Does Trump have a chance in any of these?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 27, 2024, 04:44:43 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Does Trump have a chance in any of these?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Does Trump have a chance in any of these?
#1
Pennsylvania		  
#2
Michigan		  
#3
Virginia (lol)		  
#4
Wisconsin		  
#5
Minnesota (lol)		  
#6
Colorado		  
#7
New Hampshire		  
#8
Maine		  
#9
He'll sweep them (troll)		  
#10
Realistically, none of these.		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 68

Calculate results by number of options selected
Author Topic: Does Trump have a chance in any of these?  (Read 1357 times)
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 28, 2016, 08:44:57 AM »
He has to have one of these to win.
Logged
Fusionmunster
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,483


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2016, 08:47:06 AM »
According to polling at the current moment, he doesn't have much of a chance in any of these.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2016, 08:52:23 AM »
*He'll sweep them (troll)*     ☑
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2016, 08:55:42 AM »
The one that scares me the most is PA, because it leaves Clinton needing either FL or NC+NV. 

MI and VA aren't realistic at all.  And WI and MN were never in real danger.

CO is still possible.  Clinton could make up for it with FL or NC.  NV would make it a 269-269 tie (assuming Trump wins ME-02).  Then we'd be holding our breath on any faithless electors.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2016, 08:57:57 AM »
Highly unlikely - any of them.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,308


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2016, 09:16:08 AM »
None of them. I wouldn't be surprised if the east is a little closer than expected from the polling (due to possible shy Trump effect + low black turnout), but all of these states have a big lead for Clinton right now. A win by 2-3 points is still a win. The west, Texas and Florida will likely perform as the polls indicate. So Colorado and Nevada are safe in my book. Arizona will be close on election day, even if Trump performs better than expected out east.
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,175


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2016, 09:37:41 AM »
Maine shouldn't be an option. It wouldn't actually help him, since it only has two statewide electoral votes. Clinton's freiwal puts her at 272. Removing Maine statewide lowers that to 270.

The most realistic scenario where Maine's statewide EVs make the difference is this:



Clinton 268
Trump 268

And that has a very low chance of happening.

Anyway, I think Trump has a VERY small chance at New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, but it's pretty close to negligible.
Logged
I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 113,043
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2016, 09:38:39 AM »
Hillary has a better chance in Texas than Trump does in Pennsylvania per current polling. Why worry?
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,455
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2016, 09:43:23 AM »
Logged
eric82oslo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,501
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.00, S: -5.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2016, 09:47:20 AM »
Quote from: Eleven on October 28, 2016, 08:55:42 AM
Then we'd be holding our breath on any faithless electors.

Any faithless electors (in a tied scenario) would need Secret Service protection for life, so that's probably not gonna happen.
Logged
Podgy the Bear
mollybecky
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,975


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2016, 09:52:31 AM »
I would have definitely considered Ohio and Iowa if these were listed--otherwise, Hillary sweeps the rest.  Basically, Trump is shut out.
Logged
Lincoln Republican
Winfield
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,348


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2016, 10:22:30 AM »
A month ago, yes, now, no.
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,544
Bhutan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2016, 11:21:55 AM »
Logged
win win
dxu8888
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 855


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2016, 01:54:25 PM »
Depends what you mean by a chance?
A 10% chance to win one of these ? Sure.
A 50% chance, no way.
Logged
Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,637
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2016, 01:55:13 PM »
He'll sweep all except MAL, he'll only get district 2.
Logged
Hammy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,708
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 28, 2016, 01:59:48 PM »
Yes, everything except Minnesota/Michigan now.
Logged
Senator-elect Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,726
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: 0.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 28, 2016, 02:00:32 PM »
PA, MN, CO, NH
Logged
Lambsbread
20RP12
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,365
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 28, 2016, 02:02:47 PM »
Maybe Colorado? If something really crazy happens in the next week and change, possibly NH and PA.
Logged
Cashew
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,567
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 28, 2016, 02:03:08 PM »
Quote from: Messy Masterpiece on October 28, 2016, 09:38:39 AM
Hillary has a better chance in Texas than Trump does in Pennsylvania per current polling. Why worry?
Logged
Hammy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,708
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 28, 2016, 02:07:04 PM »

Clinton could drop out today and she'd still win Minnesota--it isn't flipping this cycle.
Logged
Chunk Yogurt for President!
CELTICEMPIRE
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,236
Georgia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 28, 2016, 02:20:48 PM »
In extreme circumstances anything could happen, but none of these states are more than 1% likely to vote for him.
Logged
elcorazon
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,402


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 28, 2016, 03:17:54 PM »
none of them, but I think his best shot might be WI or NH. Sorry TNVol
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.249 seconds with 15 queries.