Why is the race tightening again? (user search)
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  Why is the race tightening again? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why is the race tightening again?  (Read 3302 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« on: October 26, 2016, 06:51:47 PM »

Please don't read below if you don't like to hear a negative view of the democratic parties chances in this election...


Sad to say, but a lot of Americans have fallen for the nationalist/libertarian talk radio and the idea that Obama is this or that. We're kind of lucky that Clinton isn't running against ted cruz, rubio or even Jeb as they'd be up 3-5% right now. You can see this everytime Trump behaves is followed by a recovery as a whole lot of our voting population thinks this way and would rather have a republican.

This would be a very bad election for democrats if it wasn't for Trump.

Of course, I expect to be attacked for saying this but this is how I see things at this moment. I expect Hillary to win but maybe by slightly better then Bush 2004 electoral levels whether then Obama's two wins.

You need to actually look at the data. Stop panicking, unless you're the type who thrives on it, ie the kind of Democrat who doesn't deserve nice things.

Clinton is winning by at least 6, this 3-5% nonsense is pretty baseless.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2016, 06:58:08 PM »

In the 4 way, Trump's down 5 with about 6 percent undecideds. That's bad.

Especially what we know about those undecideds, particularly in key states.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2016, 07:13:56 PM »

Everyone here's already forgotten about the premium hike with Obamacare?

I thought that too, but somebody pointed out in another thread that most of the polls ended on or before yesterday.

Again - it's too complicated to have an impact, the media really hasn't paid that much attention to it after 24 hours and most people won't be paying ANYWHERE near the increases being suggested.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2016, 09:39:20 PM »

Please stop the concern trolling, it isn't.

The mere fact that the polling averages haven't consistently been 55 Clinton/37 Trump for the duration is concerning enough for me.

Which is kind of the context for your misery, and why your predictions have been so bloody bleak. Trump's best in the Huffpost average was 43% back in July after the Comey findings. The polling data we have of undecideds showing that they dislike both candidates intensely, but they loathe Trump.

You're going to get shifting around the margins - look at 2008, you had polls in the last 2 weeks that ranged from Obama +3 (Fox News... cough) to Obama +11. Basically what we're getting now.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2016, 09:50:51 PM »

Please stop the concern trolling, it isn't.

The mere fact that the polling averages haven't consistently been 55 Clinton/37 Trump for the duration is concerning enough for me.

Which is kind of the context for your misery, and why your predictions have been so bloody bleak. Trump's best in the Huffpost average was 43% back in July after the Comey findings. The polling data we have of undecideds showing that they dislike both candidates intensely, but they loathe Trump.

You're going to get shifting around the margins - look at 2008, you had polls in the last 2 weeks that ranged from Obama +3 (Fox News... cough) to Obama +11. Basically what we're getting now.

Well, I still think she's at least 75% likely to win, and my expected outcome still has Clinton with >300 EV.  I'm just saying, this was probably the Democrats' only chance at a 1964/1936 style win in a human lifetime and they threw it away by picking Clinton (and not running anyone better than Sanders against her).

Ah... I see.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2016, 09:56:02 PM »

The race is tightening because Hillary Clinton is an unappealing candidate to Democrats.  The party forced her on the rank and file, going into the tank for her and clearing the field.  This was fine before the e-mail matter went worse than anticipated, but now, Democrats have to deal with voting for a candidate much of America views as having committed a felony, and whose pointing the finger at Donald Trump's issues with women bring up the Bill Clinton Sex Scandals in voters' minds.

In that vein, I think that many wavering Democrats will, in the end, suck it up for Hillary as I did for Trump.  But the polls are tightening NOW because Hillary IS unsavory.  And she's an unsavory candidate that the party forced on the rank and file.  Her unsavory character, the resurrection of the 1990s Bill Clinton issues, et al, have all but taken away the luster of Hillary becoming the First Woman President.

As I said earlier, there's fairly weak evidence of tightening.  There's also absolutely no indication the tightening, if it exists, is because of the factors you identify.  The polls show that Trump has perhaps gained a little bit of previously disaffected Republicans "coming home."

If she still wins, she'll be so happy she hung on that the "First" aspect will be minimized.  No one really wants to be the First Woman to make it across the Atlantic in a lifeboat.

If she wins by the current polls-projected margin, or even a slightly tightened margin, I don't think the reaction will be anything like, "phew, that was close...so let's not celebrate the 'first woman' thing."  Why would they?  Some long game to avoid setting high expectations?  That's silly.

Given how many Republicans have conspicuously declined to endorse Trump, and the fact that Democrats aren't over 50% in polling, I would say that the unsavoriness of Clinton is the only way to explain it.

How many times was Obama over 50% in 2012? Not often and considering a more solid performance from third parties this time, getting over 50% would be a magnificent performance.

You're moving the goal posts around, careful, one may fall on you.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2016, 10:01:09 PM »

I have 2 theories:

1) Obamacare premium hikes. Those hikes may have scared some undecideds to Trump's camp. Heck maybe even some of "weak" Clinton supporters may have switched sides because of it.

2) This could be a "spiral of silence" starting to make noise. Some of shy Trump supporters are now openly expressing support for Trump, even to a pollster when they probably would not have in the past. The reason for this maybe is because the hotmic tapes are now old news? They may have read some Wikileaks about Clinton?

No. Good lord, I wish people would stop over-analysing this. Some GOPhers are coming home, quite a few aren't. The undecideds are coming down from the fence, and the third parties are dropping. This is all marginal in the grand scheme of things.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2016, 05:44:38 AM »

The people just want to know Trump is sane (& he isn't) & desperately want reasons to vote Clinton.

People have to take into account that she is the most unelectable corrupt dishonest & fraudulent Dem Pres candidate in recent history. As long as Trump is sane & doesn't have major screwups he will make it close!

You're a sad, obsessive and delusional weirdo.
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