PA - Siena/Upshot; Clinton +7 (4-way and 2-way)
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Author Topic: PA - Siena/Upshot; Clinton +7 (4-way and 2-way)  (Read 3213 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« on: October 27, 2016, 07:05:02 AM »
« edited: October 27, 2016, 07:12:21 AM by Happy Sad Trumpista »
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/27/upshot/pennsylvania-poll.html
https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/PA_oct_release_final261.pdf
https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/PAUpshot1016_Crosstabs129.pdf


October 23-25, 824 likely voters

4-way:
Clinton 46%
Trump 39%
Johson 6%
Stein   3%
DK      5%

2-way:
Clinton 49%
Trump 42%

Senate:
McGint 47%
Toomey 44%
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2016, 07:08:32 AM »
Lovely Smiley
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2016, 07:12:44 AM »
PA is less midwest each year and more urban too.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2016, 07:13:51 AM »
Hillary is up 90-1 with black voters, zero black voters in Philadelphia said they would be voting for Trump.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2016, 07:16:21 AM »
especially interesting: white voters who didn't vote 2012 especially prefer hillary.

trumpism has created many many enemies.
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BoAtlantis
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2016, 07:23:25 AM »
PennHillvania
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2016, 07:27:37 AM »
OUTSTANDING!  FREIWALL IST GUT!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2016, 07:37:37 AM »
This poll is almost perfectly in line with 538:s PA average (probably Trump's chances will slightly rise)

As I dislike the results, I really like Upshot's methodology and transparency Sad
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2016, 07:52:56 AM »
these polls showing black and latino support for Trump in the 20-30 range are just not credible.

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
Clinton has a 90-1 lead among black voters in Upshot/Siena poll of PA. Trump had no black support in Philadelphia
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2016, 08:01:43 AM »
Quote from: psychprofessor on October 27, 2016, 07:52:56 AM
these polls showing black and latino support for Trump in the 20-30 range are just not credible.

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
Clinton has a 90-1 lead among black voters in Upshot/Siena poll of PA. Trump had no black support in Philadelphia

Shows the importance of oversampling of different minority groups.
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mark_twain
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2016, 08:12:02 AM »

Great poll!
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2016, 08:47:23 AM »
New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Siena Research Institute on 2016-10-25

Summary: D: 46%, R: 39%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Ronnie
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2016, 09:07:38 AM »
Stick a fork in Donald.  He's done.
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Person Man
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« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2016, 09:37:40 AM »
This would collaborate a 5-6 point race. Or a 6-7 point race if Donald really does have that strength in Penntucky and Pittsburgh.
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rafta_rafta
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« Reply #14 on: October 27, 2016, 09:41:54 AM »
Thank you Philly!
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Ronnie
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« Reply #15 on: October 27, 2016, 09:46:51 AM »
« Edited: October 27, 2016, 10:09:36 AM by Ronnie »
Quote from: Fancy Bear on October 27, 2016, 09:37:40 AM
This would collaborate a 5-6 point race. Or a 6-7 point race if Donald really does have that strength in Penntucky and Pittsburgh.

I don't think it's a good idea to make assumptions about Clinton's national lead with this poll.  If she does, in fact, beat Trump by about 6 points in North Carolina, as Nate Cohn estimates, it would immediately suggest she's leading by more than that nationwide.  I think we just have to wait until the votes are counted to see how trends check out.
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Rand
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« Reply #16 on: October 27, 2016, 10:00:35 AM »
12 days to secure an eight point swing, Donald. Good luck!
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Fargobison
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« Reply #17 on: October 27, 2016, 10:05:45 AM »
Nice to have a high quality poll here.

Trump fans keep trying to tell me he is going to win PA and I keep laughing.

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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: October 27, 2016, 12:38:13 PM »
Way below LBJ's 30 point win.

Congrats President Trump. Cry
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Yank2133
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« Reply #19 on: October 27, 2016, 12:38:51 PM »
Lmao, RCP just move PA to toss-up.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #20 on: October 27, 2016, 12:48:38 PM »
so... North Carolina trending Democrat hard, Pennsylvania trending Republican slightly?
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #21 on: October 27, 2016, 12:54:32 PM »
Quote from: Fargobison on October 27, 2016, 10:05:45 AM
Nice to have a high quality poll here.
Trump fans keep trying to tell me he is going to win PA and I keep laughing.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #22 on: October 27, 2016, 01:03:21 PM »

They've long stopped pretending that they're not right wing hacks.
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