Why is the race tightening again?
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  Why is the race tightening again?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #25 on: October 26, 2016, 07:31:28 PM »

If I was a Red hack, I would start to panic, when Seriously? is back on track again.

His last post is from October 23, 2016.

It will be Trump's serious comeback Cheesy
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #26 on: October 26, 2016, 07:31:57 PM »

if arrogance would make you lose voters, trump would poll 10 under zero.
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White Trash
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« Reply #27 on: October 26, 2016, 07:32:07 PM »

You are literally an idiot if you vote for Trump.  A vote for him means you have no concept of how the world actually works.

Sadly, roughly half of the country is stupid and deranged.  That's the reason he got nominated in the first place.

Let's chill out a bit okay? Civility is a virtue.
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Lachi
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« Reply #28 on: October 26, 2016, 07:33:31 PM »

Please stop the concern trolling, it isn't.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #29 on: October 26, 2016, 07:33:55 PM »

You are literally an idiot if you vote for Trump.  A vote for him means you have no concept of how the world actually works.

Sadly, roughly half of the country is stupid and deranged.  That's the reason he got nominated in the first place.

Let's chill out a bit okay? Civility is a virtue.
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Lothal1
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« Reply #30 on: October 26, 2016, 07:39:36 PM »

lots of arrogance shown here. IMO, I'd expect the worse on election day based on the voting patterns of both parties.
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Rand
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« Reply #31 on: October 26, 2016, 07:45:28 PM »

Arrogancy by Democrats? Bad polling?

Bad polling? No. Arrogance? Somewhat...a lot of us have been teased with and want a double-digit Clinton landslide, but even a 1% PV/272-266 EV victory for her is a major win as it ultimately denies Donald Trump the presidency. In reality, her leads on Real Clear Politics, HuffPollster, and fivethirtyeight have increased and she remains the favorite on Electoral-Vote.com with over 320 EV. She can lose Florida, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, and Iowa at this point and still win. Extremely unlikely. The race could tighten in the next 13 days, but you're just not looking at the right data if you think it will tighten so drastically that Trump sweeps the major battlegrounds and picks up a Solid Dem state. She's going to win, but perhaps not by the 8%+ some of us want.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #32 on: October 26, 2016, 08:12:20 PM »

Please don't read below if you don't like to hear a negative view of the democratic parties chances in this election...


Sad to say, but a lot of Americans have fallen for the nationalist/libertarian talk radio and the idea that Obama is this or that. We're kind of lucky that Clinton isn't running against ted cruz, rubio or even Jeb as they'd be up 3-5% right now. You can see this everytime Trump behaves is followed by a recovery as a whole lot of our voting population thinks this way and would rather have a republican.

This would be a very bad election for democrats if it wasn't for Trump.

Of course, I expect to be attacked for saying this but this is how I see things at this moment. I expect Hillary to win but maybe by slightly better than Bush 2004 electoral levels whether than Obama's two wins.

lol, Cruz would be down by 10.
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Pericles
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« Reply #33 on: October 26, 2016, 08:40:24 PM »

Wavering Republicans, the 1% of people who are still undecided are coming back to Trump. Hillary is weak so she's unlikely to win a landslide, just she's now very likely to get a margin around Obama 2012 or over. Trump is no longer in active meltdown so it is possible people who want to be able to vote for him will ultimately support him. We need more data to be certain, but Trump is supposed to lose by a 4% margin but if he melts down he loses by more. If he can just hold himself together somewhat for two weeks he can still prevent a landslide, while still losing badly.
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morgieb
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« Reply #34 on: October 26, 2016, 08:52:29 PM »

Trump tends to tighten a bit when he's not visably in meltdown mode. He still won't win though.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #35 on: October 26, 2016, 09:14:51 PM »

Some people are really going to go mentally insane on election night when Trump doesn't win. I can't wait to see the reactions and to make fun.

Why would they? Most of the few people on here predicting a Trump victory would merely be pleasantly surprised as opposed to going mentally insane. Predicting something =/= wanting it to happen (I notice that a lot of Americans seem to confuse the two).
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Hammy
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« Reply #36 on: October 26, 2016, 09:36:00 PM »

Please stop the concern trolling, it isn't.

The mere fact that the polling averages haven't consistently been 55 Clinton/37 Trump for the duration is concerning enough for me.

It's a 3-4-way race--you're not going to have anybody getting 55%. I'm becoming more confident Clinton will win if the dynamics don't change, as long as people actually show up to vote--it just remains to be seen by how much now.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #37 on: October 26, 2016, 09:38:42 PM »

The race is tightening because Hillary Clinton is an unappealing candidate to Democrats.  The party forced her on the rank and file, going into the tank for her and clearing the field.  This was fine before the e-mail matter went worse than anticipated, but now, Democrats have to deal with voting for a candidate much of America views as having committed a felony, and whose pointing the finger at Donald Trump's issues with women bring up the Bill Clinton Sex Scandals in voters' minds.

