NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)

[NOVA Green]

Not too worried about Florida yet....

Seniors and Anglos tend to vote early at the highest numbers.

Both Demographics favor Trump in Florida, where he is clearly leading in both overlapping Demographics, excepting excepting SE FL where Broward and Palm Beach will likely be the exception.

Millennials and Latinos are more likely to vote closer to election day, and less likely to answer the phone from weird numbers, that include polling firms.

Polling is notoriously tricky in Florida, and quite frankly there aren't enough Dem crossover voters left to flip the state, considering that a large majority of first time voters are not in traditionally Republican categories out there.

I know... I know... I know.... "But Trump is now leading in several recent polls of Florida !!!". "Dixiecrats are coming out in droves for Trump".... "Midwest retirees in Tampa- St Pete are swinging hard R", "Cuban-Americans are coming home in Miami-Dade".

All of these statements could well be true, however at this point the EV numbers from FL do not yet appear to suggest a major swing towards Trump, and this state will likely be fairly close on ED but with a potentially narrow Trump win on ED to maybe a C +5 win.

Point is, we can't look at just a handful of recent polls and make broad assumptions at a point where it looks like Clinton's national lead has shrunk from 7-8% to 5-6% over the past two weeks.

The clock is ticking, votes are being cast, and I suspect that actual ED turnout will heavily favor Clinton based upon the new Millennial and Latino voters showing up at the polls for the first time ever.