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  AK-Craciun Research: Clinton +4
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Author Topic: AK-Craciun Research: Clinton +4  (Read 4246 times)
Speed of Sound
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« Reply #50 on: October 29, 2016, 10:45:44 pm »

Amazing if this happens.  This is what we need--increase the presence of "blue state" people to red states by in-migration and higher birth rates.  This way, we can really put places like Alaska, the Dakotas, and Montana--that's 8 Senate seats right there.  It's our form of gerrymandering!

... getting ahead of ourselves a little bit here.

You're one to talk recently.
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Cosmopolitanism Will Win
Antonio V
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« Reply #51 on: October 29, 2016, 10:47:46 pm »

Amazing if this happens.  This is what we need--increase the presence of "blue state" people to red states by in-migration and higher birth rates.  This way, we can really put places like Alaska, the Dakotas, and Montana--that's 8 Senate seats right there.  It's our form of gerrymandering!

... getting ahead of ourselves a little bit here.

You're one to talk recently.

Huh? I've been one of the most cautious Hillary supporters.
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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« Reply #52 on: October 29, 2016, 10:53:18 pm »

Amazing if this happens.  This is what we need--increase the presence of "blue state" people to red states by in-migration and higher birth rates.  This way, we can really put places like Alaska, the Dakotas, and Montana--that's 8 Senate seats right there.  It's our form of gerrymandering!

... getting ahead of ourselves a little bit here.

You're one to talk recently.

Huh? I've been one of the most cautious Hillary supporters.

In the last 48 hours, you've been way ahead of yourself in running from the sky falling. Doesn't mean what you pointed out isn't true--the "blue wave" demo predictions have gotten a bit crazy.
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Cosmopolitanism Will Win
Antonio V
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« Reply #53 on: October 29, 2016, 10:54:52 pm »

Amazing if this happens.  This is what we need--increase the presence of "blue state" people to red states by in-migration and higher birth rates.  This way, we can really put places like Alaska, the Dakotas, and Montana--that's 8 Senate seats right there.  It's our form of gerrymandering!

... getting ahead of ourselves a little bit here.

You're one to talk recently.

Huh? I've been one of the most cautious Hillary supporters.

In the last 48 hours, you've been way ahead of yourself in running from the sky falling. Doesn't mean what you pointed out isn't true--the "blue wave" demo predictions have gotten a bit crazy.

I'm risk-averse, which means I tend to pay more attention to the downside than the upside. Which is the exact opposite of what the other poster was doing.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #54 on: October 29, 2016, 10:59:18 pm »

Methinks a Begich-esque loss for Hillary is most likely now.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #55 on: October 29, 2016, 11:24:45 pm »

The weird thing with Alaska is that a large majority of votes are actually cast on ED.

So, for example if early returns show Clinton wining big time it could play both ways in terms of both Democratic and Republican turnout.

So we have a state that is 1-2 time zones out from the West Coast that typically locals feel like their vote doesn't matter when an outcome is already decided, how will this actually play out on ED?

Will it benefit Trump/Clinton or be a total wash when it comes to Alaskans voting in a Pres Election, with no major statewide candidates and ballot measures to spark turnout???

There is an interesting Senate race there, although I think pretty much everyone agrees Murkowski is headed for a comfortable re-election.

But she is considered a total Maverick, although with slightly less gravitas than former Senator Ernest Gruening, who was one of two Senators (The other being Oregonians much beloved Mark Hatfield) to vote against the Gulf of Tonkin resolution that created an authorization of War in Vietnam, where the lies of the LBJ administration is now historical evidence.

Murkowski won an election as independent after losing against a total Tea-Bagger, and the voters of her state feel that she represents their statewide interests...

So yes... agreed that she wins comfortably, while the state runs close at the Presidential level...

Out here in the PacNW we like our Senators to have a spine and buck party lines on principle, but Trump is viewed on a completely separate level. Smiley


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Biden My Time
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« Reply #56 on: October 29, 2016, 11:49:58 pm »

Perhaps this is Alaska's way of apologizing to us for giving us you know who.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #57 on: October 30, 2016, 12:00:54 am »

Perhaps this is Alaska's way of apologizing to us for giving us you know who.

Or maybe giving us a potential VP Palin, which I think is where you're going with all this.... Wink
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #58 on: October 30, 2016, 12:25:26 am »

Polling out of Alaska is notoriously bad ...
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #59 on: October 30, 2016, 12:26:10 am »

#HISTORICLANDSLIDE
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Monstro
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« Reply #60 on: October 30, 2016, 04:09:10 am »

Pretty amazing that the chances of Hillary winning Alaska & Texas is bigger than the chances of Trump winning Virginia
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President Johnson
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« Reply #61 on: October 30, 2016, 04:20:03 am »

Honestly, I don't think so. As much as I like it to be true.