In the end, I early voted for Trump.  I was not going to vote for Hillary, but I had, at one point, made up my mind to vote for Johnson.  My heart wasn't in that, however; I'm not a Libertarian and Johnson came off as a Pot Burnout.  But it wasn't without a lot of thought.  Trump's persona isn't what I'm like and isn't what I want my 11 year old son to become like.

In that vein, I think that many wavering Democrats will, in the end, suck it up for Hillary as I did for Trump.  But the polls are tightening NOW because Hillary IS unsavory.  And she's an unsavory candidate that the party forced on the rank and file.  Her unsavory character, the resurrection of the 1990s Bill Clinton issues, et al, have all but taken away the luster of Hillary becoming the First Woman President.  If she still wins, she'll be so happy she hung on that the "First" aspect will be minimized.  No one really wants to be the First Woman to make it across the Atlantic in a lifeboat.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #38 on: October 26, 2016, 09:39:20 PM »

Please stop the concern trolling, it isn't.

The mere fact that the polling averages haven't consistently been 55 Clinton/37 Trump for the duration is concerning enough for me.

Which is kind of the context for your misery, and why your predictions have been so bloody bleak. Trump's best in the Huffpost average was 43% back in July after the Comey findings. The polling data we have of undecideds showing that they dislike both candidates intensely, but they loathe Trump.

You're going to get shifting around the margins - look at 2008, you had polls in the last 2 weeks that ranged from Obama +3 (Fox News... cough) to Obama +11. Basically what we're getting now.
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Alcon
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« Reply #39 on: October 26, 2016, 09:44:17 PM »

The race is tightening because Hillary Clinton is an unappealing candidate to Democrats.  The party forced her on the rank and file, going into the tank for her and clearing the field.  This was fine before the e-mail matter went worse than anticipated, but now, Democrats have to deal with voting for a candidate much of America views as having committed a felony, and whose pointing the finger at Donald Trump's issues with women bring up the Bill Clinton Sex Scandals in voters' minds.

In that vein, I think that many wavering Democrats will, in the end, suck it up for Hillary as I did for Trump.  But the polls are tightening NOW because Hillary IS unsavory.  And she's an unsavory candidate that the party forced on the rank and file.  Her unsavory character, the resurrection of the 1990s Bill Clinton issues, et al, have all but taken away the luster of Hillary becoming the First Woman President.

As I said earlier, there's fairly weak evidence of tightening.  There's also absolutely no indication the tightening, if it exists, is because of the factors you identify.  The polls show that Trump has perhaps gained a little bit of previously disaffected Republicans "coming home."

If she still wins, she'll be so happy she hung on that the "First" aspect will be minimized.  No one really wants to be the First Woman to make it across the Atlantic in a lifeboat.

If she wins by the current polls-projected margin, or even a slightly tightened margin, I don't think the reaction will be anything like, "phew, that was close...so let's not celebrate the 'first woman' thing."  Why would they?  Some long game to avoid setting high expectations?  That's silly.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #40 on: October 26, 2016, 09:50:51 PM »

Please stop the concern trolling, it isn't.

The mere fact that the polling averages haven't consistently been 55 Clinton/37 Trump for the duration is concerning enough for me.

Which is kind of the context for your misery, and why your predictions have been so bloody bleak. Trump's best in the Huffpost average was 43% back in July after the Comey findings. The polling data we have of undecideds showing that they dislike both candidates intensely, but they loathe Trump.

You're going to get shifting around the margins - look at 2008, you had polls in the last 2 weeks that ranged from Obama +3 (Fox News... cough) to Obama +11. Basically what we're getting now.

Well, I still think she's at least 75% likely to win, and my expected outcome still has Clinton with >300 EV.  I'm just saying, this was probably the Democrats' only chance at a 1964/1936 style win in a human lifetime and they threw it away by picking Clinton (and not running anyone better than Sanders against her).

Ah... I see.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #41 on: October 26, 2016, 09:52:41 PM »

It's not; media just wants to spin the false premise that it is to keep people tuned in to boost ratings that way Election Night ratings will be through the roof. The race has been over for weeks now.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #42 on: October 26, 2016, 09:53:46 PM »

The race is tightening because Hillary Clinton is an unappealing candidate to Democrats.  The party forced her on the rank and file, going into the tank for her and clearing the field.  This was fine before the e-mail matter went worse than anticipated, but now, Democrats have to deal with voting for a candidate much of America views as having committed a felony, and whose pointing the finger at Donald Trump's issues with women bring up the Bill Clinton Sex Scandals in voters' minds.

