the next population chart

[MaC]

anyone know, based on trends what an electoral vote map (with population) would look like for 2012-2020?  (Based off of current projections of course)

[KillerPollo]

anyone know, based on trends what an electoral vote map (with population) would look like for 2012-2020?  (Based off of current projections of course)

382,940,374 seem good to you?

[MaC]

I meant how many electoral votes all the states will have in the next decade (2012,2016, and 2020 elections)

[MaC]

I meant how many electoral votes all the states will have in the next decade (2012,2016, and 2020 elections)

anyone? anyone? Bueller? anyone?

[Defarge]

I couldn't find a chart or a convenient image but i did find this interesting article on general trends within the electoral college
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-outlook16may16,1,7930065.column

[muon2]

The US Census Bureau released (link) its estimates for the populations of the states for July 1, 2004. This data can be used to project the apportionment for 2010.

For each state I have calculated an annual rate of growth based on the 4 1/4 years between the decennial cencus on April 1, 2000 and this new estimate. I assume growth rates based on an annual percentage increase which is uniform over the period. This is the same as a financial institution would use to calculate the growth rate of an investment.

The annual growth rate is then applied for 10 years with annual compounding to the decennial census counts. This results in a projected population for each state on April 1, 2010. With this projection, the average CD would have 712.6 K people.

The apportionment of representatives is calculated in the correct manner. Each state starts with 1 seat. The priority vaule used to assign each subsequent seat is taken as geometric mean of the average population per seat and the average population per seat if an additional seat were assigned. Seats are assigned until 435 seats are apportioned.

The last few seats assigned (and next few not assigned) are:

#431 TX 35
#432 PA 18
#433 MN 8
#434 AL 7
#435 MI 15

#436 CA 55
#437 NY 28
#438 IL 19
#439 FL 28
#440 LA 7

The result of this apportionment would be the following changes:

AZ +1
CA +1
FL +2
GA +1
IL -1
IA -1
LA -1
MA -1
MO -1
NV +1
NY -2
OH -2
PA -1
TX +3
UT +1

[MaC]

thanks muon2, I'll use this information.  Watchout of a future what-if.

[Alcon]

muon2, county projections beyond 2003 wouldn't happen to be out, would they?  I doubt they even bother, but that would be very cool information.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

muon2, county projections beyond 2003 wouldn't happen to be out, would they?  I doubt they even bother, but that would be very cool information.

July 1, 2004 estimates have been out a while.

[Alcon]

muon2, county projections beyond 2003 wouldn't happen to be out, would they?  I doubt they even bother, but that would be very cool information.

July 1, 2004 estimates have been out a while.

Oh, really?  Where can I find them?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

muon2, county projections beyond 2003 wouldn't happen to be out, would they?  I doubt they even bother, but that would be very cool information.

July 1, 2004 estimates have been out a while.

Oh, really?  Where can I find them?

They have little bits around, not sure if they organized it well yet. The normal place to check has only 2003.

[Alcon]

muon2, county projections beyond 2003 wouldn't happen to be out, would they?  I doubt they even bother, but that would be very cool information.

July 1, 2004 estimates have been out a while.

Oh, really?  Where can I find them?

They have little bits around, not sure if they organized it well yet. The normal place to check has only 2003.

Oh, well.  Thanks, in any case.  I'll keep an eye out for it - if you see it, I'd love to have a link if you get a chance.  Thanks again.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Found it. It's popular tables here.

http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Largest cities (by city limits) news. San Jose has knocked Detroit out of the top 10. Sometimes some governmental agencies get screwed up by the bay area, and call it the San Jose metropolitan area, because San Jose has more people than San Francisco (by city limits).

[Alcon]

Hmm...interesting.  Spokane is now the second most populated city in Washington again.  We actually lost people this time around.

Do you have this same information by counties?  All I see here is incorporated areas.

Thanks again for the link.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Everything is here.

http://www.census.gov/popest/datasets.html

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Maps:

http://www.census.gov/popest/gallery/maps/

[skybridge]

The US Census Bureau released (link) its estimates for the populations of the states for July 1, 2004. This data can be used to project the apportionment for 2010.

For each state I have calculated an annual rate of growth based on the 4 1/4 years between the decennial cencus on April 1, 2000 and this new estimate. I assume growth rates based on an annual percentage increase which is uniform over the period. This is the same as a financial institution would use to calculate the growth rate of an investment.

The annual growth rate is then applied for 10 years with annual compounding to the decennial census counts. This results in a projected population for each state on April 1, 2010. With this projection, the average CD would have 712.6 K people.

The apportionment of representatives is calculated in the correct manner. Each state starts with 1 seat. The priority vaule used to assign each subsequent seat is taken as geometric mean of the average population per seat and the average population per seat if an additional seat were assigned. Seats are assigned until 435 seats are apportioned.

The last few seats assigned (and next few not assigned) are:

#431 TX 35
#432 PA 18
#433 MN 8
#434 AL 7
#435 MI 15

#436 CA 55
#437 NY 28
#438 IL 19
#439 FL 28
#440 LA 7

The result of this apportionment would be the following changes:

AZ +1
CA +1
FL +2
GA +1
IL -1
IA -1
LA -1
MA -1
MO -1
NV +1
NY -2
OH -2
PA -1
TX +3
UT +1

Looks like most people will be moving out west.

[jimrtex]

Do you have this same information by counties?  All I see here is incorporated areas.

On the Census Bureau web site, select American FactFinder on the left, then select Data Sets.  One of the data sets is the 2003 and 2004 estimates for counties and cities.  You can get data in spreadsheet (.xls) format or have it create maps directly.

[zorkpolitics]

The US Census Bureau released (link) its estimates for the populations of the states for July 1, 2004. This data can be used to project the apportionment for 2010.

