NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)

[The Other Castro]

Not great to see such close polls recently in Florida (since I want a sizeable victory), but North Carolina is great news to people that only care about the big win. Without NC, there is no realistic path for Trump to win. He's not winning PA, he's not winning CO, and he's not winning MI.

[The Other Castro]

@NateSilver538

Not totally crazy to think Clinton could win NV and NC but lose PA, FL and NH (and OH and IA). That would yield an... interesting map.

Uh no it is crazy to think Trump could win PA. Silver is a big hot mess.

[The Other Castro]

Early vote numbers looks fine in FL so far, she'll have ground game advantage with a hard to capture Latino vote, she's led like 10 polls in a row in FL, but she gets a T+4 and tied H2H and she's sunk? Y'all are out of your damn minds.

As all Nates are saying. Polls >>>>> early voting. So combined models (Upshot in NC) are probably best.

Basically, Trump is done in NC and might be making it a recount worthy race in FL.

It'd be interesting to see how an inconsequential recount works in FL.