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December 05, 2020, 12:44:35 AM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

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  Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12  (Read 7944 times)
Ebsy
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« Reply #50 on: October 27, 2016, 03:24:02 PM »

She also leads 61-27 (!!!) among Iowa early voters, which means if the bottom drops on Trumper enthusiasm, Iowa could get ugly quickly.
Iowa early voters are heavily Democratic in most elections.
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dspNY
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« Reply #51 on: October 27, 2016, 03:25:52 PM »

Beautiful polls!!!
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Maxwell
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« Reply #52 on: October 27, 2016, 03:31:28 PM »

RCP had a compromise - they put in the North Carolina and Iowa polls, but hilariously not the Georgia or the Virginia polls.

insert perspiration dog gif.
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Arch
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« Reply #53 on: October 27, 2016, 03:32:44 PM »

RCP had a compromise - they put in the North Carolina and Iowa polls, but hilariously not the Georgia or the Virginia polls.

insert perspiration dog gif.

No wait, you're serious?? Wow
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #54 on: October 27, 2016, 03:35:12 PM »

RCP had a compromise - they put in the North Carolina and Iowa polls, but hilariously not the Georgia or the Virginia polls.

insert perspiration dog gif.

Yep, they do this crap every election year. Pathetic.
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Georgia Democrat in 2020
mollybecky
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« Reply #55 on: October 27, 2016, 03:39:07 PM »

A great report--and gives some hope that because of the strong early voting in Iowa, Hillary could win there as well.

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psychprofessor
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« Reply #56 on: October 27, 2016, 03:43:56 PM »

these polls lowered hillary's chances on 538 lol
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #57 on: October 27, 2016, 03:44:20 PM »

Gotta love that race/education gap in the South.

In Georgia, itís:
whites without college degree:
Trump 69%
Clinton 16%
Johnson 12%

whites with a college degree:
Trump 59%
Clinton 32%
Johnson 5%

non-whites:
Clinton 77%
Trump 9%
Johnson 6%

In the two-way model of this, Clinton's pulling 89% among non-whites (2008 numbers) and 27% among whites (better than 2008 numbers). She only needs a replication of '08 support numbers or slightly below to win the state.

I guess this is why all of the (non-creepy) Trump kids have visited Georgia in the past few days. Sending your top surrogates to a state like Georgia in the final weeks doesn't look good.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #58 on: October 27, 2016, 03:46:36 PM »

withdrawing my complaint - they just added georgia.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #59 on: October 27, 2016, 03:53:06 PM »

Gotta love that race/education gap in the South.

In Georgia, itís:
whites without college degree:
Trump 69%
Clinton 16%
Johnson 12%

whites with a college degree:
Trump 59%
Clinton 32%
Johnson 5%

non-whites:
Clinton 77%
Trump 9%
Johnson 6%

In the two-way model of this, Clinton's pulling 89% among non-whites (2008 numbers) and 27% among whites (better than 2008 numbers). She only needs a replication of '08 support numbers or slightly below to win the state.

I guess this is why all of the (non-creepy) Trump kids have visited Georgia in the past few days. Sending your top surrogates to a state like Georgia in the final weeks doesn't look good.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/10/27/usher-tyra-banks-among-celebs-stumping-for-hillary-clinton-this-weekend/

She's bringing out the big guns (Meg Whitman, Usher, Tyra Banks).
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Cashew
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« Reply #60 on: October 27, 2016, 04:01:25 PM »

Finally an Iowa poll!
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Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #61 on: October 27, 2016, 04:10:20 PM »

5% undecided for GA, if they split 4-1 Trump, he wins 48-44 in the three-way. Even if they somehow split 3-2 Clinton, it's a 46-46 tie. The way it would work out for Clinton is if Johnson gets a notable amount of late deciders, if we split it 3-1-1 (Clinton-Trump-Johnson), then Clinton ekes it out 46-45.

As you can see, Trump is probably still the favorite on some level in this state.
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mark_twain
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« Reply #62 on: October 27, 2016, 04:21:04 PM »


This poll confirmed my hunch that Clinton has a realistic chance of winning GA!