In that vein, I think that many wavering Democrats will, in the end, suck it up for Hillary as I did for Trump.  But the polls are tightening NOW because Hillary IS unsavory.  And she's an unsavory candidate that the party forced on the rank and file.  Her unsavory character, the resurrection of the 1990s Bill Clinton issues, et al, have all but taken away the luster of Hillary becoming the First Woman President.

As I said earlier, there's fairly weak evidence of tightening.  There's also absolutely no indication the tightening, if it exists, is because of the factors you identify.  The polls show that Trump has perhaps gained a little bit of previously disaffected Republicans "coming home."

If she still wins, she'll be so happy she hung on that the "First" aspect will be minimized.  No one really wants to be the First Woman to make it across the Atlantic in a lifeboat.

If she wins by the current polls-projected margin, or even a slightly tightened margin, I don't think the reaction will be anything like, "phew, that was close...so let's not celebrate the 'first woman' thing."  Why would they?  Some long game to avoid setting high expectations?  That's silly.

Given how many Republicans have conspicuously declined to endorse Trump, and the fact that Democrats aren't over 50% in polling, I would say that the unsavoriness of Clinton is the only way to explain it.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #43 on: October 26, 2016, 09:56:02 PM »

The race is tightening because Hillary Clinton is an unappealing candidate to Democrats.  The party forced her on the rank and file, going into the tank for her and clearing the field.  This was fine before the e-mail matter went worse than anticipated, but now, Democrats have to deal with voting for a candidate much of America views as having committed a felony, and whose pointing the finger at Donald Trump's issues with women bring up the Bill Clinton Sex Scandals in voters' minds.

In that vein, I think that many wavering Democrats will, in the end, suck it up for Hillary as I did for Trump.  But the polls are tightening NOW because Hillary IS unsavory.  And she's an unsavory candidate that the party forced on the rank and file.  Her unsavory character, the resurrection of the 1990s Bill Clinton issues, et al, have all but taken away the luster of Hillary becoming the First Woman President.

As I said earlier, there's fairly weak evidence of tightening.  There's also absolutely no indication the tightening, if it exists, is because of the factors you identify.  The polls show that Trump has perhaps gained a little bit of previously disaffected Republicans "coming home."

If she still wins, she'll be so happy she hung on that the "First" aspect will be minimized.  No one really wants to be the First Woman to make it across the Atlantic in a lifeboat.

If she wins by the current polls-projected margin, or even a slightly tightened margin, I don't think the reaction will be anything like, "phew, that was close...so let's not celebrate the 'first woman' thing."  Why would they?  Some long game to avoid setting high expectations?  That's silly.

Given how many Republicans have conspicuously declined to endorse Trump, and the fact that Democrats aren't over 50% in polling, I would say that the unsavoriness of Clinton is the only way to explain it.

How many times was Obama over 50% in 2012? Not often and considering a more solid performance from third parties this time, getting over 50% would be a magnificent performance.

You're moving the goal posts around, careful, one may fall on you.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #44 on: October 26, 2016, 09:59:08 PM »

I have 2 theories:

1) Obamacare premium hikes. Those hikes may have scared some undecideds to Trump's camp. Heck maybe even some of "weak" Clinton supporters may have switched sides because of it.

2) This could be a "spiral of silence" starting to make noise. Some of shy Trump supporters are now openly expressing support for Trump, even to a pollster when they probably would not have in the past. The reason for this maybe is because the hotmic tapes are now old news? They may have read some Wikileaks about Clinton?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #45 on: October 26, 2016, 10:01:09 PM »

I have 2 theories:

1) Obamacare premium hikes. Those hikes may have scared some undecideds to Trump's camp. Heck maybe even some of "weak" Clinton supporters may have switched sides because of it.

2) This could be a "spiral of silence" starting to make noise. Some of shy Trump supporters are now openly expressing support for Trump, even to a pollster when they probably would not have in the past. The reason for this maybe is because the hotmic tapes are now old news? They may have read some Wikileaks about Clinton?

No. Good lord, I wish people would stop over-analysing this. Some GOPhers are coming home, quite a few aren't. The undecideds are coming down from the fence, and the third parties are dropping. This is all marginal in the grand scheme of things.
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Hammy
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« Reply #46 on: October 26, 2016, 10:02:11 PM »

The race is tightening because Hillary Clinton is an unappealing candidate to Democrats.  The party forced her on the rank and file, going into the tank for her and clearing the field.  This was fine before the e-mail matter went worse than anticipated, but now, Democrats have to deal with voting for a candidate much of America views as having committed a felony, and whose pointing the finger at Donald Trump's issues with women bring up the Bill Clinton Sex Scandals in voters' minds.

