NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)

[Person Man]

Looks like North Carolina ist in d/ie/as/er frieval?

I'll definitely take 288 EVs. Looks like Trump might his way to a 2004-style result. Though I think Republicans haven't improved yet in Nevada and they need to a lot so maybe 294 votes with Florida deciding between a 2012 and a 2004-like result?

[Person Man]

@NateSilver538

Not totally crazy to think Clinton could win NV and NC but lose PA, FL and NH (and OH and IA). That would yield an... interesting map.

Clinton isn't going to lose PA and NH

http://www.270towin.com/maps/Qxd2b
It would then come down to CD-2 on whether Hillary wins on Congress gets to rig for Trump.

[Person Man]

Early vote numbers looks fine in FL so far, she'll have ground game advantage with a hard to capture Latino vote, she's led like 10 polls in a row in FL, but she gets a T+4 and tied H2H and she's sunk? Y'all are out of your damn minds.

As all Nates are saying. Polls >>>>> early voting. So combined models (Upshot in NC) are probably best.

Basically, Trump is done in NC and might be making it a recount worthy race in FL.

[Person Man]

Given NC early voting, it seems that the most realistic victory for Trump is:

Romney - NC + FL + OH + IA + NV + ME-02

Trump could possibly lose NE-02 in this scenario and even fail to win ME-02 for 269 electoral votes.

But given NV early voting, which has been even more favorable for Clinton, this seems very hard to achieve.

Yoy mean with Pennsylvania?