Btw, has Gov. Walker endorsed yet?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #62 on: October 30, 2016, 04:22:01 am »

Honestly, I don't think so. As much as I like it to be true.

Btw, has Gov. Walker endorsed yet?

I don't expect AK to go Dem, BUT I don't think we can rely purely on what should happen in a normal election.
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Wade McDaniel
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« Reply #63 on: October 30, 2016, 04:23:12 am »

How many Democrats were polled compared to Republicans in this sample?
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politicallefty
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« Reply #64 on: October 30, 2016, 04:23:25 am »

Polling out of Alaska is notoriously bad ...

I know I said this before, but I think a lot of bad polling in Alaska has had to do with long-time incumbents outperforming the polls (namely Ted Stevens and Don Young). I'm not sure the polling has been that beyond that.

Democrats have done fairly well in Alaska within the past 10 years. Mark Begich was elected in 2008, defeating an institution of Alaska politics (Ted Stevens). If took a wave in 2014 to take him out, and only barely then. Democrats once reached parity in the Alaska Senate and got very close in the Alaska House. And if you recall, before her national prominence, Sarah Palin was quite popular on both sides (before she fully joined the Fox News types). I remembering seeing Sarah Palin on the news once or twice shortly after her election and I thought she was a pretty compelling figure at the time (this was way before McCain chose her as his running mate). If it wasn't for her, Democrats probably would have won the Governorship in 2006 and Obama could have possibly even won the state in 2008.
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Wade McDaniel
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« Reply #65 on: October 30, 2016, 04:24:46 am »

Polling out of Alaska is notoriously bad ...

I know I said this before, but I think a lot of bad polling in Alaska has had to do with long-time incumbents outperforming the polls (namely Ted Stevens and Don Young). I'm not sure the polling has been that beyond that.

Democrats have done fairly well in Alaska within the past 10 years. Mark Begich was elected in 2008, defeating an institution of Alaska politics (Ted Stevens). If took a wave in 2014 to take him out, and only barely then. Democrats once reached parity in the Alaska Senate and got very close in the Alaska House. And if you recall, before her national prominence, Sarah Palin was quite popular on both sides (before she fully joined the Fox News types). I remembering seeing Sarah Palin on the news once or twice shortly after her election and I thought she was a pretty compelling figure at the time (this was way before McCain chose her as his running mate). If it wasn't for her, Democrats probably would have won the Governorship in 2006 and Obama could have possibly even won the state in 2008.

I agree with all of this except Obama would've lost there in 2008.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #66 on: October 30, 2016, 04:47:55 am »

This could be the reason:

http://www.nativefederation.org/afn-endorses-presidential-candidate-hillary-clinton/

The Native American population is growing in AK while the white population is decreasing

I can see Natives and Mormons going to great lengths to humiliate Trump and make it a nightmare for him to govern beyond the Mississippi/Missouri if he makes it.

There won't be any Trail of Tears after this election, that's for sure. Wink Or if there will, it'll be a trail of tears going up the escalator in Trump Tower. Tongue
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #67 on: October 30, 2016, 06:36:22 am »

Polling out of Alaska is notoriously bad ...

True. Alaska is a tough state to poll because of its ethnic and regional divides. See also Texas, or maybe California if it were close.

This pollster seems to take regional and ethnic divides seriously.

Except for the presence of oil as a dominant driver of the economy, Alaska would seem to have much more in common with other states on the West Coast. 
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ReapSow
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« Reply #68 on: October 30, 2016, 06:53:07 am »

Trump is due for a popular vote whooping nationwide. The close margins in all these Republican states are going to shrink his vote total and it's going to be a beautiful gap if third parties underperform nationally.
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Badger
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« Reply #69 on: October 30, 2016, 10:00:09 am »

Polling out of Alaska is notoriously bad ...

So Hillary might be up even higher?!? Shocked
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #70 on: October 30, 2016, 10:13:18 am »

SENSATIONAL!!!  Get Bernie on the plane, pronto!
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #71 on: October 30, 2016, 10:16:12 am »

How many Democrats were polled compared to Republicans in this sample?
Mods please IP check.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #72 on: October 30, 2016, 01:00:48 pm »

inuits for hillary!

nate's take:
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https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/792769671808356352
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Scott🦋
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« Reply #73 on: October 30, 2016, 01:22:58 pm »

I'm kind of surprised they didn't poll the Senate election, where Joe Miller and the Democrat someguy again battle for second place.
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Bland Neoliberal Consensus Democrat
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« Reply #74 on: October 31, 2016, 07:39:57 am »

polLOL.
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