TX - Texas Tribune; Trump +3

[NOVA Green]

So I read this right it is an internet only poll that doesn't have a Spanish language option?

Maybe, I read this incorrectly, but potential downsides for both Trump and Clinton if both are the case, in one of the hardest states to poll in the country....

Still, it reinforces other data indicating that Texas is within low single digits, and it could well come down to the enthusiasm gap, GOTV, and "shy Trump" voters vs "hidden Latino" voters.

[NOVA Green]

These are the polls recorded on this site from 2008 after the DNC

Well Obama did capture almost 44% of the total vote in Texas in 2008, and it's not unrealistic to envision a potential 46-47% Clinton ceiling against the current Republican nominee, and if Tejas Latinos swing hard against Trump, along with suburban Anglos, and depressed enthusiasm among evangelicals in EastTex and elsewhere to see Clinton potentially eking out a narrow win here.

Not necessarily likely, considering that there a bunch of typically Republican voters here that might well close ranks in the final moments of the endgame, BUT unlike Georgia there is a potentially huge wildcard when it comes to Latino turnout levels and voting habits, which does not exists to any major extent in the political dynamics of Georgia when it comes to the final stretch of the race.

[NOVA Green]

Clinton won huge swathes of rural Texas in 1996, when he lost Texas by around 5 points. He won those East Texas rural deep south counties that border LA. Now those rural counties that Clinton won or was competitive in are deeply Republican. Hillary's county map will look a lot like Obama's map. She will just increase the margins in the big cities and suburbs and the Rio Grande valley.

Beyond that, she'd need some really big swings in the more educated suburban counties, like Williamson, Galveston, Denton and Collin.  

I agree with you on the concept, but not sure I would include Galveston on the list of heavily college educated suburban counties ( I would actually replace Galveston County with Montgomery County)...

Yes on the one hand you have the Clear Lake area, most famous for NASA, and some nice bayfront homes, but on the other hand you have Texas City which is more blue-collar oil refinery roughneck, League City that is a bit more Middle Class, Galveston itself, which has been a Democratic stronghold since the New Deal, and then a bunch of 2nd homes and some retirees in South Galveston Island.

So yes, it would definitely help Clinton to flip Galveston, to add to her likely significant margins in Metro-Houston....

It used to be a heavily Democratic county that went for Clinton in '92/'96, Dukakis in '88 (!!!), that trended Republican when Bush Jr. ran in 2000/2004, and basically mirrored statewide averages in 2008 and 2012.

This will definitely be an interesting Texas county to watch on election night, as a potential barometer of Texas with about average African-American voters (15%), lower than average, but lower turnout Latinos (18%) and a mixture of Anglo non-college workers in the oil industry, Port of Houston/Galveston, and then throw in a chunk of college educated Anglos once you get up towards Clear Lake area.

If Clinton appears to be winning Galveston County it will likely indicate that she will win Texas, since overall demographics here are actually a bit more favorable to Trump than his Texas average.