In that vein, I think that many wavering Democrats will, in the end, suck it up for Hillary as I did for Trump.  But the polls are tightening NOW because Hillary IS unsavory.  And she's an unsavory candidate that the party forced on the rank and file.  Her unsavory character, the resurrection of the 1990s Bill Clinton issues, et al, have all but taken away the luster of Hillary becoming the First Woman President.

As I said earlier, there's fairly weak evidence of tightening.  There's also absolutely no indication the tightening, if it exists, is because of the factors you identify.  The polls show that Trump has perhaps gained a little bit of previously disaffected Republicans "coming home."

If she still wins, she'll be so happy she hung on that the "First" aspect will be minimized.  No one really wants to be the First Woman to make it across the Atlantic in a lifeboat.

If she wins by the current polls-projected margin, or even a slightly tightened margin, I don't think the reaction will be anything like, "phew, that was close...so let's not celebrate the 'first woman' thing."  Why would they?  Some long game to avoid setting high expectations?  That's silly.

Given how many Republicans have conspicuously declined to endorse Trump, and the fact that Democrats aren't over 50% in polling, I would say that the unsavoriness of Clinton is the only way to explain it.

How many times was Obama over 50% in 2012? Not often and considering a more solid performance from third parties this time, getting over 50% would be a magnificent performance.

You're moving the goal posts around, careful, one may fall on you.

Something else to remember in addition to third parties, is that we have numerous R-leaning (via methodology and the pollsters own admissions) daily tracking polls, which is obviously increasing Trump's standing from how weekly/monthly polls would be and keeping it closer than it may actually be.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #47 on: October 26, 2016, 10:07:08 PM »

I have 2 theories:

1) Obamacare premium hikes. Those hikes may have scared some undecideds to Trump's camp. Heck maybe even some of "weak" Clinton supporters may have switched sides because of it.

2) This could be a "spiral of silence" starting to make noise. Some of shy Trump supporters are now openly expressing support for Trump, even to a pollster when they probably would not have in the past. The reason for this maybe is because the hotmic tapes are now old news? They may have read some Wikileaks about Clinton?

No. Good lord, I wish people would stop over-analysing this. Some GOPhers are coming home, quite a few aren't. The undecideds are coming down from the fence, and the third parties are dropping. This is all marginal in the grand scheme of things.


Well this is no doubt the "October surprise" against Hillary's favor. It could hurt her, but not as bad as the hotmic did for Trump.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #48 on: October 27, 2016, 07:55:46 AM »

Please stop the concern trolling, it isn't.

The mere fact that the polling averages haven't consistently been 55 Clinton/37 Trump for the duration is concerning enough for me.

Which is kind of the context for your misery, and why your predictions have been so bloody bleak. Trump's best in the Huffpost average was 43% back in July after the Comey findings. The polling data we have of undecideds showing that they dislike both candidates intensely, but they loathe Trump.

You're going to get shifting around the margins - look at 2008, you had polls in the last 2 weeks that ranged from Obama +3 (Fox News... cough) to Obama +11. Basically what we're getting now.

Well, I still think she's at least 75% likely to win, and my expected outcome still has Clinton with >300 EV.  I'm just saying, this was probably the Democrats' only chance at a 1964/1936 style win in a human lifetime and they threw it away by picking Clinton (and not running anyone better than Sanders against her).

Not even close.  Pretty much everything is stacked against the Democrats this year, even without such a lame candidate as Hillary.  One party trying to win a third term in the White House is very difficult.  The populist right has been a very powerful force on the Republican side, and Donald Trump has played them masterfully.  He has won the mantle of the "change candidate," and that gives him a huge advantage.  Bernie Sanders might have given him a run for that mantle, but the populist left scares Americans, while the populist right is now mainstream white America.

Had Donald Trump kept a lid on inflammatory remarks, and had he had a firmer grasp of policy and been better in the debates, he would be winning this election handily.  He could have beaten any other Democrat - Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Russ Feingold, he would have wiped the floor with Martin O'Malley, John Hickenlooper, Andrew Cuomo...

This election cycle was a perfect storm for a Donald Trump.  He captured the mood of a nation and put it in a bottle.  His nomination wasn't a "golden opportunity" for Democrats to paint the map blue.  Not even a bit.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #49 on: October 27, 2016, 08:05:33 AM »

Had Donald Trump kept a lid on inflammatory remarks, and had he had a firmer grasp of policy and been better in the debates, he would be winning this election handily.  He could have beaten any other Democrat - Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Russ Feingold, he would have wiped the floor with Martin O'Malley, John Hickenlooper, Andrew Cuomo...

Sad, but true. Farag'ish Trump would be a deal Sad
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