll not happy?

you can't be an idiot calling everyone troll who disagrees with you. it's being idiotic. there are like 20 hilary supporters already posting here and you call us trolls.

how stupid are you really?

hide trump train coming!

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/poll-clinton-maintains-national-lead-over-trump-despite-fbi-letter-n675771

https://www.scribd.com/document/329549003/NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Toplines-and-Methodology-1024-1030?secret_password=LnCL1BQpi23OCLNwYALQ

Breakdown

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

This poll has consistently shown the same numbers, even during September. Don't trust it one bit.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Wow, this is awesome news. People are sick of the goddamn emails and only people leaning Republican anyway are going to be moved by them.

[Yank2133]

This poll has consistently shown the same numbers, even during September. Don't trust it one bit.

That is actually a good thing.......

[Cashew]

Teflon Clinton!

[Wiz in Wis]

Highest Clinton has been in 4-way, lowest for Gary Johnson.

[Ronnie]

This poll has consistently shown the same numbers, even during September. Don't trust it one bit.

So, you immediately accept everything that validates your unwarranted panicking, and disregard everything that does not?  Isn't that a bit...insane?

[mark_twain]

Excellent!

[Dr. Arch]

Thank goodness.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Clinton +7

Lol well I'll be damned.

Yeah. An unexpected winner, I have to say.

How is that result unexpected?  NBC/SurveyMonkey have had much more favorable Clinton results than most for the entire election season.  Now, they may turn out to be correct while others are wrong, but I don't see how this result is anything but expected.

It just showed literally the average in Pollster's model and 1 point over average in 538's.

It showed trend that is backed up by just one poll. One from Rasmussen. According to 538 Clinton lost ~2% points during last week.

[Podgy the Bear]

Thank goodness.

The world is saved!!  LOL

[IceSpear]

Good news, but the consensus still suggests tightening.

[DrScholl]

Not consistent with A+/A- polls

BUT, HILLARY IS FINISHED! THE FBI!

[Eraserhead]

Good news, but the consensus still suggests tightening.

Yep.

[JerryArkansas]

Not consistent with A+/A- polls

Is the troll not happy?

you can't be an idiot calling everyone troll who disagrees with you. it's being idiotic. there are like 20 hilary supporters already posting here and you call us trolls.

how stupid are you really?

hide trump train coming!

A man who says trump train coming is either a troll or a sad person.  I would rather be called a troll if I was you.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Good news, but the consensus still suggests tightening.

The consensus suggested tightening before this story and you all called us idiots for pointing it out.

[IceSpear]

Good news, but the consensus still suggests tightening.

The consensus suggested tightening before this story and you all called us idiots for pointing it out.

Not really? A week or so ago there was tons of conflicting evidence on that matter, pretty much for every poll that showed tightening there was another that showed her up double digits. When you made your proclamation of the tightening based off Remington (R) polls, there was no consensus among the major election forecasters, as I pointed out to you at the time, but apparently Atlas ate my post and I don't see it in the thread anymore:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=249602.0

Compare to now, where there's Dem celebration about Hillary being up 6-7, with Monmouth/Morning Consult/SUSA showing a 2012-esque race, and you can see the picture has clearly changed.

Btw, I never called you or anyone else an idiot, just a chicken little. And don't even try to deny that. You literally called the election for Bernie Sanders based off a Nevada exit poll. lol

[Xing]

Did anyone really think that the Comey thing would change the race? The only people who still care about Hillary's emails are 110% behind Trump.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Last results were

Clinton 50, Trump 44
Clinton 46, Trump 41, Johnson 7, Stein 3

So Clinton +1 on both.

#TrumpCollapse #Clintonmentum

[Crumpets]

I tend to agree with the line of reasoning that once the candidates are known it takes something of truly epic proportions to change their votes in November. As much as the polls go up and down, they do so within fairly narrow bands of a few points either way. Just as Romney regained the voters he lost in the 47% comments with his strong performance in the 1st debate, Trump has regained his voters from before gropegate and the first debate. The only thing it really changes is when people decide to vote for their eventual candidate, rather than whom they actually vote for.

[PollsDontLie]

Good news, but the consensus still suggests tightening.

The consensus suggested tightening before this story and you all called us idiots for pointing it out.

Not really? A week or so ago there was tons of conflicting evidence on that matter, pretty much for every poll that showed tightening there was another that showed her up double digits. When you made your proclamation of the tightening based off Remington (R) polls, there was no consensus among the major election forecasters, as I pointed out to you at the time, but apparently Atlas ate my post and I don't see it in the thread anymore:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=249602.0

Compare to now, where there's Dem celebration about Hillary being up 6-7, with Monmouth/Morning Consult/SUSA showing a 2012-esque race, and you can see the picture has clearly changed.

Btw, I never called you or anyone else an idiot, just a chicken little. And don't even try to deny that. You literally called the election for Bernie Sanders based off a Nevada exit poll. lol

Thank you for being a voice of reason.  NBC/SurveyMonkey might well be correct about the election, but they've been consistently 4-5ish points friendlier to Hillary than most polls.  This result lines up with a Clinton +2-3 point election in other polls, which is exactly what we're probably looking at.

[Illiniwek]

The Survey Monkey is #WithHer

[mark_twain]

Did anyone really think that the Comey thing would change the race? The only people who still care about Hillary's emails are 110% behind Trump.

I believe there was, and still is, an anti-Clinton effect from the story, but also an equally strong pro-Clinton effect resulting from the shift of the story towards Comey himself.

We can credit the pro-Clinton effect to the quick and wise maneuvering by the Clinton campaign, including Clinton herself.

For this reason, I think there is no need to worry about the story dragging on, as the effect of the story basically cancels itself out.