AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
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  AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
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Author Topic: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15  (Read 3627 times)
DrScholl
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« Reply #25 on: October 26, 2016, 03:54:44 PM »

That's not close at all.
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dspNY
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« Reply #26 on: October 26, 2016, 03:57:48 PM »

Well then
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #27 on: October 26, 2016, 04:00:03 PM »

One junk tracking poll moves by 1 point: zoMG TRUMP COMEBACK!!!1!

Umpteenth respected pollster has Clinton up double digits: Uh... outlier! Polarization! Halloween Masks!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #28 on: October 26, 2016, 04:00:42 PM »

I love it how RCP has an article how the race has tightened even though Hillary essentially jumped 1% up in both their models over the past two days.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #29 on: October 26, 2016, 04:03:04 PM »

Probability sample could definitely explain it. THere has been an enthusiasm gap for a while
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #30 on: October 26, 2016, 04:07:32 PM »

Undecideds XD
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Beefalow and the Consumer
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« Reply #31 on: October 26, 2016, 04:20:52 PM »

Rigged.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #32 on: October 26, 2016, 04:21:24 PM »

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  1m1 minute ago Washington, DC
Key note on the AP/GfK poll: it's a probability sample conducted online. Yet Trump doesn't overperform.

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  1m1 minute ago Washington, DC
To be clearer: AP/GfK is a good test of "hidden Trump" vote theory. But it's now Trump's worst poll

Interesting.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #33 on: October 26, 2016, 04:21:32 PM »

Junk.
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Edu
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« Reply #34 on: October 26, 2016, 04:32:46 PM »

But the panicky Beet clones around here told me that Trump was going to pull ahead in national polls by the middle of the week!


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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #35 on: October 26, 2016, 04:33:10 PM »

Well, I'll give AP/GfK this - they're not afraid to go out on a limb.  They had a significant Republican bias in '08 and '12, and now they're the strongest poll for Clinton.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #36 on: October 26, 2016, 04:36:38 PM »

We have a six, nine, and fifteen point Clinton lead based on the three non-tracker polls released today.

RIP Donny Trump
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #37 on: October 26, 2016, 04:37:04 PM »

Well, I'll give AP/GfK this - they're not afraid to go out on a limb.  They had a significant Republican bias in '08 and '12, and now they're the strongest poll for Clinton.


Definitely no "poll herding" going on here!

It smells a bit junk, although as others have noted we have seen a few legit pollsters showing Clinton in the low double-digit range, so at this point the consensus of legit polls seems indicate somewhere between a Clinton +6-8 range, with the ones showing her at 10+ probably using a more liberal LV screening model.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #38 on: October 26, 2016, 04:42:47 PM »
« Edited: October 26, 2016, 04:50:02 PM by Happy Sad Trumpista »

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  1m1 minute ago Washington, DC
Key note on the AP/GfK poll: it's a probability sample conducted online. Yet Trump doesn't overperform.

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  1m1 minute ago Washington, DC
To be clearer: AP/GfK is a good test of "hidden Trump" vote theory. But it's now Trump's worst poll

What does probability sample mean?

But anyways, A- IBD has weird results as well. So average and move on Wink
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dspNY
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« Reply #39 on: October 26, 2016, 04:52:35 PM »

Party ID was D+12 so I'm calling it an outlier. However if you adjust it to a D+5 to D+7 sample, Clinton leads by 8 to 10 points which is not an outlier
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Alcon
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« Reply #40 on: October 26, 2016, 05:05:49 PM »

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  1m1 minute ago Washington, DC
Key note on the AP/GfK poll: it's a probability sample conducted online. Yet Trump doesn't overperform.

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  1m1 minute ago Washington, DC
To be clearer: AP/GfK is a good test of "hidden Trump" vote theory. But it's now Trump's worst poll

What does probability sample mean?

But anyways, A- IBD has weird results as well. So average and move on Wink

http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/sampprob.php

I think Cohn is making that distinction because a lot of people have been (wrongly) talking down "online" polls in general.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #41 on: October 26, 2016, 05:10:14 PM »

538 is reporting this in their database with a Clinton +14, not a Clinton +15.
The difference (I think) is that 538 is using "Likely Voters" data, and not the "Total" numbers as posted in the OP (which I believe includes Registered Voters).

