Poll Results of Early Voters thread

[Ozymandias]

FLORIDA

http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/11/03/poll-clinton-maintains-four-point-lead-in-florida-rubio-pulls-ahead/
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/OS-FL-General-11.3.16.pdf

Of the 55.2% (333/603) who said they voted early:

Clinton - 53
Trump - 44

[King]

COLORADO

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/02/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-tied-in-colorado-new-poll-shows/

Of the 54.5% (300/550) of the sample that voted early:

Clinton - 44
Trump - 37
Johnson - 4
Stein - 3

SENATE

Bennet - 53
Glenn - 36
Other - 4

How junky of a poll do you have to be if you get 8% undecided in a poll of people who already voted?

[Ozymandias]

How junky of a poll do you have to be if you get 8% undecided in a poll of people who already voted?

It's a very strange thing I noticed in several polls-- often something like 5-10% respondents refuse to say who they voted for,  but instead of throwing them out of the sample they're still kept in for some reason.

[ursulahx]

It's a very strange thing I noticed in several polls-- often something like 5-10% respondents refuse to say who they voted for,  but instead of throwing them out of the sample they're still kept in for some reason.

That'll be your shy Trump voters.

[Ozymandias]

COLORADO

http://magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Magellan-Strategies-Colorado-US-President-Survey-Summary-110316.pdf

Of the 64.4% (322/500) of respondents who said they already voted:

Clinton - 46  (+6.0)
Trump - 40
Johnson - 8
Stein - 2
Other - 2

[Ozymandias]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/polls-trump-ahead-arizona-texas-deadlocked-georgia-n677626

"Trump leads in the early voting, though barely in Arizona and Georgia

All three states allow early in-person voting, and Trump is ahead here in all three states - although narrowly in Arizona and Georgia.

In Arizona, 58 percent of likely voters say they've already voted, and they're breaking for Trump by a narrow 47 percent-to-44 percent margin.

In Georgia, 40 percent of likely voters have already voted, and Trump enjoys a two-point lead, 48 percent to 46 percent.

And in Texas, 54 percent of likely voters say they've already voted, and Trump is ahead here by 10 points, 52 percent to 42 percent."

[HisGrace]

This could be a disaster if Trump has no ground game. He could end up ahead in the polls in several states and yet lose them because of no GOTV operation.

That happened to him several times in the primaries.

[Ozymandias]

USA

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hint-momentum-clinton-issues-defining-factor-poll/story?id=43281152

"Then again, for more than a quarter of likely voters, this race is run: They’ve already voted, with a 50-45 percent Clinton-Trump estimate for this group."

[Ozymandias]

IOWA

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_f41eb67b0e694f8ca80b020facc8d937.pdf
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_76f9fa4702cf4db6a24d4e4a4825a97d.xlsx?dn=ECP_IA_11.4.xlsx

Of the 37.4% (262/700) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 57
Trump - 34
Stein - 4
Johnson - 3

SENATE

Grassley - 48
Judge - 45

[The Other Castro]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  3m3 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In Nevada we found Hillary leading 54/44 among early voters

[Ozymandias]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  3m3 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In Nevada we found Hillary leading 54/44 among early voters

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  28m28 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In North Carolina we found Hillary leading 59/40 among early voters

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  28m28 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In Wisconsin we found Hillary leading 60/34 among early voters

[Dr. Arch]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  3m3 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In Nevada we found Hillary leading 54/44 among early voters

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  28m28 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In North Carolina we found Hillary leading 59/40 among early voters

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  28m28 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In Wisconsin we found Hillary leading 60/34 among early voters

That's devastating in Wisconsin, and in NC too.

[Ozymandias]

http://www.wthr.com/article/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-trump-up-double-digits-over-clinton-in-indiana

INDIANA: "Clinton has a slight, 2-point lead with early voters"

[Ozymandias]

GEORGIA

http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/11/04/poll-trump-ahead-in-georgia-by-four/
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/OS-GA-General-11.4.16.pdf

Of the 58.7% (316/538) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 51
Trump - 43

[Ozymandias]

Possible evidence for a recent Clinton surge in Georgia?

Clinton's 8-point EV lead with 59% of Opinion Savvy poll is MUCH different than 6-point Trump EV lead that Survey USA found in 30% of their sample a few days ago.

[Devout Centrist]

Day-of voters better show up in droves and vote for Trump.

[Ozymandias]

NEW MEXICO

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/ZiaPoll.NM.11.02.2016.pdf

Of the 20.9% (230/1102) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 56
Trump - 33
Johnson - 6
Stein - 1
Other - 3

NOTE: This is a VERY low early voting percentage, given that 359,980 NM voters have already voted, which is 45.9% of TOTAL (early + election day) electorate (Source: http://www.electproject.org/early_2016).

[afleitch]

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  3m3 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In Nevada we found Hillary leading 54/44 among early voters

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  28m28 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In North Carolina we found Hillary leading 59/40 among early voters

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  28m28 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In Wisconsin we found Hillary leading 60/34 among early voters

That's devastating in Wisconsin, and in NC too.

The upshot is estimating the early vote lead in NC is 52-43 to Clinton, so that is brutal.

[Ozymandias]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_COMIVA_110416.pdf

COLORADO

Of the 73% (514/704) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 52
Trump - 41
Johnson - 3
Stein - 2
McMullin - 1

SENATE: Bennett - 55, Glenn - 38

MICHIGAN

Of the 32% (306/957) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 57
Trump - 36
Johnson - 3
Stein - 2

VIRGINIA

Of the 14% (173/1238) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 63
Trump - 32
Johnson - 2
McMullin - 1
Stein - 0

[Ozymandias]

COLORADO

https://salsa3.salsalabs.com/o/50742/images/Keating%20Research-Onsight%20Colorado%20Election%20Track%20November%202-3%202016%20XTABS%20For%20Release.pdf

Of the 68% (414/605) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 44
Trump - 40
Johnson - 6
Stein - 1

SENATE: Bennett - 50, Glenn - 41

[The Other Castro]

Fox National Poll: "She’s also ahead by 11 points among the one-in-five who have already voted (50-39 percent)."

[Ozymandias]

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article112635048.html

USA

34% say they have already voted. Clinton winning 50-42 among people that have already voted.

[Ozymandias]

WASHINGTON

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=befe5f60-092c-48e8-b36f-b5ae8e28048e

Of the 51% (408/800) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 57
Trump - 35
Johnson - 3
Stein - 2
Other - 2

[Ozymandias]

IOWA

http://www.loras.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/LCP-NOV-IA-2016.pdf

Of the 26.2% (131/500) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton = 57% (69/121)
Trump = 29% (35/121)
Other = 9% (11/121)

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Day-of voters better show up in droves and vote for Trump.

That's when old fogeys vote, during the day.