FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4

[Cruzcrew]

Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).

I don't know why you don't think 11% of the black vote is attainable in an election where the Democrat candidate is white. Traditionally, the Republican share of the black vote is somewhere between 8-12%. With Obama not running, you'd think there'd be a return to the mean.

What might be happening is reduced democratic AA turnout with Obama off the ballot to the tune of 1-2 percentage points of the electorate back to normal levels when GOP candidates traditionally got about 10% of the AA vote. But Trump is a pretty bad fit for them so I'd expect him to get about 6% of the AA vote with reduced turnout.