NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Good polls for Hillary. Intresting that Johnson is getting 8% in NC

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I'm really surprised tbh, never expected NC to be to the left of FL

Yeah, by 8% if you average NC and FL polls by Marist and Siena. Oh!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Good polls for Hillary. Intresting that Johnson is getting 8% in NC

Libertarians have recently done pretty well in NC.

Yeah, and Siena/Upshot has him at 8% as well. But he is not getting anything in early vote.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

So it looks like NC is solidify for Clinton, while Florida is now back to a pure tossup.

Yeah, NC is sort of must win for Trump. Hopefully, Weiner gate will drive Republicans from Johnson/undecided voters back to Trump.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Early vote numbers looks fine in FL so far, she'll have ground game advantage with a hard to capture Latino vote, she's led like 10 polls in a row in FL, but she gets a T+4 and tied H2H and she's sunk? Y'all are out of your damn minds.

As all Nates are saying. Polls >>>>> early voting. So combined models (Upshot in NC) are probably best.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Early vote numbers looks fine in FL so far, she'll have ground game advantage with a hard to capture Latino vote, she's led like 10 polls in a row in FL, but she gets a T+4 and tied H2H and she's sunk? Y'all are out of your damn minds.

As all Nates are saying. Polls >>>>> early voting. So combined models (Upshot in NC) are probably best.

Basically, Trump is done in NC and might be making it a recount worthy race in FL.

Basically Trump has between 9% (Upshot) and 22% (538) to win before FBI gate is counted in

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Don't forget also, that both Siena and Marist has D-house effect.  (You never forget to mention it when it is Quinnipiac's polls)