CBS/YouGov: Clinton leads in CO, PA, NC; Trump leads in AZ
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  CBS/YouGov: Clinton leads in CO, PA, NC; Trump leads in AZ
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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov: Clinton leads in CO, PA, NC; Trump leads in AZ  (Read 5538 times)
dspNY
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« Reply #25 on: October 30, 2016, 09:13:35 AM »

Those are some really bad numbers in PA for Clinton. Looks like the email story is having a huge impact if that race is within single digits.

Obama won PA by 5-6 points in 2012, so YouGov is saying that Clinton is outperforming Obama there
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #26 on: October 30, 2016, 09:14:08 AM »

Those are some really bad numbers in PA for Clinton. Looks like the email story is having a huge impact if that race is within single digits.

+8 is a bad number? O_o

I'm guessing that's sarcasm.
It's SWE, it's sarcasm.
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dspNY
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« Reply #27 on: October 30, 2016, 09:20:36 AM »

The electorate is virtually locked in

95% of Pennsylvania voters said they aren't changing their mind or probably won't change
94% of North Carolina voters said they aren't changing their mind or probably won't change
91% of Colorado voters said they aren't changing their mind or probably won't change
90% of Arizona voters said they aren't changing their mind or probably won't change
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Person Man
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« Reply #28 on: October 30, 2016, 09:25:40 AM »

The electorate is virtually locked in

95% of Pennsylvania voters said they aren't changing their mind or probably won't change
94% of North Carolina voters said they aren't changing their mind or probably won't change
91% of Colorado voters said they aren't changing their mind or probably won't change
90% of Arizona voters said they aren't changing their mind or probably won't change
So PA is safe, and CO and NC need for the Trumpster Fire to win undecideds by YUGE margins. Hillary still needs a big margins in Arizona, just not as big.
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dspNY
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« Reply #29 on: October 30, 2016, 09:30:04 AM »

Senate polls:

PA: McGinty 44, Toomey 41
NC: Ross 44, Burr 44
CO: Bennet 46, Glenn 41 (LOL)
AZ: McCain 43, Kirkpatrick 38 (LOL)
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Badger
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« Reply #30 on: October 30, 2016, 09:44:24 AM »

PA will likely be narrower in the end.

CO is too low for Clinton (probably up 5-6).

AZ looks about right (Hillary won't win there, it's a dream).

NC should be quite close in the end, like I said in another thread.

And are you basing that off of anything besides your gut? You can't just say something will be close by pointing to another post saying that your gut says so as evidence.

Don't wrestle with a pig on this one.

Yeah. Tender is the biggest fail poster of this cycle.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #31 on: October 30, 2016, 10:33:25 AM »

The way Colorado is going in the early vote the Colorado number looks like a joke, also lol @ North Carolina being among the most secure Dem leads out there, and Pennsylvania is Likely/Safe D at this point, thanks to beautiful wonderful suburbanites!

also ugh Arizona is so damn close.
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Person Man
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« Reply #32 on: October 30, 2016, 11:00:04 AM »

The way Colorado is going in the early vote the Colorado number looks like a joke, also lol @ North Carolina being among the most secure Dem leads out there, and Pennsylvania is Likely/Safe D at this point, thanks to beautiful wonderful suburbanites!

also ugh Arizona is so damn close.
Obama outpeformed YouGuv in Colorado by 4 and a half points.
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Xing
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« Reply #33 on: October 30, 2016, 11:27:35 AM »

CO definitely seems off. Good to see that AZ is at least very close, which means turnout could still tip it to Hillary.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #34 on: October 30, 2016, 03:33:17 PM »


These types of questions, particularly to GOPhers/Non-aligned are kind of pointless because there's no question as to whether you intended to vote for her. Hillary's getting less than 79% of the Indepedent vote, so there's not much to take from that group. To make it clear her base is positively energised by this "scandal" is the key take away.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #35 on: October 30, 2016, 03:42:17 PM »


There's that 45% again!
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afleitch
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« Reply #36 on: October 30, 2016, 05:55:33 PM »

These polls are better than their own model

AZ 41-49 in the model v 42-44
CO 47-44 v 42-39
NC 48-46 v 48-45
PA 47-47 v 48-40

So on average Clinton does 1 point worse (without CO, 1 point better) and Trump 4 points worse in comparison to their model.
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Lachi
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« Reply #37 on: October 30, 2016, 06:02:45 PM »

I didn't think it would have any effect, I didn't expect it to actually backfire a bit.
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OneJ
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« Reply #38 on: October 30, 2016, 10:03:06 PM »

AZ looks promising. If Trump is only leading by 2 in this poll and Hillary is up 70-18 among Latinos (and Trump won't likely grow much among them if at all), then she could seriously win it!
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #39 on: October 31, 2016, 01:25:24 AM »

PA and NC look excellent. The CO numbers are a bit low.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #40 on: October 31, 2016, 01:26:55 AM »

I don't trust these polls. I need all new sample groups each time.
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EpicHistory
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« Reply #41 on: October 31, 2016, 10:49:10 AM »


Sample size is only around 300 per state, and the poll was conducted on Friday and Saturday. They sure as hell didn't have a chance to collect meaningful results on Friday, and it takes days for effects to be seen as polls. Give it a week of regular news coverage before trying a victory dance, Reds.
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