FL - Bloomberg - Trump +2 (4 way)

[ApatheticAustrian]

if unlikely voters don't vote they are right.

we can judge that before november 8th.

[ApatheticAustrian]

yeah, as i said.

we just need to wait if this trend holds.

it's not really Selzier's fault if the electorate is "strange" this year. their model must work with "normal" assumptions not outlier years.

i am panicker in chief but i think, even while there are - for the 1000000th time - signs for a trump rebound, this should be too late.

[ApatheticAustrian]

the model is perfect...in non-presidential years and in experimental "normal" elections.

[ApatheticAustrian]

their model works just fine...they just assume a low latino turnout cause those normally don't vote.

[ApatheticAustrian]

All this tells me is that, if Trump finds a way to make it close nationwide, he probably will win Florida.  But, we already knew that any Trump victory map would include it.

in fact i think the opposite could be true.

he could do extremely well in the northeast and maybe NC and with some luck AZ and still lose florida cause he ran the anti-florida-campaign all along.

[ApatheticAustrian]

would love a new high-quality PA poll. (those went silent since utah and AZ and NC are gaining)

CO is more ove than ever.

[ApatheticAustrian]

that is not a "poll", that was a republican "feel-good"-pill.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i really really REALLY doubt that O-care is making any meaningful difference at this point.

especially in a way harmful to hillary.