FL - Bloomberg - Trump +2 (4 way)

[Gass3268]

Yeah, this doesn't jive with reports on the ground.

[Gass3268]

This poll has Trump winning Hispanics in the Miami area by 2!

[Gass3268]

Another point from Steve Schale:

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[Gass3268]

Another point from Steve Schale:

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Bloomberg's likely voter model sucks.

They're (well, Seltzer is) generally one of the most accurate pollsters.  It's tough to argue with past results, even if such results don't guarantee future performance.  Take a look at their Iowa Senate polls in 2014 that everyone else thought were outliers.

But they also had Trump winning Iowa in the primary and Clinton beating Sanders by a lot more than the actual margin.

[Gass3268]

Luckily, I'm pretty sure NYT Upshot / Siena is going to do one more voter file poll here before Election Day.

[Gass3268]

if unlikely voters don't vote they are right.

we can judge that before november 8th.

If you trust this guy (Obama's 08 FL guy):

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