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October 23, 2020, 12:24:28 AM
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4 (search mode)
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Author Topic: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4  (Read 6313 times)
HillOfANight
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Posts: 1,459
« on: October 30, 2016, 10:33:59 AM »

IIRC, Cohn mentioned one of the downsides of this type of polling is that it fails to pick up on new registrants, which would miss a recent surge in Hispanics registration. That alone probably wouldn't yield a Trump +4 lead though.

That's correct. They use voter registration file so it won't pick up the most recently registered voters.

But nonetheless, 4 point lead is huge.

That should be a negligible effect though. The biggest difference in this poll is that it weights to party registration, which it notes, lots of other pollster don't. Remains to be seen how accurate this will turn out.
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HillOfANight
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Posts: 1,459
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2016, 02:59:35 PM »

I think something is happening that is unique to Florida.  Early voting shows insane turnout in the retiree counties, basically even with the total 2012 early vote already.  She needs a ton of crossover from Cuban R's to stay in this.

Is it possible turnout taps out eventually? Is there evidence registration has surged there?
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