Politico/Morning Consult National Poll: Clinton +3 (Post-Comey)

[The Other Castro]

Clinton - 42%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 7%
Stein - 5%

Clinton - 46%
Trump - 43%

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So, zero change in the 4-way and MOE movement in the 2-way, all in the immediate aftermath which is usually the most volatile period of a "scandal".

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-emails-comey-poll-politico-morning-consult-230519

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Stein and Johnson numbers are a little high

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

People have been hearing about these freaking emails for 2 years! Most understand that there's nothing there and are sick of it.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Interesting graphic.

[The Other Castro]

Stein and Johnson numbers are a little high

Agreed.

[Rand]

#backfire

Reading the Blue Avatar posts in the FBI thread puts a smile on my face.

[Eraserhead]

Stein at 5%, wow.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Interesting graphic.

Then again they didn't show much of a shift after the tapes dropped either...

[Eraserhead]

#backfire

Reading the Blue Avatar posts in the FBI thread puts a smile on my face.

What's with the "backfire" thing? It's not like she's doing better because of this.

[mark_twain]

Good defensive stand for Clinton.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

So, zero change in the 4-way and MOE movement in the 2-way, all in the immediate aftermath which is usually the most volatile period of a "scandal".

Did you really expect movement > MOE? The summer FBI scandal changed polls by 2%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Stein at 5%, wow.

True, trash. Only teasing

Interesting graphic.

Then again they didn't show much of a shift after the tapes dropped either...

To be fair, this poll is renowned for it's very conservative response to things, so we'll see. But the 'meh' response to the emails are kind of reflected in the anecdotal info we've heard so far.

[Gass3268]

Interesting graphic.

Then again they didn't show much of a shift after the tapes dropped either...

This poll seems to have an equilibrium of a 3-4 point Clinton lead. Also it's looking like in general, that Trump is regaining support amoung Republicans, even before the tape, while Hillary stays about the same.

[The Other Castro]

So, zero change in the 4-way and MOE movement in the 2-way, all in the immediate aftermath which is usually the most volatile period of a "scandal".

Did you really expect movement > MOE? The summer FBI scandal changed polls by 2%

Just mentioning it could be unrelated movement given a lack of change in the 4-way.

[Gustaf]

Yeah this poll seems to never move regardless of what happens.

[Eraserhead]

Yeah this poll seems to never move regardless of what happens.

Yes, pretty stable it seems.

[Gass3268]

Yeah this poll seems to never move regardless of what happens.

Yes, pretty stable it seems.

Especially Hillary

[Mr. Morden]

Dems
Clinton 81%
Stein 5%
Trump 5%
Johnson 4%

GOP
Trump 82%
Clinton 6%
Johnson 5%
Stein 3%

Indies
Clinton 33%
Trump 32%
Johnson 15%
Stein 8%

Trump’s in 4th place with blacks:
Clinton 82%
Johnson 6%
Stein 5%
Trump 4%

Once again, Johnson draws more from Trump while Stein draws more from Clinton…

People who support Clinton in the 2-way matchup:
Clinton 89%
Johnson 5%
Stein 5%
Trump 1%

People who support Trump in the 2-way matchup:
Trump 89%
Johnson 7%
Stein 2%
Clinton 1%

men: Clinton/Trump tie
women: Clinton +5
income under $50k: Clinton +4
income $50-100k: Clinton +1
income over $100k: Clinton +4
whites: Trump +9
blacks: Clinton +76 (over Johnson)
Hispanics: Clinton +22
urban: Clinton +27
suburban: Clinton +1
rural: Trump +15
Midwest: Trump +3
Northeast: Clinton +11
South: Trump +4
West: Clinton +14

Yet another poll in which Clinton does even better in the West than the Northeast.

[SunSt0rm]

Interesting graphic.

Looks pretty accurate tbh, I remember Obama internal polls or model didnt show much movement through the whole campaign either

[EpicHistory]

It's only been two days (And a weekend no less!), so this has not had time to percolate in an average week's news coverage and she has already dropped two points. Given an average week of news coverage, Clinton is going to drop like a rock. I'm calling it now, tied by the end of this week or mid next week.

[Eraserhead]

I love how 1% switch between Clinton and Trump based on whether it's a two-way or a four-way match.

[Moderate Pennsylvanian]

men: Clinton/Trump tie
women: Clinton +5
income under $50k: Clinton +4
income $50-100k: Clinton +1
income over $100k: Clinton +4
whites: Trump +9
blacks: Clinton +76 (over Johnson)
Hispanics: Clinton +22
urban: Clinton +27
suburban: Clinton +1
rural: Trump +15
Midwest: Trump +3
Northeast: Clinton +11
South: Trump +4
West: Clinton +14

Hispanics +22 for Clinton definitely seems low.

[Mr. Morden]

men: Clinton/Trump tie
women: Clinton +5
income under $50k: Clinton +4
income $50-100k: Clinton +1
income over $100k: Clinton +4
whites: Trump +9
blacks: Clinton +76 (over Johnson)
Hispanics: Clinton +22
urban: Clinton +27
suburban: Clinton +1
rural: Trump +15
Midwest: Trump +3
Northeast: Clinton +11
South: Trump +4
West: Clinton +14

Hispanics +22 for Clinton definitely seems low.

Yeah, they only have Clinton getting 50% of Hispanics, compared to 28% for Trump.  The rest is taken up by Johnson/Stein/undecided.

[Phony Moderate]

men: Clinton/Trump tie
women: Clinton +5
income under $50k: Clinton +4
income $50-100k: Clinton +1
income over $100k: Clinton +4
whites: Trump +9
blacks: Clinton +76 (over Johnson)
Hispanics: Clinton +22
urban: Clinton +27
suburban: Clinton +1
rural: Trump +15
Midwest: Trump +3
Northeast: Clinton +11
South: Trump +4
West: Clinton +14

Hispanics +22 for Clinton definitely seems low.

Indeed but many of those numbers have it narrower than we're used to - men, women, whites etc.

[Mr. Morden]

Johnson+Stein combined %age of the vote by region:
Midwest: 14%
Northeast: 9%
South: 10%
West: 18%

Without the 3rd party vote included, the regional differences become bigger.  E.g., in the South Trump leads by 4 in the 4-way and by 6 in the 2-way.  In the West, Clinton leads by 14 in the 4-way and 19 in the 2-way.