FL - Bloomberg - Trump +2 (4 way)
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  FL - Bloomberg - Trump +2 (4 way)
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Author Topic: FL - Bloomberg - Trump +2 (4 way)  (Read 4877 times)
Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #50 on: October 26, 2016, 08:40:52 AM »

Selzer is really nothing special outside of Iowa.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #51 on: October 26, 2016, 08:41:26 AM »

the model is perfect...in non-presidential years and in experimental "normal" elections.
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alomas
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« Reply #52 on: October 26, 2016, 08:45:43 AM »

Selzer & Company is very good, A+ on 538 (unlike some Republican-leaning like Rasmussen), they have no bias according to this site. Today's poll can't be seen anything other than good news for Trump. I think the race is tightening, Clinton still ahead (and probably still just edging Florida) but Donald is not giving up.

This poll is definitely not a birthday present Hillary wanted haha.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #53 on: October 26, 2016, 08:48:56 AM »

You said many of us have dismissed Selzer as an outleir in the past, thats untrue.




Take a long walk off of a short pier, okay? This poll isn't anything like what we've seen recently, so it's an outlier.

peh, keep going through that thread and you'll see other examples, I don't want to spam this thread with all of them, though
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DavidB.
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« Reply #54 on: October 26, 2016, 08:51:50 AM »

You start wondering whether the remarkable polling differences in Florida stem from pollsters' inability to distinguish between various groups of Hispanics. If you have a sample with many Cubans you're going to get a different, more Republican result than when you have many Puerto Ricans. In most states this isn't much of a problem, but in Florida this could definitely be the case.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #55 on: October 26, 2016, 08:52:20 AM »

Junk poll. The latino numbers are laughable. Even putting the more conservative-leaning Cuban-American community into account. There will be a decent number of them voting for Rubio but not the Trumpster.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #56 on: October 26, 2016, 08:55:56 AM »

their model works just fine...they just assume a low latino turnout cause those normally don't vote.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #57 on: October 26, 2016, 09:06:35 AM »

their model works just fine...they just assume a low latino turnout cause those normally don't vote.
No, they didn't assume it.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #58 on: October 26, 2016, 09:07:56 AM »
« Edited: October 26, 2016, 09:09:54 AM by TheDeadFlagBlues »

Selzer's assumptions might work in Iowa but they might not be transferable to other parts of the country. For those who aren't aware, Selzer's methods are entirely based on voting file information and, to my knowledge, her screens are very strict. This is a great strategy for polling people for caucuses but it's risky before a presidential election because it has the effect of being unable to capture surges in first-time voters or low-voting propensity groups actually voting. This is probably sensible in Iowa. When was the last time there was a voter registration surge and turnout surge among old, lower income whites? However, it seems pretty clear that Latinos are turning out this year in Florida...

"Trump has only a -5 favorability rating in this poll (Clinton is at -9)." If you believe this, I feel sorry for you tbh.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #59 on: October 26, 2016, 09:08:39 AM »

their model works just fine...they just assume a low latino turnout cause those normally don't vote.

and that's a stupid assumption!
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #60 on: October 26, 2016, 09:10:05 AM »

All this tells me is that, if Trump finds a way to make it close nationwide, he probably will win Florida.  But, we already knew that any Trump victory map would include it.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #61 on: October 26, 2016, 09:12:13 AM »

All this tells me is that, if Trump finds a way to make it close nationwide, he probably will win Florida.  But, we already knew that any Trump victory map would include it.

in fact i think the opposite could be true.

he could do extremely well in the northeast and maybe NC and with some luck AZ and still lose florida cause he ran the anti-florida-campaign all along.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #62 on: October 26, 2016, 09:33:58 AM »

I can't believe I'm the first person to say this, but even if you assume this poll is correct and Trump does carry Florida, he would still probably lose the election.  The only way he wins is if he carries PA or CO, which no polling at all suggests he might do.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #63 on: October 26, 2016, 09:36:42 AM »

would love a new high-quality PA poll. (those went silent since utah and AZ and NC are gaining)

CO is more ove than ever.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #64 on: October 26, 2016, 09:43:54 AM »

I can't believe I'm the first person to say this, but even if you assume this poll is correct and Trump does carry Florida, he would still probably lose the election.  The only way he wins is if he carries PA or CO, which no polling at all suggests he might do.

Well, there was a poll a few days ago that showed him down by only two points in CO (RCP). But I consider it unlikely that the Trumpster wins CO. The demographic trend there is against him; to many latinos and college-educated whites.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #65 on: October 26, 2016, 09:54:21 AM »

that is not a "poll", that was a republican "feel-good"-pill.
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Donerail
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« Reply #66 on: October 26, 2016, 09:54:56 AM »

Trump only down 15 with Latino voters? Black voters only 12% of the electorate? Clinton only up single-digits with voters under 35? This is a JUNK POLL.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #67 on: October 26, 2016, 10:07:18 AM »

Latino Decisions weighs in LOL

Latino Decisions ‏@LatinoDecisions 34m34 minutes ago

Latest @bpolitics FL poll puts Latino vote 51-36 (HRC-DJT)
Avg. of last 2 LD polls in FL: 67-22 (+45) and our poll of PRs in FL was 74-17
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TC 25
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« Reply #68 on: October 26, 2016, 10:27:56 AM »

The Trump comeback narrative has commenced.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #69 on: October 26, 2016, 10:38:21 AM »

A new useless bones for the Trump dogs to chew on. Put it in the trash.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #70 on: October 26, 2016, 10:49:00 AM »

So Bloomberg has HRC up 9 nationally, but down 2 in FL?

Yeah....ok sure.
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Hammy
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« Reply #71 on: October 26, 2016, 11:04:27 AM »

Given the Obamacare news a few days ago I believe this poll--the state voted 52% (though non-binding) to repeal Obamacare so the law isn't that popular there. And it falls in line with what I've been saying: Florida is by no means an absolute guarantee for Clinton yet.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #72 on: October 26, 2016, 11:08:40 AM »

What ridiculous panic over a single poll. Literally 3 pages in as soon as I wake up early in the morning and the poll was posted at 3 AM.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #73 on: October 26, 2016, 11:11:20 AM »

Given the Obamacare news a few days ago I believe this poll--the state voted 52% (though non-binding) to repeal Obamacare so the law isn't that popular there. And it falls in line with what I've been saying: Florida is by no means an absolute guarantee for Clinton yet.

This makes zero sense since the Obamacare news came out yesterday and this poll was conducted from the 20-24th.
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Hammy
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« Reply #74 on: October 26, 2016, 11:17:56 AM »

Given the Obamacare news a few days ago I believe this poll--the state voted 52% (though non-binding) to repeal Obamacare so the law isn't that popular there. And it falls in line with what I've been saying: Florida is by no means an absolute guarantee for Clinton yet.

This makes zero sense since the Obamacare news came out yesterday and this poll was conducted from the 20-24th.

My mistake, I didn't notice the dates. That's probably worse news for Clinton there though, being the case.
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