NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
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  NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
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Author Topic: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)  (Read 5527 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #50 on: October 30, 2016, 01:52:44 PM »

Given NC early voting, it seems that the most realistic victory for Trump is:

Romney - NC + FL + OH + IA + NV + ME-02

Trump could possibly lose NE-02 in this scenario and even fail to win ME-02 for 269 electoral votes.



No, that's still only 251 for Trump.  He would need PA as well.



D: 287
R: 251
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Person Man
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« Reply #51 on: October 30, 2016, 01:54:00 PM »

Given NC early voting, it seems that the most realistic victory for Trump is:

Romney - NC + FL + OH + IA + NV + ME-02

Trump could possibly lose NE-02 in this scenario and even fail to win ME-02 for 269 electoral votes.



But given NV early voting, which has been even more favorable for Clinton, this seems very hard to achieve.
Yoy mean with Pennsylvania?
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #52 on: October 30, 2016, 01:54:44 PM »

Given NC early voting, it seems that the most realistic victory for Trump is:

Romney - NC + FL + OH + IA + NV + ME-02

Trump could possibly lose NE-02 in this scenario and even fail to win ME-02 for 269 electoral votes.



But given NV early voting, which has been even more favorable for Clinton, this seems very hard to achieve.
Yoy mean with Pennsylvania?

Don't even get me started on how impossible PA is for Trump.
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Ljube
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« Reply #53 on: October 30, 2016, 01:55:20 PM »

I forgot to add PA.

Somehow, I am taking PA for granted. Smiley
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #54 on: October 30, 2016, 02:03:31 PM »

I forgot to add PA.
Somehow, I am taking PA for granted. Smiley

Pffffffffff !
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Ljube
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« Reply #55 on: October 30, 2016, 02:09:29 PM »


Smiley

Well, back to the drawing board.

And I need more info before I come up with another Trump win that is actually realistic.

Smiley
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #56 on: October 30, 2016, 02:16:47 PM »

Clinton hasn't trailed in a non-internal poll since September 20. Hard to see how she will lose this thing.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #57 on: October 30, 2016, 02:54:25 PM »

the point is that trump's natural base will.....maybe this cycle or next cycle...just not be ABLE anymore to win PA. illinois lite.
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Cashew
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« Reply #58 on: October 30, 2016, 03:16:50 PM »

Hopefully this reflects in the state legislature as well.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #59 on: October 30, 2016, 03:52:12 PM »

Good thing she can afford to lose Florida if she wins North Carolina.

Er, she can afford to lose Florida even if she does lose North Carolina...
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Panda Express
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« Reply #60 on: October 30, 2016, 06:45:48 PM »

Most people thought Romney was going to win Florida and he was winning in the Florida RCP average at the end. But Barry O's ground game was enough to pull out a win in the end. Remember, Hilldawg has the same ground game apparatus that Barry O had.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #61 on: October 30, 2016, 06:50:44 PM »

Does anyone have the link to the crosstabs?

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/FLpolls/FL161025/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Florida_Tables%20of%20Likely%20Voters_October%2030,%202016.pdf#page=3

Trump getting 36% of the Latino vote... yeah ok.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #62 on: October 30, 2016, 06:53:12 PM »

Most people thought Romney was going to win Florida and he was winning in the Florida RCP average at the end. But Barry O's ground game was enough to pull out a win in the end. Remember, Hilldawg has the same ground game apparatus that Barry O had.

Actually, I think it's better.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #63 on: October 30, 2016, 06:58:41 PM »

Most people thought Romney was going to win Florida and he was winning in the Florida RCP average at the end. But Barry O's ground game was enough to pull out a win in the end. Remember, Hilldawg has the same ground game apparatus that Barry O had.

Can we stop with the Barry O crap? It's insulting.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #64 on: October 30, 2016, 07:11:06 PM »

Not too worried about Florida yet....

Seniors and Anglos tend to vote early at the highest numbers.

Both Demographics favor Trump in Florida, where he is clearly leading in both overlapping Demographics, excepting excepting SE FL where Broward and Palm Beach will likely be the exception.

Millennials and Latinos are more likely to vote closer to election day, and less likely to answer the phone from weird numbers, that include polling firms.

Polling is notoriously tricky in Florida, and quite frankly there aren't enough Dem crossover voters left to flip the state, considering that a large majority of first time voters are not in traditionally Republican categories out there.

I know... I know... I know.... "But Trump is now leading in several recent polls of Florida !!!". "Dixiecrats are coming out in droves for Trump".... "Midwest retirees in Tampa- St Pete are swinging hard R", "Cuban-Americans are coming home in Miami-Dade".

All of these statements could well be true, however at this point the EV numbers from FL do not yet appear to suggest a major swing towards Trump, and this state will likely be fairly close on ED but with a potentially narrow Trump win on ED to maybe a C +5 win.

Point is, we can't look at just a handful of recent polls and make broad assumptions at a point where it looks like Clinton's national lead has shrunk from 7-8% to 5-6% over the past two weeks.

The clock is ticking, votes are being cast, and I suspect that actual ED turnout will heavily favor Clinton based upon the new Millennial and Latino voters showing up at the polls for the first time ever.

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Panda Express
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« Reply #65 on: October 30, 2016, 07:11:36 PM »

Most people thought Romney was going to win Florida and he was winning in the Florida RCP average at the end. But Barry O's ground game was enough to pull out a win in the end. Remember, Hilldawg has the same ground game apparatus that Barry O had.

Can we stop with the Barry O crap? It's insulting.


can I refer to him as B. Obama?
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #66 on: October 30, 2016, 08:36:01 PM »

Most people thought Romney was going to win Florida and he was winning in the Florida RCP average at the end. But Barry O's ground game was enough to pull out a win in the end. Remember, Hilldawg has the same ground game apparatus that Barry O had.

Actually, I think it's better.

A few days ago on the early vote thread I read that the Hispanic vote is making up over 15% of the electorate in Florida...This is up 2% over 2012. Hard to see Hillary losing this state.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #67 on: October 31, 2016, 09:34:12 AM »

Hard to see her losing FL if she wins the election, but who really knows what will happen on election day. Trump certainly has a base in Florida and has been hanging around.

I know HRC has Obama's ground game there, but she isn't Obama so I'm not sold she will perform as well or better than he did on election day.
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