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  Talk Elections
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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12  (Read 7365 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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Posts: 3,646
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« on: October 27, 2016, 02:16:51 pm »

Trump needs civil war to win this election.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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Posts: 3,646
Sweden


« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2016, 02:17:30 pm »

A- and R bias.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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Posts: 3,646
Sweden


« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2016, 04:42:10 pm »

this is waaaay better than even I expected. Wow!

somehow Nate Silver's math isn't adding up to me - all of these polls should improve Clinton's chances.

The United States is tops in the world in confidence in our ability to do mathematics.
USA! USA! USA! USA!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2016, 05:01:01 pm »

this is waaaay better than even I expected. Wow!

somehow Nate Silver's math isn't adding up to me - all of these polls should improve Clinton's chances.

The United States is tops in the world in confidence in our ability to do mathematics.
USA! USA! USA! USA!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

Are you critiquing Silver or me?

I mean I guess the big swinger is the Missouri poll showing Trump up 11, but really why should a Missouri poll swing it that much when we basically know Trump is going to win Missouri?
It wasn't meant as critique of this particular post, but about Nate being a clickbait.
I mean it is more or less the same model that was used in 2012 etc. Plus Nate is probably extra cautious bc of ~Brexit'ish phenomena.

I think, Pew was the mostly responsible for it. It has pretty big sample/weight.
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State correlation?
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