I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
Posts: 113,043
Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67
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« on: October 28, 2016, 09:31:46 PM » |
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Donald Trump (R-NY) / Michael Pence (R-IN) - 300 EVs, (47.1%)
Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Tim Kaine (D-VA) - 238 EVs, (48.4%)
Gary Johnson (L-NM) / William Weld (L-MA) - 0 EVs, (4%)
Evan McMullin (I-UT) / Mindy Finn (I-TX) - 0 EVs, (1.1%)
Jill Stein (G-MA) / Ajamu Baraka (G-IL) - 0 EVs, (0.3%)
My gut says Trump will now win. I think MN, NH, & PA are a bit bold. and could easily go for Clinton.
But let me explain:
MN- Dissatisfied with Obamacare, Midwestern, progressive (They won't fall for Hillary), and White.
PA- Turnout will be high in the Pittsburgh metropolitan area and Central PA, while Trump will win a few counties (Bucks, Lehigh, & Luzerne) in the East. Turnout will be lower in Philadelphia and among AAs overall. This should be enough for Trump to flip the state.
NH- White, Hillary's primary loss, and just my own intuition. I'll probably be wrong on this one though.
Utah will be close and I think Trump will narrowly win the state against McMullin & Clinton splitting the vote enough.
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