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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4 (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4  (Read 6281 times)
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,058
« on: October 30, 2016, 12:53:00 pm »

Okay, everyone calm down (including the Trump supporters). Consider the following from the poll write up:

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Recall a previous Upshot feature where different pollsters were given the same Florida dataset and calculated the margin. The two pollsters weighing on party registration predicted 2-4 points higher votes for Trump relative to the one who didn't, holding likely voter screens equal.

The very good writeup also mentions two possible poll biases toward Trump:
- Oversampling of Republicans who support Trump rather than staying home, since weighing was done on party registration.
- The usual likely voter screen critique. Specifically, the voter screen may have worked against minorities sampled in the poll: if Latino or Black voters don't respond that they're very likely to vote, the Cuban-Americans crowd out other votes.
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