Why is the race tightening again? (user search)
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  Why is the race tightening again? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why is the race tightening again?  (Read 3298 times)
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

« on: October 26, 2016, 08:12:20 PM »

Please don't read below if you don't like to hear a negative view of the democratic parties chances in this election...


Sad to say, but a lot of Americans have fallen for the nationalist/libertarian talk radio and the idea that Obama is this or that. We're kind of lucky that Clinton isn't running against ted cruz, rubio or even Jeb as they'd be up 3-5% right now. You can see this everytime Trump behaves is followed by a recovery as a whole lot of our voting population thinks this way and would rather have a republican.

This would be a very bad election for democrats if it wasn't for Trump.

Of course, I expect to be attacked for saying this but this is how I see things at this moment. I expect Hillary to win but maybe by slightly better than Bush 2004 electoral levels whether than Obama's two wins.

lol, Cruz would be down by 10.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2016, 07:55:46 AM »

Please stop the concern trolling, it isn't.

The mere fact that the polling averages haven't consistently been 55 Clinton/37 Trump for the duration is concerning enough for me.

Which is kind of the context for your misery, and why your predictions have been so bloody bleak. Trump's best in the Huffpost average was 43% back in July after the Comey findings. The polling data we have of undecideds showing that they dislike both candidates intensely, but they loathe Trump.

You're going to get shifting around the margins - look at 2008, you had polls in the last 2 weeks that ranged from Obama +3 (Fox News... cough) to Obama +11. Basically what we're getting now.

Well, I still think she's at least 75% likely to win, and my expected outcome still has Clinton with >300 EV.  I'm just saying, this was probably the Democrats' only chance at a 1964/1936 style win in a human lifetime and they threw it away by picking Clinton (and not running anyone better than Sanders against her).

Not even close.  Pretty much everything is stacked against the Democrats this year, even without such a lame candidate as Hillary.  One party trying to win a third term in the White House is very difficult.  The populist right has been a very powerful force on the Republican side, and Donald Trump has played them masterfully.  He has won the mantle of the "change candidate," and that gives him a huge advantage.  Bernie Sanders might have given him a run for that mantle, but the populist left scares Americans, while the populist right is now mainstream white America.

Had Donald Trump kept a lid on inflammatory remarks, and had he had a firmer grasp of policy and been better in the debates, he would be winning this election handily.  He could have beaten any other Democrat - Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Russ Feingold, he would have wiped the floor with Martin O'Malley, John Hickenlooper, Andrew Cuomo...

This election cycle was a perfect storm for a Donald Trump.  He captured the mood of a nation and put it in a bottle.  His nomination wasn't a "golden opportunity" for Democrats to paint the map blue.  Not even a bit.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2016, 04:10:50 PM »

I do believe she will win. It is just a bit jarring to see some of the posts on here from folks planning their celebration for election night when it is in part still flying around.

Hillary will run up huge margins in CA NY and other blue states. That doesn't help her one bit in FL or OH. Again, do the math.

maths

Not in the US, mate.

The United States is tops in the world in confidence in our ability to do mathematics.

USA! USA! USA! USA!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2016, 08:06:53 AM »

Deplorable clickbait Nate Silver is in a good mood again...
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/

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The 60-day race oscillation won't get to an inflection point fast enough for Trump to have a chance.  If the election were held on Nov 28 Clinton would be in trouble. Smiley
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2016, 08:12:12 AM »

I do believe she will win. It is just a bit jarring to see some of the posts on here from folks planning their celebration for election night when it is in part still flying around.

Hillary will run up huge margins in CA NY and other blue states. That doesn't help her one bit in FL or OH. Again, do the math.

maths

Florida and Ohio don't get Trump to 270. He needs states like Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Colorado, Minnesota, Virginia, or Michigan, and he's currently down at least 6 in all of those. You're right that we shouldn't get complacent, but it's not razor-thin like you're implying.

Could Trump win any of these?

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