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Gass3268
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« Reply #63 on: October 27, 2016, 04:24:34 PM »

5% undecided for GA, if they split 4-1 Trump, he wins 48-44 in the three-way. Even if they somehow split 3-2 Clinton, it's a 46-46 tie. The way it would work out for Clinton is if Johnson gets a notable amount of late deciders, if we split it 3-1-1 (Clinton-Trump-Johnson), then Clinton ekes it out 46-45.

As you can see, Trump is probably still the favorite on some level in this state.

What happens if they just don't vote, which is just as possible at this point in the game.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #64 on: October 27, 2016, 04:42:10 PM »

this is waaaay better than even I expected. Wow!

somehow Nate Silver's math isn't adding up to me - all of these polls should improve Clinton's chances.

The United States is tops in the world in confidence in our ability to do mathematics.
USA! USA! USA! USA!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
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Maxwell
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« Reply #65 on: October 27, 2016, 04:46:44 PM »

this is waaaay better than even I expected. Wow!

somehow Nate Silver's math isn't adding up to me - all of these polls should improve Clinton's chances.

The United States is tops in the world in confidence in our ability to do mathematics.
USA! USA! USA! USA!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

Are you critiquing Silver or me?

I mean I guess the big swinger is the Missouri poll showing Trump up 11, but really why should a Missouri poll swing it that much when we basically know Trump is going to win Missouri?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #66 on: October 27, 2016, 04:54:30 PM »

5% undecided for GA, if they split 4-1 Trump, he wins 48-44 in the three-way. Even if they somehow split 3-2 Clinton, it's a 46-46 tie. The way it would work out for Clinton is if Johnson gets a notable amount of late deciders, if we split it 3-1-1 (Clinton-Trump-Johnson), then Clinton ekes it out 46-45.

As you can see, Trump is probably still the favorite on some level in this state.

Yes, I'd agree with this from my perception on the ground (which is admittedly limited to my social circle and the people I work with).  I think Trump has slightly more support overall.  Whether that support translates into more votes is a different and more interesting question.  There seems to be more enthusiasm among the Clinton supporters.  I think it really could go either way.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #67 on: October 27, 2016, 05:01:01 PM »

this is waaaay better than even I expected. Wow!

somehow Nate Silver's math isn't adding up to me - all of these polls should improve Clinton's chances.

The United States is tops in the world in confidence in our ability to do mathematics.
USA! USA! USA! USA!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

Are you critiquing Silver or me?

I mean I guess the big swinger is the Missouri poll showing Trump up 11, but really why should a Missouri poll swing it that much when we basically know Trump is going to win Missouri?
It wasn't meant as critique of this particular post, but about Nate being a clickbait.
I mean it is more or less the same model that was used in 2012 etc. Plus Nate is probably extra cautious bc of ~Brexit'ish phenomena.

I think, Pew was the mostly responsible for it. It has pretty big sample/weight.
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State correlation?
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #68 on: October 27, 2016, 05:52:44 PM »

5% undecided for GA, if they split 4-1 Trump, he wins 48-44 in the three-way. Even if they somehow split 3-2 Clinton, it's a 46-46 tie. The way it would work out for Clinton is if Johnson gets a notable amount of late deciders, if we split it 3-1-1 (Clinton-Trump-Johnson), then Clinton ekes it out 46-45.

As you can see, Trump is probably still the favorite on some level in this state.

Yeah, I do think Trump is still in the driver's seat in GA. That 50-44 in the NC two way is devastating if accurate, though. He can't win without it, and the window is closing fast.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #69 on: October 27, 2016, 05:55:38 PM »

New Poll: Georgia President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-10-26

Summary: D: 43%, R: 44%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #70 on: October 27, 2016, 05:56:21 PM »

New Poll: Iowa President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-10-26

Summary: D: 44%, R: 44%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #71 on: October 27, 2016, 05:57:02 PM »

New Poll: North Carolina President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-10-26

Summary: D: 47%, R: 43%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #72 on: October 27, 2016, 05:57:32 PM »

New Poll: Virginia President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-10-26

Summary: D: 50%, R: 38%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Cosmopolitanism Will Win
Antonio V
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« Reply #73 on: October 27, 2016, 08:14:34 PM »

Great numbers, especially if it's supposed to have a R house effect.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #74 on: October 28, 2016, 02:20:39 AM »

People are still paying attention to Nate "Rhode Island is a swing state" Silver?
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