For each state I have calculated an annual rate of growth based on the 4 1/4 years between the decennial cencus on April 1, 2000 and this new estimate. I assume growth rates based on an annual percentage increase which is uniform over the period. This is the same as a financial institution would use to calculate the growth rate of an investment.

The annual growth rate is then applied for 10 years with annual compounding to the decennial census counts. This results in a projected population for each state on April 1, 2010. With this projection, the average CD would have 712.6 K people.

The apportionment of representatives is calculated in the correct manner. Each state starts with 1 seat. The priority vaule used to assign each subsequent seat is taken as geometric mean of the average population per seat and the average population per seat if an additional seat were assigned. Seats are assigned until 435 seats are apportioned.

The last few seats assigned (and next few not assigned) are:

#431 TX 35
#432 PA 18
#433 MN 8
#434 AL 7
#435 MI 15

#436 CA 55
#437 NY 28
#438 IL 19
#439 FL 28
#440 LA 7

The result of this apportionment would be the following changes:

AZ +1
CA +1
FL +2
GA +1
IL -1
IA -1
LA -1
MA -1
MO -1
NV +1
NY -2
OH -2
PA -1
TX +3
UT +1

Interestingly, looking at the closest states Bush won, a Republican in 2012 could win even if he lost OH, as long as he also won at least 2 of the closest small states of IA, NV, and NM.
If he won OH, a Republican could lose IA, NV, and NM and still win.

[muon2]

The US Census Bureau released (link) its estimates for the populations of the states for July 1, 2004. This data can be used to project the apportionment for 2010.

For each state I have calculated an annual rate of growth based on the 4 1/4 years between the decennial cencus on April 1, 2000 and this new estimate. I assume growth rates based on an annual percentage increase which is uniform over the period. This is the same as a financial institution would use to calculate the growth rate of an investment.

The annual growth rate is then applied for 10 years with annual compounding to the decennial census counts. This results in a projected population for each state on April 1, 2010. With this projection, the average CD would have 712.6 K people.

The apportionment of representatives is calculated in the correct manner. Each state starts with 1 seat. The priority vaule used to assign each subsequent seat is taken as geometric mean of the average population per seat and the average population per seat if an additional seat were assigned. Seats are assigned until 435 seats are apportioned.

The last few seats assigned (and next few not assigned) are:

#431 TX 35
#432 PA 18
#433 MN 8
#434 AL 7
#435 MI 15

#436 CA 55
#437 NY 28
#438 IL 19
#439 FL 28
#440 LA 7

The result of this apportionment would be the following changes:

AZ +1
CA +1
FL +2
GA +1
IL -1
IA -1
LA -1
MA -1
MO -1
NV +1
NY -2
OH -2
PA -1
TX +3
UT +1

Interestingly, looking at the closest states Bush won, a Republican in 2012 could win even if he lost OH, as long as he also won at least 2 of the closest small states of IA, NV, and NM.
If he won OH, a Republican could lose IA, NV, and NM and still win.

It's the fundamental trend over the last few decades. As the GOP became the dominant part of the Sunbelt, it also became the party of increasing electoral strength. Clinton was able to break into that base and won two elections. Unless future Dem candidates have a message that appeals to the GOP-leaning states, their electoral strength will continue to diminish with each passing decade.

[tarheel-leftist85]

Interestingly, looking at the closest states Bush won, a Republican in 2012 could win even if he lost OH, as long as he also won at least 2 of the closest small states of IA, NV, and NM.
If he won OH, a Republican could lose IA, NV, and NM and still win.

EXACTLY.  Democrats:  This is why it more than just about OH.  Florida will be bigger than NY in just five or six years.  The Western states are growing fast (except for CA, where the growth is mostly illeagals), but b/c they're so small, it takes them time to amass the EVs we need to counter the massive losses we will sustain in NY, OH, PA, MA, CT, RI, NJ, IL, MI, and WI.  We'd also be doing this country a disservice if we merely eek by with 270 EVs.  I'm sorry, but it's the truth and I'm glad a Republican could point this out.

[Ronald Reagan]

2030 (pop. in order; my prediction, if growth continues the way it has from 1990 to 2000):
1. California
2. Texas
3. Florida
4. New York
5. Georgia
6. Illlinois
7. North Carolina
8. Arizona
9. Pennsylvania
10. Ohio
11. Michigan
12. New Jersey
13. Virginia
14. Washington
15. Colorado
16. Nevada
17. Tennessee
18. Indiana
19. Massachusetts
20. Missouri
21. Maryland
22. Wisconsin
23. Minnesota
24. South Carolina
25. Oregon
26. Alabama
27. Kentucky
28. Louisiana
29. Utah
30. Oklahoma
31. Arkansas
32. Mississippi
33. Connecticut
34. Kansas
35. Iowa
36. New Mexico
37. Idaho
38. Nebraska
39. West Virginia
40. New Hampshire
41. Hawaii
42. Maine
43. Montana
44. Delaware
45. Rhode Island
46. South Dakota
47. Alaska
48. Vermont
49. North Dakota
50. Wyoming
51. Washington, D.C.

Just a little glimsp into the future, maybe.  I may have more later.

[Alcon]

What EV distribution is that, TS?

[tarheel-leftist85]

I have slightly different 2030 state rankings.  Did you get these statistics from the recently published projections (I think sometime in April)?  My top ten and their respective EVs are as follows (I have the article from USA Today but I can't find it right now):
1.  California--58EV
2.  Texas--42EV
3.  Florida--36EV
4.  New York--25EV
5.  Illinois--18EV
6.  North Carolina--17EV
7.  Pennsylvania--17EV
8.  Georgia--16EV
9.  Ohio--16EV
10.  Arizona--15EV
When I find the article, I'll post a map for those who like maps!