FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 02:48:30 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3]
Author Topic: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4  (Read 7919 times)
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,166
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #50 on: October 30, 2016, 12:30:48 PM »

Florida's lost, world's ending, Clinton stands no chance, we're finished. Tongue

Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #51 on: October 30, 2016, 12:52:24 PM »

I just don't understand where a Trump lead would come from is all - hispanics are turning against him, and there hasn't been any polling showing Trump doing any better than Romney with white voters.
Look at the early vote numbers. Obviously, things could significantly change today since it's likely to be the heaviest pro-D day with all the church-sponsored stuff, but Trump slightly ahead between absentees and early vote. Unless this somehow changes over the next few days, you're looking at an R+ electorate in Florida, which favors Trump.

Republicans traditionally vote on Election Day there. Democrats use their padded lead to stave off any Republican advance.
Logged
Foucaulf
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,050
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #52 on: October 30, 2016, 12:53:00 PM »

Okay, everyone calm down (including the Trump supporters). Consider the following from the poll write up:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Recall a previous Upshot feature where different pollsters were given the same Florida dataset and calculated the margin. The two pollsters weighing on party registration predicted 2-4 points higher votes for Trump relative to the one who didn't, holding likely voter screens equal.

The very good writeup also mentions two possible poll biases toward Trump:
- Oversampling of Republicans who support Trump rather than staying home, since weighing was done on party registration.
- The usual likely voter screen critique. Specifically, the voter screen may have worked against minorities sampled in the poll: if Latino or Black voters don't respond that they're very likely to vote, the Cuban-Americans crowd out other votes.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #53 on: October 30, 2016, 01:19:51 PM »

I will say about Florida, Trump has been spending an insane amount of time campaigning there, to the detriment of his campaign elsewhere. The presence of a candidate in a state can temporarily impact polling.
Logged
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,987
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #54 on: October 30, 2016, 01:23:10 PM »

I will say about Florida, Trump has been spending an insane amount of time campaigning there, to the detriment of his campaign elsewhere. The presence of a candidate in a state can temporarily impact polling.

Florida is a must win state for Trump.


Logged
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,987
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #55 on: October 30, 2016, 01:25:00 PM »

I think something is happening that is unique to Florida.  Early voting shows insane turnout in the retiree counties, basically even with the total 2012 early vote already.  She needs a ton of crossover from Cuban R's to stay in this.

Cubans are coming home to Trump.
That's pretty clear.
Logged
OneJ
OneJ_
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,834
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #56 on: October 30, 2016, 01:25:40 PM »

Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).
Logged
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,987
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #57 on: October 30, 2016, 01:27:32 PM »

Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).

OK. We just need to wait 9 more days and see for sure.

I'm not saying Trump will win Florida by a big margin. I think the best he can hope for is a 1-2% win.
Logged
dspNY
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,802
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #58 on: October 30, 2016, 01:28:22 PM »

Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).

OK. We just need to wait 9 more days and see for sure.

I'm not saying Trump will win Florida by a big margin. I think the best he can hope for is a 1-2% win.


I think this is the reasonable best case scenario for Trump in FL
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,351
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #59 on: October 30, 2016, 01:55:54 PM »

Ugggg.
Logged
ApatheticAustrian
ApathicAustrian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,603
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #60 on: October 30, 2016, 02:55:26 PM »

yeah, trump can win FL.

and if he is not, we won't be able to see it before election day.
Logged
HillOfANight
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,459
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #61 on: October 30, 2016, 02:59:35 PM »

I think something is happening that is unique to Florida.  Early voting shows insane turnout in the retiree counties, basically even with the total 2012 early vote already.  She needs a ton of crossover from Cuban R's to stay in this.

