FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4

[Seriously?]

I must say I did not expect this....

I did. Trump is somehow still ahead in the Early vote after almost a week. The underlying model of a lot of these other polls does not look right.

[Seriously?]

I did. Trump is somehow still ahead in the Early vote after almost a week. The underlying model of a lot of these other polls does not look right.

Did they mention an exact number for their early voter subsample?  I didn't see it in the article.

I havent deep delved into that, but that's definitely a point of calibration. They do have the ultimate poll at R+2.

It's roughly about even at this point in time. I think Trump has a 30K lead as of yesterday.

[Seriously?]

I just don't understand where a Trump lead would come from is all - hispanics are turning against him, and there hasn't been any polling showing Trump doing any better than Romney with white voters.

Look at the early vote numbers. Obviously, things could significantly change today since it's likely to be the heaviest pro-D day with all the church-sponsored stuff, but Trump slightly ahead between absentees and early vote. Unless this somehow changes over the next few days, you're looking at an R+ electorate in Florida, which favors Trump.

Republicans traditionally vote on Election Day there. Democrats use their padded lead to stave off any Republican advance.

[Seriously?]

I think in this case, Cohn's Likely Voter model isn't going to fare so well when the votes are counted.

Party Reg, he has it at D+1. The Early Vote right favors the Republicans and Republicans traditionally show up on election day in Florida.  Obviously, we'll have a lot more color after today, traditionally one of the biggest D days in the Early vote cycle.

[Seriously?]

Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).

I don't know why you don't think 11% of the black vote is attainable in an election where the Democrat candidate is white. Traditionally, the Republican share of the black vote is somewhere between 8-12%. With Obama not running, you'd think there'd be a return to the mean.