Here is the data for the 538 entry:
* GFK Group
* Sample 1,212 Likely Voters
* Oct 20-24

Clinton 51 (leads by +14)
Trump 37
Johnson 6
Stein 2

So it seems that a "trump at 37" is more believable than a "trump at 33."
Here is the link. Look at page 9.
http://ap-gfkpoll.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/October-2016-AP-GfK-Poll-Topline_Campaign.pdf
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #42 on: October 26, 2016, 05:54:16 PM »

onwards to 60%!!!
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Maxwell
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« Reply #43 on: October 26, 2016, 06:05:38 PM »


yes, to Trump's credit, I don't think he's hit Goldwater numbers.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #44 on: October 26, 2016, 06:24:50 PM »


yes, to Trump's credit, I don't think he's hit Goldwater numbers.

At the end of the day I believe that Trump will capture over 38.5% of the total Presidential vote (Goldwater), but I did go out on a limb that he would get <42% of the total Presidential vote in the thread on that question post Gropergate, and it should be noted he hasn't been 42% or over in any of the top-weighted 538 polls, with the exception of USC and Gravis that most objective observers view as bunk.

I'm still skeptical that he will win the lion's share of undecided and 3rd Party holdouts, although we will see some swings back and forth between the high '30s and very low '40s, depending upon Republicans that loath Trump as a candidate, but believe that Clinton is potentially a greater evil than their extremely flawed GE candidate.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #45 on: October 26, 2016, 06:34:41 PM »

It's also worth noting that Clinton's topline (51%) isn't really all that different from where other pollsters show her at.
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OneJ
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« Reply #46 on: October 26, 2016, 07:21:27 PM »

I know a +15 for Hillary can be hard to grasp, but think about it this way.

-Higher than normal Latino turnout (see Arizona and Texas)
-Record breaking lopsided support from Latinos against Trump for Hillary (projected to be between 76.5% to 87.5% for HRC)
-A possibility of record breaking lopsided support from Millennials (keep in mind that Trump is doing very terrible among this group at less than <30%, third partiers either don't vote or will vote for Clinton so it's possible that she will pass 2012 and maybe even 2008)
-Black turnout is still strong unlike what others want to believe
-College educated whites rejecting Trump
-White women propelling toward Clinton
-Early voting shows high turnout period

A double digit lead for HRC on November 8, 2016 is not out of the question.

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mark_twain
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« Reply #47 on: October 26, 2016, 10:44:09 PM »


Excellent poll!
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #48 on: October 26, 2016, 10:48:43 PM »

I know a +15 for Hillary can be hard to grasp, but think about it this way.

-Higher than normal Latino turnout (see Arizona and Texas)
-Record breaking lopsided support from Latinos against Trump for Hillary (projected to be between 76.5% to 87.5% for HRC)
-A possibility of record breaking lopsided support from Millennials (keep in mind that Trump is doing very terrible among this group at less than <30%, third partiers either don't vote or will vote for Clinton so it's possible that she will pass 2012 and maybe even 2008)
-Black turnout is still strong unlike what others want to believe
-College educated whites rejecting Trump
-White women propelling toward Clinton
-Early voting shows high turnout period

A double digit lead for HRC on November 8, 2016 is not out of the question.


And importantly, a 15 point win relies on Republican turnout cratering, which we're seeing some tentative evidence of.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #49 on: October 26, 2016, 11:14:29 PM »

The most recent Presidential election with that sort of gap was in 1956. Eisenhower basically won the states that Obama won in 2012 and everything west of the Mississippi that Obama did not win.

 

Because the Democrats have not won any election by anything near a 15% margin (closest were Bill Clinton (9% in 1996) and Obama 2008 (7%) we have no idea of what such a blowout would look like. We all know about the LBJ blowout of 1964; go back to FDR and the elections are very different.

I would never predict what states would move most in a Hillary Clinton blowout.   
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