NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
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  NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
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Author Topic: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)  (Read 5525 times)
Dutch Conservative
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« Reply #25 on: October 30, 2016, 08:23:22 AM »

Here's Trump's path to victory without NC:



Safe to say it's ridiculous.

He doesnt need Wisconsin and Maine 2nd when he wins Nevada. Nev+Fl+PA = 270.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #26 on: October 30, 2016, 08:25:13 AM »

@NateSilver538

Not totally crazy to think Clinton could win NV and NC but lose PA, FL and NH (and OH and IA). That would yield an... interesting map.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #27 on: October 30, 2016, 08:26:36 AM »

@NateSilver538

Not totally crazy to think Clinton could win NV and NC but lose PA, FL and NH (and OH and IA). That would yield an... interesting map.


Yes it is. Hillary aint loosing PA or NH.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #28 on: October 30, 2016, 08:27:31 AM »

@NateSilver538

Not totally crazy to think Clinton could win NV and NC but lose PA, FL and NH (and OH and IA). That would yield an... interesting map.


Uh no it is crazy to think Trump could win PA. Silver is a big hot mess.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #29 on: October 30, 2016, 08:27:44 AM »

@NateSilver538

Not totally crazy to think Clinton could win NV and NC but lose PA, FL and NH (and OH and IA). That would yield an... interesting map.


It's like 95% crazy though. Her leads in both PA and NH have been solid.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #30 on: October 30, 2016, 08:27:57 AM »

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windjammer
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« Reply #31 on: October 30, 2016, 08:28:27 AM »

@NateSilver538

Not totally crazy to think Clinton could win NV and NC but lose PA, FL and NH (and OH and IA). That would yield an... interesting map.

Clinton isn't going to lose PA and NH
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Person Man
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« Reply #32 on: October 30, 2016, 08:33:13 AM »

@NateSilver538

Not totally crazy to think Clinton could win NV and NC but lose PA, FL and NH (and OH and IA). That would yield an... interesting map.

Clinton isn't going to lose PA and NH

http://www.270towin.com/maps/Qxd2b
It would then come down to CD-2 on whether Hillary wins on Congress gets to rig for Trump.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #33 on: October 30, 2016, 08:34:17 AM »

NC could be a lot more pivotal than anyone thought. It almost looks like another Virginia in some polls. It was an extra state for Obama in 2012 but could be part of a Clinton firewall

I'm starting to think North Carolina is gone for Republicans this election. There are no indicators that suggest they're going to pull it out like in 2012. The state's significance extends beyond its 15 EVs. The defeats of Burr and McCrory would be massive victories for NC Democrats.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #34 on: October 30, 2016, 08:59:09 AM »

Early vote numbers looks fine in FL so far, she'll have ground game advantage with a hard to capture Latino vote, she's led like 10 polls in a row in FL, but she gets a T+4 and tied H2H and she's sunk? Y'all are out of your damn minds.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #35 on: October 30, 2016, 09:02:08 AM »

Hmm. NC is polled quite a lot recently.

Hillary seems to be ahead but I have a gut feeling that this will still be really tight in the end.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #36 on: October 30, 2016, 09:06:55 AM »

Early vote numbers looks fine in FL so far, she'll have ground game advantage with a hard to capture Latino vote, she's led like 10 polls in a row in FL, but she gets a T+4 and tied H2H and she's sunk? Y'all are out of your damn minds.

As all Nates are saying. Polls >>>>> early voting. So combined models (Upshot in NC) are probably best.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #37 on: October 30, 2016, 09:26:06 AM »

Here's Trump's path to victory without NC:



Safe to say it's ridiculous.

He doesnt need Wisconsin and Maine 2nd when he wins Nevada. Nev+Fl+PA = 270.

Riiiight.
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Person Man
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« Reply #38 on: October 30, 2016, 09:29:01 AM »

Early vote numbers looks fine in FL so far, she'll have ground game advantage with a hard to capture Latino vote, she's led like 10 polls in a row in FL, but she gets a T+4 and tied H2H and she's sunk? Y'all are out of your damn minds.

As all Nates are saying. Polls >>>>> early voting. So combined models (Upshot in NC) are probably best.
Basically, Trump is done in NC and might be making it a recount worthy race in FL.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #39 on: October 30, 2016, 09:34:49 AM »

Early vote numbers looks fine in FL so far, she'll have ground game advantage with a hard to capture Latino vote, she's led like 10 polls in a row in FL, but she gets a T+4 and tied H2H and she's sunk? Y'all are out of your damn minds.

As all Nates are saying. Polls >>>>> early voting. So combined models (Upshot in NC) are probably best.
Basically, Trump is done in NC and might be making it a recount worthy race in FL.

It'd be interesting to see how an inconsequential recount works in FL.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #40 on: October 30, 2016, 09:39:39 AM »

Early vote numbers looks fine in FL so far, she'll have ground game advantage with a hard to capture Latino vote, she's led like 10 polls in a row in FL, but she gets a T+4 and tied H2H and she's sunk? Y'all are out of your damn minds.

As all Nates are saying. Polls >>>>> early voting. So combined models (Upshot in NC) are probably best.
Basically, Trump is done in NC and might be making it a recount worthy race in FL.

Basically Trump has between 9% (Upshot) and 22% (538) to win before FBI gate is counted in Smiley
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indysaff
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« Reply #41 on: October 30, 2016, 09:44:08 AM »

Ew
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #42 on: October 30, 2016, 09:53:41 AM »

Don't forget also, that both Siena and Marist has D-house effect.  (You never forget to mention it when it is Quinnipiac's polls) Roll Eyes
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Maxwell
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« Reply #43 on: October 30, 2016, 09:56:21 AM »

north carolina u wot mate

seriously why is North Carolina going to be Clinton's saving grace? I'm kind of lost here.

unless of course RE-ALIGNMENT, then I'm fine Tongue
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #44 on: October 30, 2016, 10:11:42 AM »

New Poll: Florida President by Marist College on 2016-10-26

Summary: D: 45%, R: 44%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #45 on: October 30, 2016, 10:13:31 AM »

New Poll: North Carolina President by Marist College on 2016-10-26

Summary: D: 47%, R: 41%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #46 on: October 30, 2016, 10:15:57 AM »

Hmm. NC is polled quite a lot recently.

Hillary seems to be ahead but I have a gut feeling that this will still be really tight in the end.

Take your dog sweat to /TheDonald/
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Ronnie
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« Reply #47 on: October 30, 2016, 10:26:07 AM »

Hillary should just camp out in NC until Election Day, imo.  If she wins that state, she can't lose.
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Ljube
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« Reply #48 on: October 30, 2016, 01:44:53 PM »

Given NC early voting, it seems that the most realistic victory for Trump is:

Romney - NC + FL + OH + IA + NV + ME-02

Trump could possibly lose NE-02 in this scenario and even fail to win ME-02 for 269 electoral votes.

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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #49 on: October 30, 2016, 01:46:24 PM »

Given NC early voting, it seems that the most realistic victory for Trump is:

Romney - NC + FL + OH + IA + NV + ME-02

Trump could possibly lose NE-02 in this scenario and even fail to win ME-02 for 269 electoral votes.



But given NV early voting, which has been even more favorable for Clinton, this seems very hard to achieve.
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