Is it possible turnout taps out eventually? Is there evidence registration has surged there?
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #62 on: October 30, 2016, 04:32:01 PM »

I think in this case, Cohn's Likely Voter model isn't going to fare so well when the votes are counted.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #63 on: October 30, 2016, 05:26:26 PM »

I think in this case, Cohn's Likely Voter model isn't going to fare so well when the votes are counted.
Party Reg, he has it at D+1. The Early Vote right favors the Republicans and Republicans traditionally show up on election day in Florida.  Obviously, we'll have a lot more color after today, traditionally one of the biggest D days in the Early vote cycle.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #64 on: October 30, 2016, 05:57:14 PM »

I think we'll all need to reexamine some of these Southern States once the Souls to the Polls numbers kick in tomorrow and SoS sites report the numbers.

I'm not going to geek out just because of a few polls, although data points appear to be converging that potentially Clinton's margins in NC could well outperform her FL margins.
Logged
Wade McDaniel
Rookie
**
Posts: 106
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #65 on: October 30, 2016, 08:11:19 PM »

If things weren't bad enough for Democrats, these polls were taken before the FBI reopened investigation.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #66 on: October 30, 2016, 11:59:07 PM »

If things weren't bad enough for Democrats, these polls were taken before the FBI reopened investigation.
Thanks for that hard hitting analysis.
Logged
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,610
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #67 on: October 31, 2016, 12:18:42 AM »

FL was always going to be a Trump state, he always got his highest % there, sometimes polling as high as 47-49%.
Logged
Cashew
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,559
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #68 on: October 31, 2016, 12:22:55 AM »

FL was always going to be a Trump state, he always got his highest % there, sometimes polling as high as 47-49%.
Has gotta be a concern troll.
Logged
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,610
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #69 on: October 31, 2016, 12:23:55 AM »

FL was always going to be a Trump state, he always got his highest % there, sometimes polling as high as 47-49%.
Has gotta be a concern troll.

The ignore button is right there.
Logged
Cashew
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,559
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #70 on: October 31, 2016, 12:25:17 AM »

FL was always going to be a Trump state, he always got his highest % there, sometimes polling as high as 47-49%.
Has gotta be a concern troll.

The ignore button is right there.
I have no need for a safe space.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,624
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #71 on: October 31, 2016, 12:37:21 AM »

Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).

OK. We just need to wait 9 more days and see for sure.

I'm not saying Trump will win Florida by a big margin. I think the best he can hope for is a 1-2% win.


Ljube, Cubans are not coming home to Trump. What Trump may be doing, if he is winning in Florida, is overperforming with older, formerly Democratic-voting whites. There are business organizations in Miami that have endorsed every Republican nominee since the 1960s, including Goldwater, and they have uniformly backed Hillary Clinton in this election. It isn't happening.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #72 on: October 31, 2016, 06:47:05 AM »

Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).
I don't know why you don't think 11% of the black vote is attainable in an election where the Democrat candidate is white. Traditionally, the Republican share of the black vote is somewhere between 8-12%. With Obama not running, you'd think there'd be a return to the mean.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #73 on: October 31, 2016, 06:52:34 AM »

Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).
I don't know why you don't think 11% of the black vote is attainable in an election where the Democrat candidate is white. Traditionally, the Republican share of the black vote is somewhere between 8-12%. With Obama not running, you'd think there'd be a return to the mean.

While all this is true, Trump is not a "generic R" for African-Americans giving his birtherist smearing of Obama over the last several years and his record of discrimination in housing.
Logged
Cruzcrew
Paleocon
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 568
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #74 on: October 31, 2016, 06:54:50 AM »

Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).
I don't know why you don't think 11% of the black vote is attainable in an election where the Democrat candidate is white. Traditionally, the Republican share of the black vote is somewhere between 8-12%. With Obama not running, you'd think there'd be a return to the mean.

What might be happening is reduced democratic AA turnout with Obama off the ballot to the tune of 1-2 percentage points of the electorate back to normal levels when GOP candidates traditionally got about 10% of the AA vote. But Trump is a pretty bad fit for them so I'd expect him to get about 6% of the AA vote with reduced turnout.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 [3]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.056 seconds with 14 queries.