Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Trump needs civil war to win this election.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

What does 538 rate them as?

A- and R bias.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

this is waaaay better than even I expected. Wow!

somehow Nate Silver's math isn't adding up to me - all of these polls should improve Clinton's chances.

The United States is tops in the world in confidence in our ability to do mathematics.
USA! USA! USA! USA!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

[Erich Maria Remarque]

this is waaaay better than even I expected. Wow!

somehow Nate Silver's math isn't adding up to me - all of these polls should improve Clinton's chances.

The United States is tops in the world in confidence in our ability to do mathematics.
USA! USA! USA! USA!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

Are you critiquing Silver or me?

I mean I guess the big swinger is the Missouri poll showing Trump up 11, but really why should a Missouri poll swing it that much when we basically know Trump is going to win Missouri?

It wasn't meant as critique of this particular post, but about Nate being a clickbait.
I mean it is more or less the same model that was used in 2012 etc. Plus Nate is probably extra cautious bc of ~Brexit'ish phenomena.

I think, Pew was the mostly responsible for it. It has pretty big sample/weight.

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State correlation?