TX - Texas Tribune; Trump +3 (user search)
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  TX - Texas Tribune; Trump +3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: TX - Texas Tribune; Trump +3  (Read 4727 times)
afleitch
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« on: October 27, 2016, 08:33:56 AM »

For info the Latino split is 56-33 to Clinton. Latino Decisions has it at 68-18; a 40 point lead not 23. If so, she's likely ahead.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2016, 09:53:07 AM »

For info the Latino split is 56-33 to Clinton. Latino Decisions has it at 68-18; a 40 point lead not 23. If so, she's likely ahead.

If 68-18 is the correct split, the lead would be 50, not 40. 

Thanks for the correction.

This poll has Clinton up 23 on Trump with Latinos. In 2012 Obama was up 41. Clinton is up 50. In 2012 Latinos made up 27% of voters. This poll's sample is quite Trump friendly. If it's an Obama style margin then this poll would be 47-44 to Clinton (assuming no change in turnout). If it's Clinton by 50 then the poll would be 46-41 Clinton.
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afleitch
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2016, 09:59:26 AM »

This completely ignores that Trump is also underperforming among Whites.

Which is why Texas is this close a decade too early.
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