FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4

[Ebsy]

I will say about Florida, Trump has been spending an insane amount of time campaigning there, to the detriment of his campaign elsewhere. The presence of a candidate in a state can temporarily impact polling.

[Ebsy]

I think in this case, Cohn's Likely Voter model isn't going to fare so well when the votes are counted.

[Ebsy]

If things weren't bad enough for Democrats, these polls were taken before the FBI reopened investigation.

Thanks for that hard hitting analysis.